WI-Marquette: Tied

[Scottholes 2.0]

This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

[Gass3268]

This is off:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1057689402489651201

[Ebsy]

Hopefully this is the year Marquette's reputation is utterly destroyed.

Selzer is going to be discredited completely this year.

You know, IceSpear, I don't go and dig up every wrong thing you said during 2016, of which there were very many, including your prejudiced railings against the people of West Virginia. I don't because you are such a tedious bore who is not worth a fraction of the effort.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Keep hedging, Marquette

Nope they just refuse to herd with lower quality pollsters.

[Devout Centrist]

What I want to know is...why are people so quick to denigrate Marquette when they are a state institution?

??

[Gass3268]

What I want to know is...why are people so quick to denigrate Marquette when they are a state institution?

As a alum of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, I am required to hate all things Marquette.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

So, basically, you're just waiting for more favourable numbers from pollsters you admit are of lower quality?

[Galaxie]

Favorables are about the same:

Evers - 42/41
Walker - 48/49

Not a good sign this close to Election Day how many people still have no opinion on Evers

[IceSpear]

Hopefully this is the year Marquette's reputation is utterly destroyed.

Selzer is going to be discredited completely this year.

You know, IceSpear, I don't go and dig up every wrong thing you said during 2016, of which there were very many, including your prejudiced railings against the people of West Virginia. I don't because you are such a tedious bore who is not worth a fraction of the effort.

No, the point isn't that you were wrong. The point is you haven't learned a lesson from dismissing a gold standard poll simply because you dislike the result. It's especially strange because this result isn't even particularly bad for the Democrats. Did you seriously think Evers was going to win by double digits? lol

[ElectionsGuy]

This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

That is not logical. There is clearly a margin of error here and this poll result is a tie. If Evers wins by 6-7, then yes, this poll will have been way off. But if he wins by 2-3, this poll was not bad. I think you're reading this as a Walker win when it's not.

[libertpaulian]

Favorables are about the same:

Evers - 42/41
Walker - 48/49

Not a good sign this close to Election Day how many people still have no opinion on Evers

I didn't have much of an opinion on Todd Young in 2016, yet I voted for him anyway.  Guess what?  He won in a landslide.

This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

That is not logical. There is clearly a margin of error here and this poll result is a tie. If Evers wins by 6-7, then yes, this poll will have been way off. But if he wins by 2-3, this poll was not bad. I think you're reading this as a Walker win when it's not.

Exactly.  This race is going to be a pure base turnout election, with a few moderates and undecideds thrown in.

[Zaybay]

Hopefully this is the year Marquette's reputation is utterly destroyed.

Selzer is going to be discredited completely this year.

You know, IceSpear, I don't go and dig up every wrong thing you said during 2016, of which there were very many, including your prejudiced railings against the people of West Virginia. I don't because you are such a tedious bore who is not worth a fraction of the effort.

No, the point isn't that you were wrong. The point is you haven't learned a lesson from dismissing a gold standard poll simply because you dislike the result. It's especially strange because this result isn't even particularly bad for the Democrats. Did you seriously think Evers was going to win by double digits? lol

I have to agree with Ebsy here, that is pretty weird IceSpear.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Favorables are about the same:

Evers - 42/41
Walker - 48/49

Not a good sign this close to Election Day how many people still have no opinion on Evers

Yep, meanwhile High Energy Walker still has that magic he had all 3 times he won (especially 2012 against all odds).

[Scottholes 2.0]

This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

That is not logical. There is clearly a margin of error here and this poll result is a tie. If Evers wins by 6-7, then yes, this poll will have been way off. But if he wins by 2-3, this poll was not bad. I think you're reading this as a Walker win when it's not.

Fair enough.

[Politician]

Ok, so people are spinning this as a good result for Walker? Marquette has found better numbers for him then any other poll this cycle, and they only had Evers up once.

