AZhighground (R internal): McSally 1+
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  AZhighground (R internal): McSally 1+
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Author Topic: AZhighground (R internal): McSally 1+  (Read 2568 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #25 on: October 29, 2018, 07:33:15 PM »

So a Republican being up just 1 in their own internal means that they're going to win? I guess if an O'Rourke internal showed him up 1, that would mean that O'Rourke would win.
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ContrarianLibertarian
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« Reply #26 on: October 29, 2018, 07:38:01 PM »

As a general rule of thumb...when I see any candidate release an internal poll showing a slight lead ó especially near the election ó I read it as an admission that theyíre behind and in need of a boost.
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UWS
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« Reply #27 on: October 29, 2018, 07:38:39 PM »

So a Republican being up just 1 in their own internal means that they're going to win? I guess if an O'Rourke internal showed him up 1, that would mean that O'Rourke would win.

Actually, the Arizona Secretary of State recently reported that McSally is ahead by over 90 000 votes. And in the Maricopa County, the county that will likely decide the outcome of this race, her lead there is even larger than Trump's margin of victory there in 2016.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: October 29, 2018, 07:40:39 PM »

So a Republican being up just 1 in their own internal means that they're going to win? I guess if an O'Rourke internal showed him up 1, that would mean that O'Rourke would win.

Actually, the Arizona Secretary of State recently reported that McSally is ahead by over 90 000 votes. And in the Maricopa County, the county that will likely decide the outcome of this race, her lead there is even larger than Trump's margin of victory there in 2016.

Actually, Registered Republican =/= Voting for Republican. Republicans had a +20 margin in the AZ-06 special election and only ended up winning by 5.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2018, 07:42:11 PM »

So a Republican being up just 1 in their own internal means that they're going to win? I guess if an O'Rourke internal showed him up 1, that would mean that O'Rourke would win.

Actually, the Arizona Secretary of State recently reported that McSally is ahead by over 90 000 votes. And in the Maricopa County, the county that will likely decide the outcome of this race, her lead there is even larger than Trump's margin of victory there in 2016.
If you read this and other polls like Yougov youíd see the gops good EV is factored in. Itís blatantly obvious Sinema is winning a noticeable chunk of republicans
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Zaybay
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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2018, 07:42:35 PM »

So a Republican being up just 1 in their own internal means that they're going to win? I guess if an O'Rourke internal showed him up 1, that would mean that O'Rourke would win.

Actually, the Arizona Secretary of State recently reported that McSally is ahead by over 90 000 votes. And in the Maricopa County, the county that will likely decide the outcome of this race, her lead there is even larger than Trump's margin of victory there in 2016.
"Looks like Ojeda and Manchin are gonna win by +30 points! Look at how many Democrats have early voted!"
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #31 on: October 29, 2018, 07:42:52 PM »

So a Republican being up just 1 in their own internal means that they're going to win? I guess if an O'Rourke internal showed him up 1, that would mean that O'Rourke would win.

Actually, the Arizona Secretary of State recently reported that McSally is ahead by over 90 000 votes. And in the Maricopa County, the county that will likely decide the outcome of this race, her lead there is even larger than Trump's margin of victory there in 2016.

He didn't say McSally is ahead by 90k. He said there were 90,000 more registered Republicans that have voted so far than registered Democrats. That's a massive difference that hacks like you ignore entirely.

Under your logic, West Virginia is a Democratic stronghold with its ~10% Democratic registration lead and Kentucky is pretty Democratic because of its registration lead being D+8.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #32 on: October 29, 2018, 07:49:29 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2018, 08:28:08 PM by Webnicz »

I wish they polled more than 400 people for a senate race

If Sinema is *such a bad candidate* that republicans make her out to be, and McSally is *such a good one* and the candidate quality gap is so stark, and if Arizona is a *lean GOP state* like republicans say....

.......Than Why is this race so close???!?!
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Webnicz
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« Reply #33 on: October 29, 2018, 07:55:22 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2018, 07:59:36 PM by Webnicz »

Two other Polls from Data Orbital & Predictive Insights to be released this week will have McSally ahead as well.

Youre right they probably will.

Data Orbital was founded by the former AZGOP Political Director

And OH Predictive Insights tweets out articles promoting McSally from the Washington Freebeacon(Yes, from the pollsters twitter account)
https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1056608283723583489
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #34 on: October 29, 2018, 08:04:02 PM »

Please give supporting evidence that this is an internal.  538 is not treating this as an internal.  In fact, it is not even treating it as a GOP poll.  It does adjust it to a Sinema +.7 poll.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: October 29, 2018, 08:14:38 PM »

Please give supporting evidence that this is an internal.  538 is not treating this as an internal.  In fact, it is not even treating it as a GOP poll.  It does adjust it to a Sinema +.7 poll.

