CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL
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  CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL
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Author Topic: CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL  (Read 5312 times)
Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #50 on: October 28, 2018, 01:52:20 PM »

It's not really fair to immediately trash 538's model just because Braun has taken a small lead in a handful of recent polls. Data-driven models are intentionally cautious in reacting to new polling data. They are meant to have an element of stability based on other factors independent of polling, such as fundamentals (although it's fair to debate what should actually count as a fundamental).

A very clear trend over several credible polls is required to counteract those fundamentals. It's a feature, not a bug. If your probabilities swing wildly with each new poll, you don't really have a model. You have just a regular polling average, and a very noisy one at that. Even most ordinary polling averages collect polls over an extended period of time to minimize statistical noise.

YouGov is the first non-partisan pollster in a long time to show Braun ahead, so any expectation that the models will swing dramatically just of because of that is absolutely unrealistic and uninformed.

Actually it doesn't matter if Braun or Donnelly is ahead. Republicans have locked up the Senate. ND is GONE, Missouri is now leaning their way. Getting IN would only be the icing on the cake and would spare us Political Junkies of a long Night.
Actually there's a good chance we can find out how things will go pretty early I. The night. While the initial exit polls are likely going to be trash(they have been in every single recent election), we can probably get a good idea of how things will go throughout the night. If Braun defeats Donnelly that kills any Senate hopes the Democrats in the crib, if McGrath defeats Barr in Kentucky that means the Democrats almost certainly have the house locked up
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #51 on: October 28, 2018, 01:58:30 PM »

Actually there's a good chance we can find out how things will go pretty early I. The night. While the initial exit polls are likely going to be trash(they have been in every single recent election), we can probably get a good idea of how things will go throughout the night. If Braun defeats Donnelly that kills any Senate hopes the Democrats in the crib, if McGrath defeats Barr in Kentucky that means the Democrats almost certainly have the house locked up

Pretty much, yeah. Conversely, if Braun and Barr are both doing much better than expected, we’ll be getting ready for a very long night.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #52 on: October 28, 2018, 03:09:06 PM »

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:



Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #53 on: October 28, 2018, 03:16:50 PM »

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:



Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.
This makes sense, both sides internal polling have mcsally very slightly ahead
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Zaybay
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« Reply #54 on: October 28, 2018, 03:19:17 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2018, 03:23:57 PM by Senator-Elect Zaybay »

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:



Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.

I am not a fan of these polls, but this is a terrible excuse. All it is is looking at the current early vote numbers, which, in AZ, is a stupid idea. The state of AZ is still heavily R registered, but the actual voters are not heavily R. By looking at the numbers in AZ, you miss who the voters are. While the early vote is pretty R, about 8% more last I checked, it misses who those Rs are, and who the Is vote for.

And this isnt helped by the fact that that R% has been going down this whole time.

Should also note that this guy may have a reason to dispute a Sinema-leading poll:

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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #55 on: October 28, 2018, 03:21:45 PM »

I like how the Trumpers here are picking and choosing which one of the three polls they like and don’t like
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #56 on: October 28, 2018, 03:24:32 PM »

You Gov is a B pollster like PPP, which has saintly status on this site.

In a Florida poll conducted 11/2-4/16 YouGov had Hillary and Trump tied at 45%. 

In a Florida poll conducted 10/12-13/16 PPP had Hillary leading 49% to 42%.   PPP did not conduct later poll or did not release one.

PPP conducted a Florida Senate poll 10/25-26/16 with a tied race.  In its 11/2-4 poll YouGov had Rubio leading Murphy 47% to 44%.

Since 10/20/18 there have been 7 polls showing Nelson ahead by 4 to 9 points, 1 poll has showed Nelson leading by 1 point, 2 polls have showed Scott with a 1 point lead, one showed Scott leading by 2 points, and YouGov shows a tie.

538 has adjusted all the polls but one to show a Nelson lead of .9% to 11.7%.  It adjusted this YouGov poll to show a Nelson lead of 2.4%.

We will have to see if this YouGov poll is an outlier.

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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #57 on: October 28, 2018, 03:33:52 PM »

Donnelly is done
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #58 on: October 28, 2018, 03:35:32 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2018, 03:38:48 PM by 2016 »

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:



Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.

I am not a fan of these polls, but this is a terrible excuse. All it is is looking at the current early vote numbers, which, in AZ, is a stupid idea. The state of AZ is still heavily R registered, but the actual voters are not heavily R. By looking at the numbers in AZ, you miss who the voters are. While the early vote is pretty R, about 8% more last I checked, it misses who those Rs are, and who the Is vote for.

And this isnt helped by the fact that that R% has been going down this whole time.

Should also note that this guy may have a reason to dispute a Sinema-leading poll:



Wrong, AZ is 43.9 R, 32.9 D & 22.6 I...that's R + 11 my friend.

