MO- Quality Pollster.......Just Kidding, its Cygnal: Hawley +3

[libertpaulian]

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.

You actually might be right for once. Same goes for Donnelly. Heitkamp winning was pure dumb luck though. I still don't understand how she won.

Hell, if Lugar was the nominee instead of Mourdock, Donnelly would have gotten destroyed.

[libertpaulian]

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.

You actually might be right for once. Same goes for Donnelly. Heitkamp winning was pure dumb luck though. I still don't understand how she won.

Hell, if Lugar was the nominee instead of Mourdock, Donnelly would have gotten destroyed.

How much do you think Donnelly would have lost by? Given Lugar's prior elections, I imagine he would have been defeated by at least twenty points.

I think that Donnelly's victory was not only due to Mourdock's repeated campaign mistakes, but also because President Obama managed to keep his loss in the state to a 10% margin.  This margin is also likely why John Gregg lost to Mike Pence by only 3%. 

If it was Lugar vs. Donnelly, I'd think 15-17% is a good guesstimate for Donnelly's defeat.

[libertpaulian]

Junk poll or not, McCaskill's luck has clearly run out.

I agree. It is now a strong possibility that both North Dakota and Missouri will flip, canceling out Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada. And Indiana has become increasingly precarious for Democrats as well.

McCaskill would have lost in 2012 if Akin hadn't made these stupid comments about rape.

You actually might be right for once. Same goes for Donnelly. Heitkamp winning was pure dumb luck though. I still don't understand how she won.

Hell, if Lugar was the nominee instead of Mourdock, Donnelly would have gotten destroyed.

How much do you think Donnelly would have lost by? Given Lugar's prior elections, I imagine he would have been defeated by at least twenty points.

I think that Donnelly's victory was not only due to Mourdock's repeated campaign mistakes, but also because President Obama managed to keep his loss in the state to a 10% margin.  This margin is also likely why John Gregg lost to Mike Pence by only 3%. 

If it was Lugar vs. Donnelly, I'd think 15-17% is a good guesstimate for Donnelly's defeat.

I see. So probably something like 57-42 or 58-41%? That seems reasonable.

I'd say that's a very fair estimate, yes!