AZhighground (R internal): McSally 1+ (user search)
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  AZhighground (R internal): McSally 1+ (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZhighground (R internal): McSally 1+  (Read 2757 times)
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« on: October 29, 2018, 06:17:12 PM »

But I thought by unskewing YouGov, you would get McSally up by 1000%
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2018, 06:33:32 PM »

You do realize how unbelievable all those numbers are, right?

Also, the poll will probably be worse for McSally, considering the GCB and Trump Approval is more D friendly than the last one, which would probably give McSally+3-4.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2018, 06:43:22 PM »


They nailed the AZ 8 Special Election and they will nail the Senate & Governor Race too.

You go home into your Democratic Glashouse Zaybay.
Just because you nail one election doesnt make you a god at polling. Last I checked, no one is worshiping Trafalgar.

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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2018, 07:42:35 PM »

So a Republican being up just 1 in their own internal means that they're going to win? I guess if an O'Rourke internal showed him up 1, that would mean that O'Rourke would win.

Actually, the Arizona Secretary of State recently reported that McSally is ahead by over 90 000 votes. And in the Maricopa County, the county that will likely decide the outcome of this race, her lead there is even larger than Trump's margin of victory there in 2016.
"Looks like Ojeda and Manchin are gonna win by +30 points! Look at how many Democrats have early voted!"
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2018, 09:08:05 PM »

Arizona demonstrates that ticket-splitting is not dead. There appear to be a substantial number of Ducey/Sinema voters. I would assume that they are independents and moderate Republicans who are satisfied with Ducey's performance as Governor and who are attracted by Sinema's centrism.
Eh, I would disagree. Ducey is really popular, so it makes sense that voters would keep him, just as voters are keeping Baker, Scott, and Hogan. The senate race seems to just be D vs R, being a bit better than 2016, with no real data showing its specifically Sinema's centrism that attracts people(especially when the R campaign has focused on her highly Liberal past).
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