Shadows
YaBB God
Posts: 4,956
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« on: October 29, 2018, 11:58:32 AM » |
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« edited: October 29, 2018, 12:03:54 PM by Shadows »
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Polls are estimating a certain turnout. In-case Beto gets a better turnout he can win.
But for pulling of this kind of an upset, Beto has to do better than 86-12 among Black votes. It has to be 90-91% for him. 60-36%, a lead of 24% is quite strong among Hispanics in Texas but he needs a few extra points here as well. The path is pretty clear -> Beto needs to cross 90% of the Black vote, 65% of the Hispanic Vote & then get huge turnout among Young voters & in Big Cities.
This is not unwinnable. The polls estimate a certain turnout akin to normal Mid-Terms. It is very likely that compared to 2014 or 2010, the turnout will be more favorable to Democrats.
Beto can over-perform the polls by 2-3% easily based on turnout, maybe more. If there are polls showing he is down only 2-3% odd, then Beto has a solid chance of a win !
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