MO- Quality Pollster.......Just Kidding, its Cygnal: Hawley +3 (user search)
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  MO- Quality Pollster.......Just Kidding, its Cygnal: Hawley +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO- Quality Pollster.......Just Kidding, its Cygnal: Hawley +3  (Read 6001 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« on: October 30, 2018, 01:12:09 PM »

Polls that show results which I like or confirm my gut feelings are accurate, polls which don't are fake news.

That's how most people are going to feel about polls from here on out. What a lot of people don't realize that is that sometimes when polls are wrong, your gut feelings are even more wrong.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 01:33:43 PM »

Have you ever heard of a pollster with an Albanian web domain? Does that not seem bizarre?

I entirely grant that for example Remington polls showing Hawley up are legit (and that McCaskill could very easily lose, and Hawley may well be favored). But this pollster seems weird.

Oh fair enough, I definitely agree with you that putting too much (if any) stock in a Cygnal poll is certainly not a good idea. I was talking more about people reflexively dismissing other data points such as the Remington (MO)/YouGov (IN) polls as junk/Republican internals or "unskewing" polls they don’t like (see the AZ thread, for example). I’d still rate both IN and MO Toss-ups, but the idea that they’re less likely to flip than TX and TN is ludicrous.
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