MI MSU: Stabenow +7
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  MI MSU: Stabenow +7
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Author Topic: MI MSU: Stabenow +7  (Read 1439 times)
DataGuy
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« on: October 26, 2018, 02:56:58 PM »

Debbie Stabenow (D): 49%
John James (R): 42%

http://www.wkar.org/post/new-state-state-survey-results-democrats-narrowly-ahead-two-top-ticket-races

This is the third poll to show Stabenow +7.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2018, 02:58:48 PM »

Yeah, Stabenow is still favored, but I never really bought her winning by 15+ points or whatever. Likely D.
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cvparty
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2018, 02:58:56 PM »

black #walkaway
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2018, 03:05:13 PM »

Isn't it the second? Still Safe D at this point, even if James narrows the gap a bit. People really are buying into the 2016 redux narrative too much.
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Woody
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2018, 03:14:24 PM »

More proof that the race is tightening. I still believe that this will be VA 2014 redux.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2018, 03:48:50 PM »

Isn't it the second? Still Safe D at this point, even if James narrows the gap a bit. People really are buying into the 2016 redux narrative too much.

No, it's the third. First there was a James internal, then EPIC-MRA, then this MSU poll. All of them showed Stabenow +7.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2018, 03:55:10 PM »

James won't win, but because Michigan has no early voting late momentum could make this a close race
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xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2018, 04:04:36 PM »

Isn't it the second? Still Safe D at this point, even if James narrows the gap a bit. People really are buying into the 2016 redux narrative too much.

No, it's the third. First there was a James internal, then EPIC-MRA, then this MSU poll. All of them showed Stabenow +7.

Well, I wasn't counting the James internal, so let's call it the second public poll. Either way, even if this does end up in the single digits, not every election is going to end the way 2016 did.
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SN2903
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2018, 04:27:03 PM »

That is now 3 polls which have it Stabenow +7. Clear tightening. With undecided voters probably are R or breaking toward James this is probably a 3-4 point race right now. James could actually outperform Schuette the way it is going.
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Politician
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2018, 05:40:57 PM »

#StabenowUnder50
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2018, 10:40:08 AM »

That is now 3 polls which have it Stabenow +7. Clear tightening. With undecided voters probably are R or breaking toward James this is probably a 3-4 point race right now. James could actually outperform Schuette the way it is going.

Why would undecided voters be R? Undecideds usually break for the party out of power.

Not to mention even in all these polls, James is barely at 42-43.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2018, 10:41:44 AM »

That is now 3 polls which have it Stabenow +7. Clear tightening. With undecided voters probably are R or breaking toward James this is probably a 3-4 point race right now. James could actually outperform Schuette the way it is going.

Why would undecided voters be R? Undecideds usually break for the party out of power.

Not to mention even in all these polls, James is barely at 42-43.
Undecideds tend to break for the incumbent, which is Advantage Stabenow.
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Politician
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2018, 10:46:18 AM »

That is now 3 polls which have it Stabenow +7. Clear tightening. With undecided voters probably are R or breaking toward James this is probably a 3-4 point race right now. James could actually outperform Schuette the way it is going.

Why would undecided voters be R? Undecideds usually break for the party out of power.

Not to mention even in all these polls, James is barely at 42-43.
Undecideds tend to break for the incumbent, which is Advantage Stabenow.
I actually thought undecideds tended to break for the challenger.
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RI
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2018, 11:54:36 AM »

James somehow winning (highly unlikely) would be absolutely massive for the GOP for years to come. James, if he wins, could be a real presidential contender down the line.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2018, 12:36:19 PM »

That is now 3 polls which have it Stabenow +7. Clear tightening. With undecided voters probably are R or breaking toward James this is probably a 3-4 point race right now. James could actually outperform Schuette the way it is going.

Why would undecided voters be R? Undecideds usually break for the party out of power.

Not to mention even in all these polls, James is barely at 42-43.
Undecideds tend to break for the incumbent, which is Advantage Stabenow.
I actually thought undecideds tended to break for the challenger.
If undecideds truly broke for the challenger more often than not, we'd have President Romney, as well as Senators Mandel, Kander, McGinty, Ross, Mack IV, Smith (PA 2012), Hoekstra, Angle, O'Donnell, etc.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2018, 07:57:01 PM »

That is now 3 polls which have it Stabenow +7. Clear tightening. With undecided voters probably are R or breaking toward James this is probably a 3-4 point race right now. James could actually outperform Schuette the way it is going.

Why would undecided voters be R? Undecideds usually break for the party out of power.

Not to mention even in all these polls, James is barely at 42-43.
Undecideds tend to break for the incumbent, which is Advantage Stabenow.
I actually thought undecideds tended to break for the challenger.

If that were the case then we'd have Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY)
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USO2019PB
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2018, 08:20:23 PM »

Their is no chance that John James will defeat Stabenow on Election Day, and the best he could really do is lose by a high single digit margin (as this poll suggests).
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2018, 08:54:03 PM »

That is now 3 polls which have it Stabenow +7. Clear tightening. With undecided voters probably are R or breaking toward James this is probably a 3-4 point race right now. James could actually outperform Schuette the way it is going.

Why would undecided voters be R? Undecideds usually break for the party out of power.

Not to mention even in all these polls, James is barely at 42-43.
Undecideds tend to break for the incumbent, which is Advantage Stabenow.
I actually thought undecideds tended to break for the challenger.
If undecideds truly broke for the challenger more often than not, we'd have President Romney, as well as Senators Mandel, Kander, McGinty, Ross, Mack IV, Smith (PA 2012), Hoekstra, Angle, O'Donnell, etc.


The rule of thumb used to be that undecideds broke 2:1 against the incumbent, though that's not true anymore and hasn't' been for a while.
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