CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL

[Pandaguineapig]

It's not really fair to immediately trash 538's model just because Braun has taken a small lead in a handful of recent polls. Data-driven models are intentionally cautious in reacting to new polling data. They are meant to have an element of stability based on other factors independent of polling, such as fundamentals (although it's fair to debate what should actually count as a fundamental).

A very clear trend over several credible polls is required to counteract those fundamentals. It's a feature, not a bug. If your probabilities swing wildly with each new poll, you don't really have a model. You have just a regular polling average, and a very noisy one at that. Even most ordinary polling averages collect polls over an extended period of time to minimize statistical noise.

YouGov is the first non-partisan pollster in a long time to show Braun ahead, so any expectation that the models will swing dramatically just of because of that is absolutely unrealistic and uninformed.

Actually it doesn't matter if Braun or Donnelly is ahead. Republicans have locked up the Senate. ND is GONE, Missouri is now leaning their way. Getting IN would only be the icing on the cake and would spare us Political Junkies of a long Night.

Actually there's a good chance we can find out how things will go pretty early I. The night. While the initial exit polls are likely going to be trash(they have been in every single recent election), we can probably get a good idea of how things will go throughout the night. If Braun defeats Donnelly that kills any Senate hopes the Democrats in the crib, if McGrath defeats Barr in Kentucky that means the Democrats almost certainly have the house locked up

[Pandaguineapig]

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:

https://twitter.com/George_Khalaf/status/1056582327017472000

Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.

This makes sense, both sides internal polling have mcsally very slightly ahead

[Pandaguineapig]

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:

https://twitter.com/George_Khalaf/status/1056582327017472000

Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.

I am not a fan of these polls, but this is a terrible excuse. All it is is looking at the current early vote numbers, which, in AZ, is a stupid idea. The state of AZ is still heavily R registered, but the actual voters are not heavily R. By looking at the numbers in AZ, you miss who the voters are. While the early vote is pretty R, about 8% more last I checked, it misses who those Rs are, and who the Is vote for.

And this isnt helped by the fact that that R% has been going down this whole time.

Should also note that this guy may have a reason to dispute a Sinema-leading poll:
https://twitter.com/George_Khalaf/status/1056617500064985088

Wrong, AZ is 43.9 R, 32.9 D & 22.6 I...that's R + 11 my friend.

Mike Noble, Chief Pollster for "OH Predictive Insights" has also come out and said CBS/YouGov Poll is trash. CBS will all their liberal hack think they can do better than the two AZ Local Pollsters. Give me a Break!

https://twitter.com/MikePNoble/status/1056598319286300672

Also, Noble gives Explanation for AZ 8 being so tight.

https://twitter.com/MikePNoble/status/1056605087110389765

Noble said Election Environmet has changed since Kavanaugh.

Sinema getting 9% of the Republican Vote is also trash. Noble says 70-80% of AZ Vote will be cast early.

Also for 29 and younger voters to make up 30% of the vote at this point they would have to make up little over a half of the remaining early and election day ballots