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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Make up polls to fend off the polling desert
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Author Topic: Make up polls to fend off the polling desert  (Read 1561 times)
Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« on: October 27, 2018, 10:10:02 am »

We are in a polling desert right now, starved of the #s of quality polls that we deserve while we wait for everyone to conduct their final polls over the next week.

So, to distract yourself and to feed your poll addiction, make up a poll instead. A fake poll is better than no poll at all. These need not be predictions of polls, but can be if you want.

I'll go first.

CNN/SSRS Generic Congressional Ballot

Dem 53%
GOP 42%

Oct 24-27, 782 LV
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2018, 10:17:07 am »

NYT/Siena re-poll: Heller+6

It's over folks
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President Biden
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2018, 10:25:05 am »

WI-Marquette: Walker +10

I told you guys. Wisconsin is the next Arkansas. Democrats spitting on the Midwest and pandering to Atlanta/Dallas/Orange County ensures it.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2018, 10:25:35 am »

CBS: McCaskill +3
        Donnelly +5
        Sinema +4
We’re back baby!
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Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2018, 10:26:37 am »

St. God's Memorial College (666 LV)
Trump Approval

Trump is God! 32%
Trump's really rich. I kinda like him. 12%
Trump scares me a little, he makes good points, though. 11%
Trump IS EVIL!! 34%
I DON'T GIVE A HECK! 11%
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2018, 10:35:24 am »

Using a random number generator for one candidate, and subtracting from 95 to get 2nd candidate, or 100 in races with no third party:

WA-8:
Schrier: 90
Rossi: 10

NY-19:
Delgado: 69
Faso: 26

ND SEN:
Heitkamp: 48
Cramer: 47

CA SEN
De Leon: 86
Feinstein: 14

Brazilian Presidency:
Bolsonaro: 88
Haddad: 12

Bonus: A 2020 poll that doesn't include Biden or Sanders:

Booker: 24
Delaney: 18
Warren: 17
Gillibrand: 10
Gabbard: 5
Harris: 4
Avenatti: 4
Klobuchar: 0

Undecided: 18
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2018, 10:37:01 am »

WA-8:
Schrier: 90
Rossi: 10

NY-19:
Delgado: 69
Faso: 26

ND SEN:
Heitkamp: 48
Cramer: 47

CA SEN
De Leon: 86
Feinstein: 14

Please inject ALL of these into my veins, thanks!
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2018, 11:05:37 am »

NV-SEN/GOV:
UTDH 51
Wacky Jacky 41

Laxalt 50
Sisolak 42

NJ-SEN:
Hugin 48
Menendez 46

TN-SEN:
Bredesen 52
Blackburn 41

TX-SEN:
O'Rourke 50
Cruz 46

CA-22:
Janz 45
Nunes 44

FL-27:
Salazar 54
Shalala 35

NY-27:
McMurray 48
Collins 43

PA-05:
Scanlon 47
Kim 45

#CandidateQualityMatters
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YE
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2018, 11:07:15 am »

UTDH 100
Wacky Jacky 0
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2018, 11:14:39 am »

University of Alabama poll of AL-06:

Poop(R) 48%
Jesus (D) 44%

I'm pretty sure that Poop is gonna slide through in the end given the lean of the district.  It may even end up being a mudslide.
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Grillpill Ethusiasts
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2018, 11:30:17 am »

Montana senate- