CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL (user search)
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  CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL  (Read 5314 times)
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« on: October 28, 2018, 11:51:29 AM »

McSally at 84% of Republicans but she leads Indies 46-43. That's enough to disqualify that AZ Poll. McSally ain't going to win Independent Voters and neither will she get only 84% of Republicans. This is garbarge.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2018, 12:08:06 PM »

Democrats need all 3 Races. If they lose IN early in the Night it's over.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2018, 01:36:34 PM »

It's not really fair to immediately trash 538's model just because Braun has taken a small lead in a handful of recent polls. Data-driven models are intentionally cautious in reacting to new polling data. They are meant to have an element of stability based on other factors independent of polling, such as fundamentals (although it's fair to debate what should actually count as a fundamental).

A very clear trend over several credible polls is required to counteract those fundamentals. It's a feature, not a bug. If your probabilities swing wildly with each new poll, you don't really have a model. You have just a regular polling average, and a very noisy one at that. Even most ordinary polling averages collect polls over an extended period of time to minimize statistical noise.

YouGov is the first non-partisan pollster in a long time to show Braun ahead, so any expectation that the models will swing dramatically just of because of that is absolutely unrealistic and uninformed.

Actually it doesn't matter if Braun or Donnelly is ahead. Republicans have locked up the Senate. ND is GONE, Missouri is now leaning their way. Getting IN would only be the icing on the cake and would spare us Political Junkies of a long Night.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2018, 03:09:06 PM »

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:



Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2018, 03:35:32 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2018, 03:38:48 PM by 2016 »

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:



Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.

I am not a fan of these polls, but this is a terrible excuse. All it is is looking at the current early vote numbers, which, in AZ, is a stupid idea. The state of AZ is still heavily R registered, but the actual voters are not heavily R. By looking at the numbers in AZ, you miss who the voters are. While the early vote is pretty R, about 8% more last I checked, it misses who those Rs are, and who the Is vote for.

And this isnt helped by the fact that that R% has been going down this whole time.

Should also note that this guy may have a reason to dispute a Sinema-leading poll:



Wrong, AZ is 43.9 R, 32.9 D & 22.6 I...that's R + 11 my friend.

Mike Noble, Chief Pollster for "OH Predictive Insights" has also come out and said CBS/YouGov Poll is trash. CBS will all their liberal hack think they can do better than the two AZ Local Pollsters. Give me a break! Anthony Salvanto, CBS's Chief Elections Director & Pollster is a liberal.



Also, Noble gives Explanation for AZ 8 being so tight.



Noble said Election Environmet has changed since Kavanaugh.

Sinema getting 9% of the Republican Vote is also trash. Noble says 70-80% of AZ Vote will be cast early.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2018, 03:51:23 PM »

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:



Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.

I am not a fan of these polls, but this is a terrible excuse. All it is is looking at the current early vote numbers, which, in AZ, is a stupid idea. The state of AZ is still heavily R registered, but the actual voters are not heavily R. By looking at the numbers in AZ, you miss who the voters are. While the early vote is pretty R, about 8% more last I checked, it misses who those Rs are, and who the Is vote for.

And this isnt helped by the fact that that R% has been going down this whole time.

Should also note that this guy may have a reason to dispute a Sinema-leading poll:



Wrong, AZ is 43.9 R, 32.9 D & 22.6 I...that's R + 11 my friend.

Mike Noble, Chief Pollster for "OH Predictive Insights" has also come out and said CBS/YouGov Poll is trash. CBS will all their liberal hack think they can do better than the two AZ Local Pollsters. Give me a Break!



Also, Noble gives Explanation for AZ 8 being so tight.



Noble said Election Environmet has changed since Kavanaugh.

Sinema getting 9% of the Republican Vote is also trash. Noble says 70-80% of AZ Vote will be cast early.
Also for 29 and younger voters to make up 30% of the vote at this point they would have to make up little over a half of the remaining early and election day ballots

We have apparently two local AZ Pollsters saying the same thing. I'm inclined to trust these two guys more than CBS/YouGov as they have better knowledge polling their State. Predictive Insights nailed the AZ-8 Special Election so to speak.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2018, 03:53:48 PM »

So the AZ part is trash but IN and especially FL are fine? That’s really being hackish
AZ doesn't make sense. You really believe AZ will be only 70% White? I do not believe that for a minute. Too many young people as well.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2018, 04:02:47 PM »

So the AZ part is trash but IN and especially FL are fine? That’s really being hackish
AZ doesn't make sense. You really believe AZ will be only 70% White? I do not believe that for a minute. Too many young people as well.
Possibly. Pollsters have been saying the Hispanic/Latino vote is starting to get a noticeable uptick. Also again the FL poll looks like an outlier but you have no problem with that and I dang sure know you have no problem with IN

We had two other IN Polls showing Donnelly up 1 in the SUSA Poll (41-40) and Braun up 4 (47-43) in the IndyPolitics Poll. And then Donnelly did have a horrible week having to explain numerous times the ties to his brothers firm.

On FL Gillum is consistently hiding from the Media. Some Polls show Nelson winning the Male Vote as well which is trash.
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