OH Baldwin Wallace: Brown +17

[wbrocks67]

Could also be Brown +19.

Their graph shows Brown 49 - Renacci 32. However, the article says Brown 51 - Renacci 32.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/30/poll-ohio-governors-race-tight-sherrod-brown-likely-cruising-senate-win-and-more/1811239002/

[Brittain33]

This is why I’m optimistic for Donnelly.

[libertpaulian]

This is why I’m optimistic for Donnelly.

Ohio and Indiana are two completely different states.

[SN2903]

This is why I’m optimistic for Donnelly.

Brown is a much stronger incumbent than Donnelly. I think Donnelly's numbers are way too low for an incumbent he is going to lose.

[MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)]

Brown will win, but I’m not buying that it’ll be by 17 points.

[Xing]

Is Brown up by 6, or is he up by 17%? Who knows, but I do know that he's going to win easily.

[NUPES Enjoyer]

So one poll has Cordray 3 points behind Brown, and another has him 17 points behind. Huh.

[IceSpear]

So one poll has Cordray 3 points behind Brown, and another has him 17 points behind. Huh.

And they're both junk polls. I doubt that's a coincidence.

[McGovernForPrez]

This is why I’m optimistic for Donnelly.

Ohio and Indiana are two completely different states.

Yeah but elections don't take place in a vacuum. IN might be more R leaning than it's neighbors but if MI and OH are both showing massive double digit blowouts for the Dems I think it's reasonable expect a similar shift for IN.

[IceSpear]

Apparently Brown +19 is the actual result.

[Brittain33]

This is why I’m optimistic for Donnelly.

Ohio and Indiana are two completely different states.

They have some differences, but 538 ranks Ohio as the second most similar state to Indiana for Senate elections, just after Missouri. If Ohio is landsliding for the Democrat, and if similar voters in both states have similar behavior, Donnelly should have a narrow edge.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/indiana/