MO- Quality Pollster.......Just Kidding, its Cygnal: Hawley +3
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  MO- Quality Pollster.......Just Kidding, its Cygnal: Hawley +3
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Author Topic: MO- Quality Pollster.......Just Kidding, its Cygnal: Hawley +3  (Read 4719 times)
jimmie
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« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2018, 02:54:08 PM »

I hope my grandmother does not lose Sad
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2018, 03:36:29 PM »

Have you guys considered that maybe Cygnal is UNDERESTIMATING Hawley and Braun?
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GM Team Member WB
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« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2018, 03:37:48 PM »

Have you guys considered that maybe Cygnal is UNDERESTIMATING Hawley and Braun?
No because that means literally every other pollster would be underestimating them. That has a less than 0.1% chance of being true.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2018, 03:39:09 PM »

LOL @ all those Republican pollsters coming out of the woodworks now, just like all the right-wing Nazi rednecks are coming out of woodworks to mail pipe bombs and kill Jews.

What evidence is there that they are actually a real pollster in the first place? They do not even seem to have a 538 pollster grade rating and seem to be new, with an Albanian website.

Wait an Albanian website...?

http://www.cygn.al

.al is Albania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.al

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It's Alabama.
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Badger
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« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2018, 04:10:30 PM »

LOL @ all those Republican pollsters coming out of the woodworks now, just like all the right-wing Nazi rednecks are coming out of woodworks to mail pipe bombs and kill Jews.

What evidence is there that they are actually a real pollster in the first place? They do not even seem to have a 538 pollster grade rating and seem to be new, with an Albanian website.

Wait an Albanian website...?

http://www.cygn.al

.al is Albania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.al

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It's Alabama.

Oh, so even more third world.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2018, 06:14:32 PM »

Great news for Claire!

Kaine +5 = all polls into the trash
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2018, 06:23:23 PM »

Cygnal is indeed a junk pollster, but it's not like this poll is wildly out of line with the others for this race.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2018, 07:50:20 PM »

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.
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SN2903
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« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2018, 08:21:01 PM »

McCaskill is finished.  She is going to lose.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2018, 09:15:21 PM »

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2018, 09:31:25 PM »

I swear, if a poll comes out tomorrow showing McCaskill +3, 1/2 of the posters on this thread will immediately jump to "I knew she would win" "It was garbage polling anyway" "Hawley was always a weak candidate"
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2018, 09:36:44 PM »

I swear, if a poll comes out tomorrow showing McCaskill +3, 1/2 of the posters on this thread will immediately jump to "I knew she would win" "It was garbage polling anyway" "Hawley was always a weak candidate"

I do not believe that Missouri is completely gone for the Democrats, yet. McCaskill can still pull out a victory. What I am saying is that the trends in this race should be concerning for her and her campaign. Why have we not seen any Democratic internals of this race? Is it possible that they might be seeing the same development transpiring?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2018, 09:48:49 PM »

I swear, if a poll comes out tomorrow showing McCaskill +3, 1/2 of the posters on this thread will immediately jump to "I knew she would win" "It was garbage polling anyway" "Hawley was always a weak candidate"

I do not believe that Missouri is completely gone for the Democrats, yet. McCaskill can still pull out a victory. What I am saying is that the trends in this race should be concerning for her and her campaign. Why have we not seen any Democratic internals of this race? Is it possible that they might be seeing the same development transpiring?
Internals are only really useful for two reasons:
1. To get attention to the race showing it close, so you get more money
2. To show the you leading, to spin a narrative
This is why many house Ds have released internals showing them close or barely trailing the R, it alerts voters on how close the vote is, and gives the campaign a much needed cash intake.

There really isnt any other reason for releasing an internal poll. Lets say you are an endangered senator, and you are leading by 5 in all of your internal polling. You are well stocked on money and volunteers. If this is the case, it would be a net-negative to release an internal, as it would alert the other party, making the race more difficult.

Look at most D challengers and incumbents this cycle, Rosen, Sinema, McCaskill, Manchin, Tester, none have released internals. Is it because they are all down? No, as Public Polling disputes this. Its more likely that they dont want attention drawn to their seat, making a rather simple race more difficult.

Narrative building is the second reason, but it is practically useless. It gives the media a story, and can make a race appear one way or the other, but otherwise, no real benefits or costs.

I shall point to AZ as an example, we had R polling flooding the race, and many thought Sinema was down. Now, a public poll from a high quality pollster comes in, and completely disproves this. Why did Sinema not release an internal, if this was the case? Because she didnt need to.
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2016
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« Reply #38 on: October 30, 2018, 09:49:22 PM »

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2018, 06:22:19 PM »

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.

