CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL

[Aurelio21]

Short review of the AZ/FL-Polls: They seem to be about right, yet the high number of undecided voters is startling.

Most higher quality pollster have Sen. Nelson leading 3-4 % with much fewer undecieded. What bothers me is No 21: The approval ratings are copied from an older issue of this pollster.

Mrs. Sinema appearantly has the right moderate tone for denting into REPs disgruntled with Trump.

I've read the crosstabs of the Indiana Poll. The most interesting question was No 20:
28 %! like mostly D Trumps policies and are willing to tolerate him. This is quite believable and underlines that the dynamics of the race are on Braun's side.

If anything Sen. Donelly can do now is outlining himself as reasonable alternative which checks on Mr Trump who is better suited bringing him in line with Hoosier values. And being a stronger leader on "the caravan" which narrative cannot be rationally countered.

[Aurelio21]

It would be crazy if Sinema outperformed Donnelly. Comes to show that in all but the most extraordinary circumstances, trying meet your opponents half way doesn't really work anymore.

This is quite oversimplfied. I can repeat myself over and over again, this is not a question of left vs right / Triangulation.

In Florida, due to the diversity the polarisation I fully agree on your views. There are few swing voters, this is about turning out the base. There are no overlapping constituencies.

For Arizona, Mrs Sinema is simply better fitting into the center-right libertarian ("Maverick") brand. Mrs McSally had to paint her as 120 % Trump accolyte which scares away these type voters which obviously are in a great majority.


A look into the crosstabs of the Indiana poll reveals a 10-15 % advantage of the GOP thus putting Mr Braun into the lead as he presides over the more homogenous coalition(Populist/protectionist Trump supporters and  Evangelicals) whereas Joe Donelly's base is quite fragmented. There are still classical WWC and minorities in his coalition, but also Romney/Clinton-voters. This poll gives a detailed picture (see Question No20) that the cultural conservative views keep the ROmney/Clinton voters breaking away to him massively. This is specific for Indiana, as well as the Tea-Party Libertarian who is siphoning away these voters from a potential Anti-Trump-Coalition.

[Aurelio21]

Why would you think 12% might be too high for the 18-29 cohort?  If anything, it seems too low to me.
 
According to exit polls in Florida, 18-29 constituted 14% of the electorate in 2014 and 17% of the electorate in 2016.  And Florida is older than the average state.  I couldn't find exist polls in IN for 2016 or 2014, but in a 2012 exit poll, the IN electorate was 20% 18-29.


FWIW, the exit polls have long been known to over-sample college graduates.

That being said, midterm elections are exactly when college graduates would punch over their weight. Working class voters tend to experience a dropoff in midterms.

Basically I agree with this take than rather plainly saying "YouGov is a junk pollster". Yet this poll does not reveal its weighting. The WWC-class voters who agree that the Democrats are abondening their own country for migrants might be motivated by the "Caravan / FoxNews"-scare. Who knows.
Mr Braun does this good as he keeps his mouth shut thus leaving enough projectional potential for the WWC.
It is up to Mr Donelly to reconnect emotionally with these voters via an protectionist message / displaying himself as better leader for their needs.(Hint: Calling Mr Trump a liar does not get through to these disappointed Democrats and Independents open to economic populism).

[Aurelio21]

Are we really dissecting YouGov crosstabs guys

Yes, we should not find their flaws within their methology. We must indulge into our own confirmation bias! I want to believe.

Honestly, this is the only sense I can make out of a poll with 8 % undecided voters 9 days before a pivotal election. I hate this political spining loaded with false equivalencies and What-Aboutisms

[Aurelio21]

When it comes to Arizona, this poll is not quite accurate because according to OH Predictive Insights, the Republicans are ahead by 94 000 votes overall in Arizona in the early vote.

.. and omitting totally that the YouGov poll has taken this into account, But please, continue spinning the results into your personal confirmation bias.

[Aurelio21]

Are we really dissecting YouGov crosstabs guys

Yes, we should not find their flaws within their methology. We must indulge into our own confirmation bias! I want to believe.

Honestly, this is the only sense I can make out of a poll with 8 % undecided voters 9 days before a pivotal election. I hate this political spining loaded with false equivalencies and What-Aboutisms

It's poor practice to attempt to discredit polls based on their crosstabs. The crosstabs always have much larger margins of error than the poll in general and were never really meant to considered accurate in the first place. You might be correct in saying that a certain crosstab is wrong, but that really proves nothing about the poll overall because errors in the other crosstabs might counteract it and balance things out.

@DataGuy: My post was a hyperbole/sarcasm to those on both sides who discard polls which do not please them. I totally agree with you about technical terms of statistics need to be understood and applied to a poll.

My premise is that you only could directly discard a poll via crosstabs if it would fail more sophisticated testing like student t-Test, but pollsters usually do not repeat their poll until they have a relative standard deviation. And they cannot admit their own mean-reverted biases / accuracy and precision flaws themselves.

I find these crosstabs interesting under the sociological view of the voter coalitions of each candidate relative to their state.