WI-Marquette: Tied
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  WI-Marquette: Tied
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Tied  (Read 9543 times)
libertpaulian
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« Reply #75 on: October 31, 2018, 01:14:39 PM »


Let's compare these to 2016, shall we?

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Trump won this group by a 23% margin last time.

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Clinton and Trump tied with this group.

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Trump won this demographic by 16%.

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Clinton won this group by 23%.

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Clinton won this group by 55%.

So, some good and some bad for each candidate.  Evers has cut into the white non-college men slightly and has made significant inroads with non-college women.  However, Walker has made dents of his own with college-educated white men and women, as well as with non-whites.

Yep, and with college educated being more likely to vote...easy win.
Wisconsin is a less-educated state, though.  55% of Wisconsin voters had a high school diploma or less in 2016, a good year for Republicans in Wisconsin.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
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« Reply #76 on: October 31, 2018, 01:50:18 PM »

If Walker is re-elected, then Wisconsin will continue to be an embarrassment. I won't feel sorry for Wisconsinites at all.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #77 on: October 31, 2018, 02:17:28 PM »

Walker won't lose by double digits or even high single digits, it'll be like 3-5 points but he will most likely lose. He's a weak candidate who only won in GOP wave years. Evers isn't the most inspiring person but it doesn't matter because the national environment favors democrats and Walker is a turnoff for a lot of Obama-Trump voters in Northern and Western WI.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #78 on: October 31, 2018, 03:54:33 PM »

This poll is good to Walker.

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #79 on: October 31, 2018, 04:34:55 PM »

This poll is good to Walker.



Are you done panic posting yet, friend?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #80 on: October 31, 2018, 04:45:19 PM »

This poll is good to Walker.


You really think he's going to spin this negatively?!
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #81 on: October 31, 2018, 04:59:37 PM »

This poll is good to Walker.



Are you done panic posting yet, friend?

Not until Election Day! Smiley
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Sestak
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« Reply #82 on: October 31, 2018, 05:45:36 PM »

When was this conducted?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #83 on: October 31, 2018, 06:56:09 PM »

It baffles me that Baldwin-Walker voters exist.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #84 on: October 31, 2018, 07:19:58 PM »

This also has Walker's approval at 50/46 which seems... high.
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« Reply #85 on: October 31, 2018, 09:49:56 PM »

Fun fact: The previous Marquette poll of this race showed Walker up by 1.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #86 on: October 31, 2018, 10:03:46 PM »

I'm not convinced that this is good news for Walker. Usually it would be better for the incumbent heading into Election Day tied, but Wisconsin, like Iowa, is a state that seems to break for change when it comes down to it. It's why Walker did so well in the first place and part of (obv not all) why Trump won there.

This time, though, Evers is the change candidate.

Either way it will be a nailbiter.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #87 on: October 31, 2018, 10:28:24 PM »

Fun fact: The previous Marquette poll of this race showed Walker up by 1.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #88 on: October 31, 2018, 10:54:05 PM »

MasterJedi hungered so much for Scott Walker to be Governor back in 2008 and 2009. Now you guys just cannot get rid of him.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #89 on: November 01, 2018, 01:14:51 AM »

Walker will lose
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Badger
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« Reply #90 on: November 01, 2018, 04:53:12 AM »

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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #91 on: November 01, 2018, 09:09:22 AM »

I knew this thread would be an abortion factory and it certainly failed to disprove me. This race still Leans D. Especially when only one pollster can find Walker not trailing
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Gass3268
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« Reply #92 on: November 01, 2018, 09:12:17 AM »

I knew this thread would be an abortion factory and it certainly failed to disprove me. This race still Leans D. Especially when only one pollster can find Walker not trailing

It's actually better than I thought it would be. Tongue
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History505
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« Reply #93 on: November 01, 2018, 10:55:24 AM »

I think Evers makes it to the finish.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #94 on: November 01, 2018, 02:36:15 PM »

I'm just curious: What methodology does MU Law use to make the governor's race tilt R compared to other pollsters?

BTW I do think Evers is favored, but MU Law always destroys any confidence I have surrounding this race.....until the next poll shows Evers with a lead (which will most likely happen with the Emerson poll tomorrow).
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #95 on: November 01, 2018, 02:46:26 PM »

I'm just curious: What methodology does MU Law use to make the governor's race tilt R compared to other pollsters?

BTW I do think Evers is favored, but MU Law always destroys any confidence I have surrounding this race.....until the next poll shows Evers with a lead (which will most likely happen with the Emerson poll tomorrow).
Memerson?!  Seriously?! 

There'd better be a CNN, FOX News, or Marist poll this weekend to accompany that one.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #96 on: November 01, 2018, 02:50:51 PM »

I'm just curious: What methodology does MU Law use to make the governor's race tilt R compared to other pollsters?

BTW I do think Evers is favored, but MU Law always destroys any confidence I have surrounding this race.....until the next poll shows Evers with a lead (which will most likely happen with the Emerson poll tomorrow).
Memerson?!  Seriously?! 

There'd better be a CNN, FOX News, or Marist poll this weekend to accompany that one.


Marist is just as reliable as MU, right?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #97 on: November 01, 2018, 02:57:10 PM »

I'm just curious: What methodology does MU Law use to make the governor's race tilt R compared to other pollsters?

BTW I do think Evers is favored, but MU Law always destroys any confidence I have surrounding this race.....until the next poll shows Evers with a lead (which will most likely happen with the Emerson poll tomorrow).
Memerson?!  Seriously?! 

There'd better be a CNN, FOX News, or Marist poll this weekend to accompany that one.


Marist is just as reliable as MU, right?
Marist is a gold standard poll, IMO.  If a pollster like that shows even the slightest hint of a good sign for Walker, THEN I'd say it's time to hit the panic button.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #98 on: November 03, 2018, 09:22:59 PM »

Okay. So, I will apologize for my panic posts on this thread - I'm just hoping that MU is wrong and the race won't be this close. However, my concerns over this poll have waned down a little after doing some research and looking at some of the crosstabs, I've found some of them to be questionable.

First of all, I doubt 2 percent of the electorate will be Evers-Vukmir voters:



Secondly, I doubt Evers will do 10 points worse than Burke did in Milwaukee in 2014. Could something be off, or am I misinterepreting anything?


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CookieDamage
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« Reply #99 on: November 03, 2018, 11:10:33 PM »

Evers is still leading in the average. Plus he's performing 1 point better than the last Marquette Poll. Y'all need to chill.
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