CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL

[IceSpear]

But Nate Silver told me that Heitkamp was more likely to win than Braun because of MUH incumbency.

[IceSpear]

This might sound weird but I’m actually feeling a lot better after this poll. I’ve been mr. Doom and gloom lately because I thought Sinema was crashing and burning and the possibility that we didn’t pick up either NV and AZ while losing IN, ND, and MO had me bummed. But NV is looking good and there is now too much smoke to dismiss the possibility Sinema is winning 8-10% of reps rendering the EV #’s useless. Also winning NV and AZ while losing ND, IN, and having either a wash or R +1 come down to MO is fine with me

I think people think they're horrible polls because they were for some reason convinced that Indiana was a likely D race (muh ancient junk polls, muh infallible Nate Silver.)

[IceSpear]

This might sound weird but I’m actually feeling a lot better after this poll. I’ve been mr. Doom and gloom lately because I thought Sinema was crashing and burning and the possibility that we didn’t pick up either NV and AZ while losing IN, ND, and MO had me bummed. But NV is looking good and there is now too much smoke to dismiss the possibility Sinema is winning 8-10% of reps rendering the EV #’s useless. Also winning NV and AZ while losing ND, IN, and having either a wash or R +1 come down to MO is fine with me

I think people think they're horrible polls because they were for some reason convinced that Indiana was a likely D race (muh ancient junk polls, muh infallible Nate Silver.)

Likely D would be exaggerated, but Tilt D is (or at least would have been) probably fair. Donnelly has led (by small amounts) in most polls.

The main thing Braun has going for him is IN's partisan lean. I am afraid - and more so after this YouGov poll, that enough of the undecideds break to him for IN to be an R pickup.

538's junk model unironically had Indiana at likely D until today, with Heitkamp having a higher chance than Braun, lol. Now it is a mere lean D.

[IceSpear]

It's not really fair to immediately trash 538's model just because Braun has taken a small lead in a handful of recent polls. Data-driven models are intentionally cautious in reacting to new polling data. They are meant to have an element of stability based on other factors independent of polling, such as fundamentals (although it's fair to debate what should actually count as a fundamental).

A very clear trend over several credible polls is required to counteract those fundamentals. It's a feature, not a bug. If your probabilities swing wildly with each new poll, you don't really have a model. You have just a regular polling average, and a very noisy one at that. Even most ordinary polling averages collect polls over an extended period of time to minimize statistical noise.

YouGov is the first non-partisan pollster in a long time to show Braun ahead, so any expectation that the models will swing dramatically just of because of that is absolutely unrealistic and uninformed.

The problem is that having it at "likely D" at any point was completely ludicrous.