ND: Trafalgar- Cramer +9 (user search)
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  ND: Trafalgar- Cramer +9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: ND: Trafalgar- Cramer +9  (Read 4005 times)
Badger
badger
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« on: October 30, 2018, 04:02:40 PM »

Zaybay is my Bogeyman. Too much insanity from him as always.
same to you, my friend.

2016 actually had the stones to say that?!?

To the irony ore mine, stat!
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 04:06:26 PM »

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.
That....that is absurd. Either Heidi is doing much better than expected, or Trafalgar is soo bad that they got +9 out of such a sample.

Based on anecdotal information, fundraising and Biden factor, I would lean towards the former, but I will never know, since only garbage pollsters want to visit ND.

Fox News, where are you?

Correction. Apple relying on those numbers, even in North Carolina, is beyond absurd.

I've assumed hike Camp was DOA as well, but with that kind of a cross section it's tough to cough this race anything other than lean r.

I would have had trouble making that assessment with a straight face, but will anyone please tell me how Kramer being up 9 points in a 70% Republican poll that's less than 2% under age 35 says anything else? Does anyone here truly believe that turn out on Election Day is going to be anything even fathomable e close to these numbers??

Hell, according to this poll if Republican share of the electorate Falls just short of 60% on Election Day high camp will probably win! I don't think that'll be the case, of course, but in a nutshell this Paul is actually pretty good news for Heidi.
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Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,258
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2018, 04:16:01 PM »

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.
That....that is absurd. Either Heidi is doing much better than expected, or Trafalgar is soo bad that they got +9 out of such a sample.

Based on anecdotal information, fundraising and Biden factor, I would lean towards the former, but I will never know, since only garbage pollsters want to visit ND.

Fox News, where are you?

Correction. Apple relying on those numbers, even in North Carolina, is beyond absurd.

I've assumed hike Camp was DOA as well, but with that kind of a cross section it's tough to cough this race anything other than lean r.

I would have had trouble making that assessment with a straight face, but will anyone please tell me how Kramer being up 9 points in a 70% Republican poll that's less than 2% under age 35 says anything else? Does anyone here truly believe that turn out on Election Day is going to be anything even fathomable e close to these numbers??

Hell, according to this poll if Republican share of the electorate Falls just short of 60% on Election Day high camp will probably win! I don't think that'll be the case, of course, but in a nutshell this Paul is actually pretty good news for Heidi.
Its highly possible(some would say likely), that turnout remains below 60% R. I think in 2016 it was either 45% or 55% R, but I cant recall at the moment.

Sure. My point is that according to this poll that if it is "merely" in the high 50s Heidi will win. Again, I think that reflects more about the sh**ty nature of this poll rather than height Kamps chances.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2018, 04:21:46 PM »

Another poll confirming what has already been known about this race. Heitkamp is on track to lose by high single to low double digits, as I previously estimated.

So tell us how you estimated that 70% of the electric will self identify as Republicans, and less than 2% will be under age 35. Inquiring minds want to know!
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2018, 02:30:44 AM »


Really?

The Heitkamp can still win people are even more pathetic than the Bernie can still win people, I really don't know what makes it so hard for people to accept her losing at this point

Yeah, it's pretty sad to watch. Especially when a lot of the same people will make fun of other posters for saying John James, Bob Hugin, etc. can win.
Ice, we're applying the standards of this particular poll, not necessarily saying "Here's how Heidi can still win!!"

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