I swear, if a poll comes out tomorrow showing McCaskill +3, 1/2 of the posters on this thread will immediately jump to "I knew she would win" "It was garbage polling anyway" "Hawley was always a weak candidate"
I do not believe that Missouri is completely gone for the Democrats, yet. McCaskill can still pull out a victory. What I am saying is that the trends in this race should be concerning for her and her campaign. Why have we not seen any Democratic internals of this race? Is it possible that they might be seeing the same development transpiring?
Internals are only really useful for two reasons:
1. To get attention to the race showing it close, so you get more money
2. To show the you leading, to spin a narrative
This is why many house Ds have released internals showing them close or barely trailing the R, it alerts voters on how close the vote is, and gives the campaign a much needed cash intake.
There really isnt any other reason for releasing an internal poll. Lets say you are an endangered senator, and you are leading by 5 in all of your internal polling. You are well stocked on money and volunteers. If this is the case, it would be a net-negative to release an internal, as it would alert the other party, making the race more difficult.
Look at most D challengers and incumbents this cycle, Rosen, Sinema, McCaskill, Manchin, Tester, none have released internals. Is it because they are all down? No, as Public Polling disputes this. Its more likely that they dont want attention drawn to their seat, making a rather simple race more difficult.
Narrative building is the second reason, but it is practically useless. It gives the media a story, and can make a race appear one way or the other, but otherwise, no real benefits or costs.
I shall point to AZ as an example, we had R polling flooding the race, and many thought Sinema was down. Now, a public poll from a high quality pollster comes in, and completely disproves this. Why did Sinema not release an internal, if this was the case? Because she didnt need to.