Mike Noble, Chief Pollster for "OH Predictive Insights" has also come out and said CBS/YouGov Poll is trash. CBS will all their liberal hack think they can do better than the two AZ Local Pollsters. Give me a break! Anthony Salvanto, CBS's Chief Elections Director & Pollster is a liberal.



Also, Noble gives Explanation for AZ 8 being so tight.



Noble said Election Environmet has changed since Kavanaugh.

Sinema getting 9% of the Republican Vote is also trash. Noble says 70-80% of AZ Vote will be cast early.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #59 on: October 28, 2018, 03:39:29 PM »

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:



Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.

I am not a fan of these polls, but this is a terrible excuse. All it is is looking at the current early vote numbers, which, in AZ, is a stupid idea. The state of AZ is still heavily R registered, but the actual voters are not heavily R. By looking at the numbers in AZ, you miss who the voters are. While the early vote is pretty R, about 8% more last I checked, it misses who those Rs are, and who the Is vote for.

And this isnt helped by the fact that that R% has been going down this whole time.

Should also note that this guy may have a reason to dispute a Sinema-leading poll:



Wrong, AZ is 43.9 R, 32.9 D & 22.6 I...that's R + 11 my friend.

Mike Noble, Chief Pollster for "OH Predictive Insights" has also come out and said CBS/YouGov Poll is trash. CBS will all their liberal hack think they can do better than the two AZ Local Pollsters. Give me a Break!



Also, Noble gives Explanation for AZ 8 being so tight.



Noble said Election Environmet has changed since Kavanaugh.

Sinema getting 9% of the Republican Vote is also trash. Noble says 70-80% of AZ Vote will be cast early.
Also for 29 and younger voters to make up 30% of the vote at this point they would have to make up little over a half of the remaining early and election day ballots
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Zaybay
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« Reply #60 on: October 28, 2018, 03:44:11 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2018, 03:50:12 PM by Senator-Elect Zaybay »


His complaints about the poll are that its online, the same as mine, and literally doing exactly what I said was a bad idea, taking early vote at literal face value. He is only assuming that Kavanaugh has caused the R voters to coalesce, which both makes no sense(Trump has not seen an approval jump in AZ, nor has polling reflected a shift since Kavanaugh in AZ, an event that has literally been forgotten about in most states) and has no basis in data. And if you have such complaints, I will refer you that the poll also has Indies going to McSally, which is likely not going to be the case.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #61 on: October 28, 2018, 03:49:27 PM »

So the AZ part is trash but IN and especially FL are fine? That’s really being hackish
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #62 on: October 28, 2018, 03:51:23 PM »

George Khalaf, the Local Pollster of Arizonas "Data Orbital" who admitted Friday that their own Poll was wrong has come out swinging at CBS/YouGov for the trash they did with their AZ Poll...read here:



Based on CBS Turnout Model without D-Surge McSally is ahead.

I am not a fan of these polls, but this is a terrible excuse. All it is is looking at the current early vote numbers, which, in AZ, is a stupid idea. The state of AZ is still heavily R registered, but the actual voters are not heavily R. By looking at the numbers in AZ, you miss who the voters are. While the early vote is pretty R, about 8% more last I checked, it misses who those Rs are, and who the Is vote for.

And this isnt helped by the fact that that R% has been going down this whole time.

Should also note that this guy may have a reason to dispute a Sinema-leading poll:



Wrong, AZ is 43.9 R, 32.9 D & 22.6 I...that's R + 11 my friend.

Mike Noble, Chief Pollster for "OH Predictive Insights" has also come out and said CBS/YouGov Poll is trash. CBS will all their liberal hack think they can do better than the two AZ Local Pollsters. Give me a Break!



Also, Noble gives Explanation for AZ 8 being so tight.



Noble said Election Environmet has changed since Kavanaugh.

Sinema getting 9% of the Republican Vote is also trash. Noble says 70-80% of AZ Vote will be cast early.
Also for 29 and younger voters to make up 30% of the vote at this point they would have to make up little over a half of the remaining early and election day ballots

We have apparently two local AZ Pollsters saying the same thing. I'm inclined to trust these two guys more than CBS/YouGov as they have better knowledge polling their State. Predictive Insights nailed the AZ-8 Special Election so to speak.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #63 on: October 28, 2018, 03:53:48 PM »

So the AZ part is trash but IN and especially FL are fine? That’s really being hackish
AZ doesn't make sense. You really believe AZ will be only 70% White? I do not believe that for a minute. Too many young people as well.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #64 on: October 28, 2018, 03:55:44 PM »

