CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL (user search)
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  CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL  (Read 4769 times)
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« on: October 28, 2018, 10:38:15 AM »

Word of caution: young voters make up too large a portion of the electorate in AZ and IN in these (15-17% under 30 lol...). Florida looks about right demographically (12%, which might still be high but isn’t unreasonable).


Why would you think 12% might be too high for the 18-29 cohort?  If anything, it seems too low to me.
 
According to exit polls in Florida, 18-29 constituted 14% of the electorate in 2014 and 17% of the electorate in 2016.  And Florida is older than the average state.  I couldn't find exist polls in IN for 2016 or 2014, but in a 2012 exit poll, the IN electorate was 20% 18-29.

If anything, the IN poll is way too heavily weighted in favor of less educated voters.  In the 2012 exit poll, the Indiana population was 44% college graduates and 24% no college.  In this poll, it is 33% college grads and and 38% no college.  I have little reason to believe a midterm electorate will be much less educated than a general electorate.

FWIW, the exit polls have long been known to over-sample college graduates.

That being said, midterm elections are exactly when college graduates would punch over their weight. Working class voters tend to experience a dropoff in midterms.
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