WI-Marquette: Tied
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  WI-Marquette: Tied
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Tied  (Read 9709 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2018, 12:33:54 PM »

Favorables are about the same:

Evers - 42/41
Walker - 48/49
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Ebsy
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« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2018, 12:34:40 PM »

Hopefully this is the year Marquette's reputation is utterly destroyed.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2018, 12:35:34 PM »

If Walker actually wins re-election at the same time that Stabenow/Whitmer/Wolf/Casey landslide, I think that answers the question of which Trump state would be the toughest nut to crack of those three.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2018, 12:35:45 PM »

Honestly Baldwin likely puts Evers over the finish line.
Doubt it. If he can't keep it within 10 pts. of her, that speaks to the unique strength of the Walker campaign. 

Ugh.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2018, 12:35:52 PM »

Hopefully this is the year Marquette's reputation is utterly destroyed.
I don't see why they'd get it wrong this year.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2018, 12:36:41 PM »


I wish they could have Evers up, even if only by a point or two.
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Xing
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2018, 12:37:05 PM »

I'd be interested in seeing the partisan breakdown of the sample, but yeah, this race is a Toss-Up.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2018, 12:37:30 PM »

I will be shocked if there is an 11 point difference between the two races.

SAME! What the heck is happening?

My timeline is happening. Hopefully not, at least in the case of WI-GOV (spoiler, Walker narrowly wins amidst a pretty decent Dem wave elsewhere).
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Zaybay
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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2018, 12:38:06 PM »

Im so confused, Marquette has been given all but one poll saying Walker is leading, and now that their final poll says the race is tied, everyone now things Walker might hold on? Not only is this shift rather good for Evers, as said before, Walker has lead this whole time according to Marquette, but it also means Walker has no polls that show a lead for him anymore(the one that did was Marquette).

Geez, it looks like what's said about Atlas is true, the status of the race is whatever the most recent poll said it was.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2018, 12:38:25 PM »

If Walker actually wins re-election at the same time that Stabenow/Whitmer/Wolf/Casey landslide, I think that answers the question of which Trump state would be the toughest nut to crack of those three.

The difference here is that Walker is the only incumbent Republican because Wisconsin doesn't have term limits. Evers is also not a great candidate. He is not the least bit inspiring and cannot talk smoothly to save his life. This doesn't mean Wisconsin is a redder state.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2018, 12:39:06 PM »

Hopefully this is the year Marquette's reputation is utterly destroyed.

Selzer is going to be discredited completely this year.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2018, 12:40:54 PM »

If this race truly is a tie, Evers is going to need Dallet-like margins in Dane and Milwaukee to eke this out.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2018, 12:41:01 PM »

Im so confused, Marquette has been given all but one poll saying Walker is leading, and now that their final poll says the race is tied, everyone now things Walker might hold on? Not only is this shift rather good for Evers, as said before, Walker has lead this whole time according to Marquette, but it also means Walker has no polls that show a lead for him anymore(the one that did was Marquette).

Geez, it looks like what's said about Atlas is true, the status of the race is whatever the most recent poll said it was.

Sure, it is better than the previous poll, but one would like for them to have Evers up, even if just by a point or two.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2018, 12:41:32 PM »

If Walker actually wins re-election at the same time that Stabenow/Whitmer/Wolf/Casey landslide, I think that answers the question of which Trump state would be the toughest nut to crack of those three.

The difference here is that Walker is the only incumbent Republican because Wisconsin doesn't have term limits. Evers is also not a great candidate. He is not the least bit inspiring and cannot talk smoothly to save his life. This doesn't mean Wisconsin is a redder state.

In other words, Evers isn't a skilled liar like Walker. Walker is good at sounding convincing.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2018, 12:41:35 PM »

Watch Walker lose by as much as his opponents did in 2010 and 2014.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2018, 12:42:09 PM »

Im so confused, Marquette has been given all but one poll saying Walker is leading, and now that their final poll says the race is tied, everyone now things Walker might hold on? Not only is this shift rather good for Evers, as said before, Walker has lead this whole time according to Marquette, but it also means Walker has no polls that show a lead for him anymore(the one that did was Marquette).

Geez, it looks like what's said about Atlas is true, the status of the race is whatever the most recent poll said it was.

I've always thought this was a toss up. I'd still bet on Evers simply due to the national environment though.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2018, 12:42:58 PM »

Im so confused, Marquette has been given all but one poll saying Walker is leading, and now that their final poll says the race is tied, everyone now things Walker might hold on? Not only is this shift rather good for Evers, as said before, Walker has lead this whole time according to Marquette, but it also means Walker has no polls that show a lead for him anymore(the one that did was Marquette).

Geez, it looks like what's said about Atlas is true, the status of the race is whatever the most recent poll said it was.

I think most people were hoping Evers would be ahead so that they wouldn't have to worry about this race. This adds a lot of uncertainty. I personally still expect Evers to win over Walker on election day. In a tied situation, the partisan rift usually decides the election, and that is on the Democrats side this year. In addition, Marquette has been a bit Republican-friendly compared to others who have polled Wisconsin this year.
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YE
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« Reply #42 on: October 31, 2018, 12:43:59 PM »

Im so confused, Marquette has been given all but one poll saying Walker is leading, and now that their final poll says the race is tied, everyone now things Walker might hold on? Not only is this shift rather good for Evers, as said before, Walker has lead this whole time according to Marquette, but it also means Walker has no polls that show a lead for him anymore(the one that did was Marquette).

Geez, it looks like what's said about Atlas is true, the status of the race is whatever the most recent poll said it was.

It’s just hofoid thinking Walker and Rust Belt GOPers in general are invincible because muh 2009-2016 struggles in the region that partially have to do with elasticity.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #43 on: October 31, 2018, 12:44:23 PM »

Democrats are more enthused to vote:

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KingSweden
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« Reply #44 on: October 31, 2018, 12:44:49 PM »

Im so confused, Marquette has been given all but one poll saying Walker is leading, and now that their final poll says the race is tied, everyone now things Walker might hold on? Not only is this shift rather good for Evers, as said before, Walker has lead this whole time according to Marquette, but it also means Walker has no polls that show a lead for him anymore(the one that did was Marquette).

Geez, it looks like what's said about Atlas is true, the status of the race is whatever the most recent poll said it was.

I've always thought this was a toss up. I'd still bet on Evers simply due to the national environment though.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #45 on: October 31, 2018, 12:45:28 PM »

This is different from past years, usually Walker dominates with Indys:

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #46 on: October 31, 2018, 12:45:39 PM »

Keep hedging, Marquette
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #47 on: October 31, 2018, 12:46:06 PM »

If Walker loses hofoid will be on suicide watch.
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hofoid
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« Reply #48 on: October 31, 2018, 12:46:17 PM »

What I want to know is...why are people so quick to denigrate Marquette when they are a state institution?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #49 on: October 31, 2018, 12:46:58 PM »

This is different from past years, usually Walker dominates with Indys:


One noticeable thing: Walker has consolidated his base (96%) more than Evers has (93%).  However, the gap in indys is good for Evers.
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