TN- NBC/Marist: Blackburn +5

[2016]

If Corker had any sense, he'd endorse Bredesen.  I mean, he's leaving in January.  What does he have to lose?!

It wouldn't make any difference at this point. Blackburn, it seems, was always destined to win. The historical pattern of repeat candidates failing with their comebacks seems to be repeating itself, as it did with Feingold, Bayh, and Strickland back in 2016.

Well, I think Hickenlooper will almost certainly try for Senate against Gardner in two years unless he runs for POTUS so another one coming.

Hickenlooper, I believe, would be an exception to the rule. He has pretty decent approval ratings, is inoffensive, and is a centrist. Moreover, Gardner is very unpopular, with some of the lowest approval ratings of any Senator in the country. Given these facts, and given that Trump will almost certainly lose Colorado in 2020, Hickenlooper would be favored. But I would much rather that the Democrats nominate someone younger to run for the seat.

But otherwise, my point stands. IceSpear was right when he insisted, from the very beginning, that Bredesen was doomed. And this race demonstrates to me how this year will not be a "blue wave" by any means. If anything, I expect Democrats to do about as well as they did in 2006.

I think that's a fair Assumption you did. I still think tho it will be 235-200 in the House so a bit higher than 2006.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Probably massively inaccurate. I expect Blackburn to do even better than her NYTimes Upshot / Siena poll performance.

[Pericles]

At least it seems this race is still in the single digits.

[Calthrina950]

At least it seems this race is still in the single digits.

That's not much, though. Tennessee will continue with its Republican Senatorial streak, which has remained unbroken since 1990. Bredesen will join Harold Ford, Jr. in terms of failing to flip this seat. I think it will be decades before the state elects a Democratic Senator again, if ever.

[UWS]

I think it is that margin, at least or more, by which Blackburn will win.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

TN gonna TN.

[UWS]

I would not be surprised if Blackburn’s lead in Tennessee will be larger than Cruz’s in Texas.

[Roll Roons]

If Corker had any sense, he'd endorse Bredesen.  I mean, he's leaving in January.  What does he have to lose?!

It wouldn't make any difference at this point. Blackburn, it seems, was always destined to win. The historical pattern of repeat candidates failing with their comebacks seems to be repeating itself, as it did with Feingold, Bayh, and Strickland back in 2016.

Bayh and Strickland suck as examples in this, especially Bayh, who was a deeply flawed candidate due to his post-politics work (if you saw the 2016 coverage of his candidacy, you should know). Both those states were definitely, and continue to be, winnable for Democrats, but if Bredie loses, it will not be because he turned into a terrible person/candidate after leaving office but rather because Tennessee has simply become too Republican-leaning to win, even in a very favorable cycle.

They were weak candidates, but the same rule has shown itself to be true with many other candidates. Scott Brown (New Hampshire 2014), Linda Lingle (Hawaii 2012), and Tommy Thompson (Wisconsin 2012), are some other notable examples.

I don't think the rule is that steadfast. Angus King, Jeanne Shaheen, Lamar Alexander and Mark Warner all took a few years off and came back to win.

[IceSpear]

Go ahead and stick a fork in Bredesen if for some reason you haven't already.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

TN gonna TN.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yep, as expected we're all going to get Blackburned on Tuesday. Taylor Swift can only do so much.

[ContrarianLibertarian]

If Corker had any sense, he'd endorse Bredesen.  I mean, he's leaving in January.  What does he have to lose?!

It wouldn't make any difference at this point. Blackburn, it seems, was always destined to win. The historical pattern of repeat candidates failing with their comebacks seems to be repeating itself, as it did with Feingold, Bayh, and Strickland back in 2016.

Bayh and Strickland suck as examples in this, especially Bayh, who was a deeply flawed candidate due to his post-politics work (if you saw the 2016 coverage of his candidacy, you should know). Both those states were definitely, and continue to be, winnable for Democrats, but if Bredie loses, it will not be because he turned into a terrible person/candidate after leaving office but rather because Tennessee has simply become too Republican-leaning to win, even in a very favorable cycle.

It wasn’t just Bayh’s post-politics work that tripped him up, but what he did in his last months as a Senator paired with his post-politics “work.”  The guy was basically paid tens of millions of dollars by Leon Black to spike a hike in the carried interest tax.  When that came out, he was toast.