You actually might be right for once. Same goes for Donnelly. Heitkamp winning was pure dumb luck though. I still don't understand how she won.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2018, 12:53:31 PM »

McCaskill was always the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat this cycle in terms of fundamentals (though nobody seemed to realize it).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2018, 01:30:52 PM »

McCaskill was always the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat this cycle in terms of fundamentals (though nobody seemed to realize it).

Heitkamp is DOA though, McCaskill is not.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #42 on: November 01, 2018, 01:32:59 PM »

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.

You actually might be right for once. Same goes for Donnelly. Heitkamp winning was pure dumb luck though. I still don't understand how she won.
Hell, if Lugar was the nominee instead of Mourdock, Donnelly would have gotten destroyed.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #43 on: November 01, 2018, 02:06:53 PM »

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.

You actually might be right for once. Same goes for Donnelly. Heitkamp winning was pure dumb luck though. I still don't understand how she won.
Hell, if Lugar was the nominee instead of Mourdock, Donnelly would have gotten destroyed.


How much do you think Donnelly would have lost by? Given Lugar's prior elections, I imagine he would have been defeated by at least twenty points.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2018, 02:31:59 PM »

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.

You actually might be right for once. Same goes for Donnelly. Heitkamp winning was pure dumb luck though. I still don't understand how she won.
Hell, if Lugar was the nominee instead of Mourdock, Donnelly would have gotten destroyed.


How much do you think Donnelly would have lost by? Given Lugar's prior elections, I imagine he would have been defeated by at least twenty points.
I think that Donnelly's victory was not only due to Mourdock's repeated campaign mistakes, but also because President Obama managed to keep his loss in the state to a 10% margin.  This margin is also likely why John Gregg lost to Mike Pence by only 3%. 

If it was Lugar vs. Donnelly, I'd think 15-17% is a good guesstimate for Donnelly's defeat.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2018, 02:33:31 PM »

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.

You actually might be right for once. Same goes for Donnelly. Heitkamp winning was pure dumb luck though. I still don't understand how she won.
Hell, if Lugar was the nominee instead of Mourdock, Donnelly would have gotten destroyed.


How much do you think Donnelly would have lost by? Given Lugar's prior elections, I imagine he would have been defeated by at least twenty points.
I think that Donnelly's victory was not only due to Mourdock's repeated campaign mistakes, but also because President Obama managed to keep his loss in the state to a 10% margin.  This margin is also likely why John Gregg lost to Mike Pence by only 3%. 

If it was Lugar vs. Donnelly, I'd think 15-17% is a good guesstimate for Donnelly's defeat.


I see. So probably something like 57-42 or 58-41%? That seems reasonable.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2018, 02:34:19 PM »

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.

You actually might be right for once. Same goes for Donnelly. Heitkamp winning was pure dumb luck though. I still don't understand how she won.
Hell, if Lugar was the nominee instead of Mourdock, Donnelly would have gotten destroyed.


How much do you think Donnelly would have lost by? Given Lugar's prior elections, I imagine he would have been defeated by at least twenty points.
I think that Donnelly's victory was not only due to Mourdock's repeated campaign mistakes, but also because President Obama managed to keep his loss in the state to a 10% margin.  This margin is also likely why John Gregg lost to Mike Pence by only 3%. 

If it was Lugar vs. Donnelly, I'd think 15-17% is a good guesstimate for Donnelly's defeat.


I see. So probably something like 57-42 or 58-41%? That seems reasonable.
I'd say that's a very fair estimate, yes!
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2018, 03:38:12 PM »

McCaskill was always the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat this cycle in terms of fundamentals (though nobody seemed to realize it).

Heitkamp is DOA though, McCaskill is not.

Likely, but...North Dakotans are elastic weirdos and polling of the state in general is usually garbage: I still think there's a small chance Heitkamp actually could win while McCaskill manages to lose, LOL.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #48 on: November 01, 2018, 04:44:44 PM »

LOL @ all those Republican pollsters coming out of the woodworks now, just like all the right-wing Nazi rednecks are coming out of woodworks to mail pipe bombs and kill Jews.

What evidence is there that they are actually a real pollster in the first place? They do not even seem to have a 538 pollster grade rating and seem to be new, with an Albanian website.

Wait an Albanian website...?

http://www.cygn.al

.al is Albania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.al

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They probably use .al because it is an Alabama based pollster.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #49 on: November 21, 2018, 04:07:34 AM »

Have you guys considered that maybe Cygnal is UNDERESTIMATING Hawley and Braun?

genius analysis! It ended up being +6 for both!
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