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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ & NV (CNN): Sinema +4 | Rosen +3
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Author Topic: AZ & NV (CNN): Sinema +4 | Rosen +3  (Read 1492 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 31, 2018, 11:11:49 am »

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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2018, 11:12:34 am »

Sounds about right.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2018, 11:12:36 am »

Atlas told me Heller was sure to win though.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2018, 11:13:37 am »

Where's your god now, "Heller will win" crowd? CNN had Trump up 6 and Heck up 2 in their last poll in 2016.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2018, 11:14:02 am »


Sinemaís margin is probably a hair narrower than this, but yeah
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2018, 11:14:10 am »

Good polls.

Now if we could only get CNN to do a GCB poll as well.
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Senator YE
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2018, 11:14:12 am »

Huh. But I thought the polls said Heller would win.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2018, 11:15:47 am »

WHAAAAAA?Huh! A poll has Rosen winning?!?!

Garbage.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2018, 11:17:30 am »

This is a poll with Trump +1 approval in Nevada too, LOL. If even a Trump +1 electorate is giving Rosen a win, Heller has zero chance in hell.
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MycroftCZ
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2018, 11:20:41 am »

Real polls. Thank god.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2018, 11:23:29 am »

Finally, good polling on NV. Now all we need is a Fox News poll, or someone similar, of ND, and we will have good polling for every key senate race.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2018, 11:27:17 am »

Finally, good polling on NV. Now all we need is a Fox News poll, or someone similar, of ND, and we will have good polling for every key senate race.

Erm, we need Missouri and Indiana? Only have had partisan or trash pollsters in those two recently.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2018, 11:29:58 am »

Paging @2016
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2018, 11:30:28 am »

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Zaybay
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2018, 11:32:09 am »

Finally, good polling on NV. Now all we need is a Fox News poll, or someone similar, of ND, and we will have good polling for every key senate race.

Erm, we need Missouri and Indiana? Only have had partisan or trash pollsters in those two recently.

whoops, forgot about those two.

Looks like we need 3 more states.
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2018, 11:33:59 am »

CNN has an incredible big Democratic House Effect all year long. They claim Sinema leads among Early Voters 54-43....that seems to be a Non-Starter for me.

In Nevada Rosen leads Heller 49-45 among Early Voters...that seems more believable.
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2018, 11:46:00 am »

FAKE GNUS!
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2018, 11:54:30 am »

B-b-but I thought fundamentals and 2016 results didnít matter?! Surely NV and AZ are more likely to go Republican than IN/MO/ND/MT/FL because thereís no Democratic incumbent in those two states and they are currently R-held seats, right?!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2018, 11:57:03 am »

Pretty much confirms what most people thought of these races, but removes any doubt about Nevada. I think Nevada will be a larger margin of victory for Rosen than Arizona will be for Sinema.
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2018, 11:59:31 am »

CNN has an incredible big Democratic House Effect all year long. They claim Sinema leads among Early Voters 54-43....that seems to be a Non-Starter for me.

In Nevada Rosen leads Heller 49-45 among Early Voters...that seems more believable.

The NYT Siena AZ Senate poll also had Sinema up among people who had already voted, 51-45

Small samples on both, of course, but that is consistent.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html


While Rs do have a party registration advantage among AZ early voters, party registration is not the same as votes in a specific race, as AZ-08 showed.

In early vote turnout, Dems are in particular doing much better than 2014 among unlikely voters with bad vote history, whereas Reps seem to be cannibalizing themselves more than in 2014 in the early vote among voters who are super-likely to vote anyway (but otherwise would vote on election day). TargetSmart data on the swing in Party Regsitration of early voters as compared to 2014:

AZ --- Super Voter ---           R+3.3 ---           (D+0.7 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Frequent Voter ---           D+1.5 ---           (D+1.1 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+12.3 ---           (D+1.3 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Never Voted ---           D+26.9 ---           (D+0.7 Since Yesterday)
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New Frontier
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2018, 12:02:44 pm »

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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2018, 12:03:13 pm »

CNN has an incredible big Democratic House Effect all year long. They claim Sinema leads among Early Voters 54-43....that seems to be a Non-Starter for me.

In Nevada Rosen leads Heller 49-45 among Early Voters...that seems more believable.

The NYT Siena AZ Senate poll also had Sinema up among people who had already voted, 51-45

Small samples on both, of course, but that is consistent.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html


While Rs do have a party registration advantage among AZ early voters, party registration is not the same as votes in a specific race, as AZ-08 showed.

In early vote turnout, Dems are in particular doing much better than 2014 among unlikely voters with bad vote history, whereas Reps seem to be cannibalizing themselves more than in 2014 in the early vote among voters who are super-likely to vote anyway (but otherwise would vote on election day). TargetSmart data on the swing in Party Regsitration of early voters as compared to 2014:

AZ --- Super Voter ---           R+3.3 ---           (D+0.7 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Frequent Voter ---           D+1.5 ---           (D+1.1 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+12.3 ---           (D+1.3 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Never Voted ---           D+26.9 ---           (D+0.7 Since Yesterday)

TargetSmart is Trash. Also the Party ID for CNN AZ Poll is R 25 / D 25 / I 50 apparently. Sinema ain't up 11 Points among Earlies. CNN needs to get their Head examined for this sort of crap.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2018, 12:04:32 pm »

Looks nearly spot on to what I think goes down.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2018, 12:10:25 pm »

CNN has an incredible big Democratic House Effect all year long. They claim Sinema leads among Early Voters 54-43....that seems to be a Non-Starter for me.

In Nevada Rosen leads Heller 49-45 among Early Voters...that seems more believable.

The NYT Siena AZ Senate poll also had Sinema up among people who had already voted, 51-45

Small samples on both, of course, but that is consistent.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html


While Rs do have a party registration advantage among AZ early voters, party registration is not the same as votes in a specific race, as AZ-08 showed.

In early vote turnout, Dems are in particular doing much better than 2014 among unlikely voters with bad vote history, whereas Reps seem to be cannibalizing themselves more than in 2014 in the early vote among voters who are super-likely to vote anyway (but otherwise would vote on election day). TargetSmart data on the swing in Party Regsitration of early voters as compared to 2014:

AZ --- Super Voter ---           R+3.3 ---           (D+0.7 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Frequent Voter ---           D+1.5 ---           (D+1.1 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+12.3 ---           (D+1.3 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Never Voted ---           D+26.9 ---           (D+0.7 Since Yesterday)

TargetSmart is Trash. Also the Party ID for CNN AZ Poll is R 25 / D 25 / I 50 apparently. Sinema ain't up 11 Points among Earlies. CNN needs to get their Head examined for this sort of crap.

Party ID is not the same thing as Party Registration. I know that you are smart enough and know enough to know that is true from you making various reasonable comments to my timeline.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2012/11/unskewed-polls-founder-dean-chambers-on-polling-bias.html

There is no reason to be hackish, you will affect precisely 0 votes of anyone by commenting one way or another on polls on US Election Atlas, you don't have to worry about that.

I agree Sinema may well not be up among early voters (it is a small sub-sample). Likewise though, Sinema may well do better among people who don't vote early than the CNN poll or the NYT/Siena poll says.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2018, 12:13:46 pm »

CNN has an incredible big Democratic House Effect all year long. They claim Sinema leads among Early Voters 54-43....that seems to be a Non-Starter for me.

In Nevada Rosen leads Heller 49-45 among Early Voters...that seems more believable.

FWIW, 538 has classified past CNN polls this year as having a pro-Dem house effect of 1.1%.
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