They worked on the Jan Brewer campaign.
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NUPES Enjoyer
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2018, 08:16:53 PM »

Is this actually an internal? 538 isn't treating it as such.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2018, 08:38:07 PM »

Is this actually an internal? 538 isn't treating it as such.

538 doesnt even have a grade for this pollster.

According to their website, everyone on their team are former Brewer administration or campaign staff.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2018, 08:53:16 PM »

Is this actually an internal? 538 isn't treating it as such.

538 doesnt even have a grade for this pollster.

According to their website, everyone on their team are former Brewer administration or campaign staff.

That does not make it an internal.  Unless you agree PPP Is always an internal for a Democrat.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2018, 08:55:47 PM »

Is this actually an internal? 538 isn't treating it as such.

538 doesnt even have a grade for this pollster.

According to their website, everyone on their team are former Brewer administration or campaign staff.

That does not make it an internal.  Unless you agree PPP Is always an internal for a Democrat.

Read the write up, it reads like a Republican internal.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2018, 08:56:17 PM »

Is this actually an internal? 538 isn't treating it as such.

538 doesnt even have a grade for this pollster.

According to their website, everyone on their team are former Brewer administration or campaign staff.

That does not make it an internal.  Unless you agree PPP Is always an internal for a Democrat.

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #41 on: October 29, 2018, 08:56:31 PM »

Arizona demonstrates that ticket-splitting is not dead. There appear to be a substantial number of Ducey/Sinema voters. I would assume that they are independents and moderate Republicans who are satisfied with Ducey's performance as Governor and who are attracted by Sinema's centrism.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #42 on: October 29, 2018, 09:03:28 PM »

Arizona demonstrates that ticket-splitting is not dead. There appear to be a substantial number of Ducey/Sinema voters. I would assume that they are independents and moderate Republicans who are satisfied with Ducey's performance as Governor and who are attracted by Sinema's centrism.
Or itís older people who donít want McSally anywhere near their healthcare
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Zaybay
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« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2018, 09:08:05 PM »

Arizona demonstrates that ticket-splitting is not dead. There appear to be a substantial number of Ducey/Sinema voters. I would assume that they are independents and moderate Republicans who are satisfied with Ducey's performance as Governor and who are attracted by Sinema's centrism.
Eh, I would disagree. Ducey is really popular, so it makes sense that voters would keep him, just as voters are keeping Baker, Scott, and Hogan. The senate race seems to just be D vs R, being a bit better than 2016, with no real data showing its specifically Sinema's centrism that attracts people(especially when the R campaign has focused on her highly Liberal past).
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #44 on: October 29, 2018, 10:03:56 PM »

Arizona demonstrates that ticket-splitting is not dead. There appear to be a substantial number of Ducey/Sinema voters. I would assume that they are independents and moderate Republicans who are satisfied with Ducey's performance as Governor and who are attracted by Sinema's centrism.
Or itís older people who donít want McSally anywhere near their healthcare

Arizona demonstrates that ticket-splitting is not dead. There appear to be a substantial number of Ducey/Sinema voters. I would assume that they are independents and moderate Republicans who are satisfied with Ducey's performance as Governor and who are attracted by Sinema's centrism.
Eh, I would disagree. Ducey is really popular, so it makes sense that voters would keep him, just as voters are keeping Baker, Scott, and Hogan. The senate race seems to just be D vs R, being a bit better than 2016, with no real data showing its specifically Sinema's centrism that attracts people(especially when the R campaign has focused on her highly Liberal past).

Possibly a combination of both. I'm aware of what McSally has said about Medicare and Obamacare, and it is reasonable to assume that many retirees (of which there are many in Arizona), were turned off by those comments. Ducey's popularity is a factor, but his performance can also be attributed to the poor campaign being run by his opponent Garcia. And polls have shown that Sinema is winning over a number of independent and moderate voters who typically vote Republican. That was how she was able to get elected and reelected in her swing to lean Democratic district over the past few years.
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Hammy
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« Reply #45 on: October 29, 2018, 10:35:08 PM »

Is it me or have there been a ton of R+1 internal polls in the last week or so?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #46 on: October 30, 2018, 07:39:04 PM »

A Republican affiliated polling firm called "highground?" That's hilarious. "Lowblow" would be a more appropriate name. Anyway, somehow Sinema seems to be favored. I'm not sure why or how, but I'm fine with it. If you told me four years ago that a bisexual nonreligious Democrat could be elected statewide in Arizona, I probably would have laughed my ass off.
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