[Gass3268]

Breakdown of the major groups:

White Males w/o Degree: Walker +19 | Vukmir +13
White Males w/ Degree: Walker +5 | Baldwin +3
White Females w/o Degree: Evers +5 | Baldwin + 16
White Females w/ Degree: Evers +12 | Baldwin +27
Non-white or Hispanic: Evers +16 | Baldwin +35

[Ebsy]

Hopefully this is the year Marquette's reputation is utterly destroyed.

Selzer is going to be discredited completely this year.

You know, IceSpear, I don't go and dig up every wrong thing you said during 2016, of which there were very many, including your prejudiced railings against the people of West Virginia. I don't because you are such a tedious bore who is not worth a fraction of the effort.

No, the point isn't that you were wrong. The point is you haven't learned a lesson from dismissing a gold standard poll simply because you dislike the result. It's especially strange because this result isn't even particularly bad for the Democrats. Did you seriously think Evers was going to win by double digits? lol

If I do (which I don't) and I am wrong, who care. Get a life.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Ok, so people are spinning this as a good result for Walker? Marquette has found better numbers for him then any other poll this cycle, and they only had Evers up once.

It's only a week left and the poll was taken during a particularly Dem-favouring news cycle.

[libertpaulian]

Breakdown of the major groups:

Let's compare these to 2016, shall we?

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Trump won this group by a 23% margin last time.

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Clinton and Trump tied with this group.

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Trump won this demographic by 16%.

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Clinton won this group by 23%.

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Clinton won this group by 55%.

So, some good and some bad for each candidate.  Evers has cut into the white non-college men slightly and has made significant inroads with non-college women.  However, Walker has made dents of his own with college-educated white men and women, as well as with non-whites.

[Gass3268]

I am very concerned with this poll's sample of non-white voters. Yes, Wisconsin is a very white state, but there is no way that Walker is getting 37% of non-white voters or Vukmir getting 30%. I've looked at the precinct numbers for the entire decade in the City of Milwaukee (where like 90% of non-whites in the state live) and Republicans are lucky to get over 10% in those places typically.

[Wiz in Wis]

Breakdown of the major groups:

Let's compare these to 2016, shall we?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump won this group by a 23% margin last time.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clinton and Trump tied with this group.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump won this demographic by 16%.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clinton won this group by 23%.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clinton won this group by 55%.

So, some good and some bad for each candidate.  Evers has cut into the white non-college men slightly and has made significant inroads with non-college women.  However, Walker has made dents of his own with college-educated white men and women, as well as with non-whites.

Don't oversell these shifts. The MOEs around these are pretty big, and your comparing to exit polls.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I am very concerned with this poll's sample of non-white voters. Yes, Wisconsin is a very white state, but there is no way that Walker is getting 37% of non-white voters or Vukmir getting 30%. I've looked at the precinct numbers for the entire decade in the City of Milwaukee (where like 90% of non-whites in the state live) and Republicans are lucky to get over 10% in those places typically.

I know I said my last post would be my last on this thread, but I must say the crosstabs seem really off!

[Devout Centrist]

Breakdown of the major groups:

White Males w/o Degree: Walker +19 | Vukmir +13
White Males w/ Degree: Walker +5 | Baldwin +3
White Females w/o Degree: Evers +5 | Baldwin + 16
White Females w/ Degree: Evers +12 | Baldwin +27
Non-white or Hispanic: Evers +16 | Baldwin +35

This is likely due to a small number of respondents. In their last poll, Walker led among Hispanics by 18 points. The n for that subsample was 20.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Breakdown of the major groups:

Let's compare these to 2016, shall we?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump won this group by a 23% margin last time.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clinton and Trump tied with this group.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump won this demographic by 16%.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clinton won this group by 23%.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clinton won this group by 55%.

So, some good and some bad for each candidate.  Evers has cut into the white non-college men slightly and has made significant inroads with non-college women.  However, Walker has made dents of his own with college-educated white men and women, as well as with non-whites.

Yep, and with college educated being more likely to vote...easy win.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

FWIW they also polled registered voters and found Walker + 3 in that group