ND: Trafalgar- Cramer +9

[Zaybay]

I agree, throw it in the trash. Trafalgar is bottom tier stuff.

[Zaybay]

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.

That....that is absurd. Either Heidi is doing much better than expected, or Trafalgar is soo bad that they got +9 out of such a sample.

Based on anecdotal information, fundraising and Biden factor, I would lean towards the former, but I will never know, since only garbage pollsters want to visit ND.

Fox News, where are you?

[Zaybay]

Zaybay is my Bogeyman. Too much insanity from him as always.

same to you, my friend.

[Zaybay]

There's no way 70% of the ND electorate will be Republican.

Even SRA polling, which found Cramer ahead by 16, had 60% Rs.

This is really strange. But it is Trafalgar, so perhaps I should have expected such an odd result.

[Zaybay]

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.

That....that is absurd. Either Heidi is doing much better than expected, or Trafalgar is soo bad that they got +9 out of such a sample.

Based on anecdotal information, fundraising and Biden factor, I would lean towards the former, but I will never know, since only garbage pollsters want to visit ND.

Fox News, where are you?

Correction. Apple relying on those numbers, even in North Carolina, is beyond absurd.

I've assumed hike Camp was DOA as well, but with that kind of a cross section it's tough to cough this race anything other than lean r.

I would have had trouble making that assessment with a straight face, but will anyone please tell me how Kramer being up 9 points in a 70% Republican poll that's less than 2% under age 35 says anything else? Does anyone here truly believe that turn out on Election Day is going to be anything even fathomable e close to these numbers??

Hell, according to this poll if Republican share of the electorate Falls just short of 60% on Election Day high camp will probably win! I don't think that'll be the case, of course, but in a nutshell this Paul is actually pretty good news for Heidi.

Its highly possible(some would say likely), that turnout remains below 60% R. I think in 2016 it was either 45% or 55% R, but I cant recall at the moment.