So the AZ part is trash but IN and especially FL are fine? That’s really being hackish
AZ doesn't make sense. You really believe AZ will be only 70% White? I do not believe that for a minute. Too many young people as well.
Possibly. Pollsters have been saying the Hispanic/Latino vote is starting to get a noticeable uptick. Also again the FL poll looks like an outlier but you have no problem with that and I dang sure know you have no problem with IN
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Zaybay
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« Reply #65 on: October 28, 2018, 03:58:02 PM »

So the AZ part is trash but IN and especially FL are fine? That’s really being hackish
AZ doesn't make sense. You really believe AZ will be only 70% White? I do not believe that for a minute. Too many young people as well.
Possibly. Pollsters have been saying the Hispanic/Latino vote is starting to get a noticeable uptick. Also again the FL poll looks like an outlier but you have no problem with that and I dang sure know you have no problem with IN
Not to mention in the AZ poll, Indies are going to McSally, which is rather ridiculous as all other polling has shown otherwise, but nope, no complaints there.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #66 on: October 28, 2018, 04:02:47 PM »

So the AZ part is trash but IN and especially FL are fine? That’s really being hackish
AZ doesn't make sense. You really believe AZ will be only 70% White? I do not believe that for a minute. Too many young people as well.
Possibly. Pollsters have been saying the Hispanic/Latino vote is starting to get a noticeable uptick. Also again the FL poll looks like an outlier but you have no problem with that and I dang sure know you have no problem with IN

We had two other IN Polls showing Donnelly up 1 in the SUSA Poll (41-40) and Braun up 4 (47-43) in the IndyPolitics Poll. And then Donnelly did have a horrible week having to explain numerous times the ties to his brothers firm.

On FL Gillum is consistently hiding from the Media. Some Polls show Nelson winning the Male Vote as well which is trash.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #67 on: October 28, 2018, 04:03:02 PM »

So the AZ part is trash but IN and especially FL are fine? That’s really being hackish
I don't think anyone is saying that (well, no one who knows what they're talking about). I think that what people are saying is that the crosstabs for Arizona make less sense than the crosstabs in the other two polls, particularly in light of the early voting numbers thus far.

Personally I don't think any of these polls are 'better' in terms of likelihood of being correct, though I do think that their turnout models are conflicting. These polls would be higher quality if their models were more consistent and if they weren't purely conducted online.
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SN2903
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« Reply #68 on: October 28, 2018, 05:14:30 PM »

I think Nelson is in trouble a few polls this week show tightening and Donnelly looks like he is going to lose. YouGov leans left if anything. 
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #69 on: October 28, 2018, 07:54:59 PM »

The Democrats facing losses in the Senate really might ruin what may otherwise be a good night. I just know that it's all that media is going to focus on.
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Jay 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #70 on: October 28, 2018, 08:16:01 PM »

Arizona: Decent standing for the Democrats, despite after the Republican's attacks on Sinema all summer and throughout the fall, and any seat the Democrats can gain from the GOP is one that they can (maybe) afford to lose in another state.

Indiana: Sigh. That is NOT a good sign for the Democrats, however, somewhat expected as Donnelly is an uh.. not charismatic fellow by any stretch of the imagination, and ads railing against the "radical left", when a lot of people on said left are going to hold their nose and support you is not how you win elections. They are not won by alienating your base, they are won by turning out your base.

Florida: A stretch from the recent polls that have shown Nelson in the lead, but I believe he will just barely squeak out a victory come election day. Nothing is ever cut and dry down in Florida.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #71 on: October 28, 2018, 09:40:12 PM »

Goodbye Donnelly, who is another Manchin Dem
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Vega
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« Reply #72 on: October 28, 2018, 10:57:08 PM »

Arizona: Decent standing for the Democrats, despite after the Republican's attacks on Sinema all summer and throughout the fall, and any seat the Democrats can gain from the GOP is one that they can (maybe) afford to lose in another state.

Indiana: Sigh. That is NOT a good sign for the Democrats, however, somewhat expected as Donnelly is an uh.. not charismatic fellow by any stretch of the imagination, and ads railing against the "radical left", when a lot of people on said left are going to hold their nose and support you is not how you win elections. They are not won by alienating your base, they are won by turning out your base.

Florida: A stretch from the recent polls that have shown Nelson in the lead, but I believe he will just barely squeak out a victory come election day. Nothing is ever cut and dry down in Florida.

Q. Have Republicans ever done that in an ad? Have you ever seen a Republican decry the "right wing of my own party"?
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #73 on: October 28, 2018, 11:44:22 PM »

Listen, everyone is trying to guess the right turnout model, which is why all the polls are all over the place. The averages will probably end up being fairly accurate, as usual, but this election is pretty unpredictable.
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« Reply #74 on: October 29, 2018, 01:01:44 AM »

IN, MO, ND are all must-win states for the GOP given how ugly the 2020/2022 Senate landscape is for them.
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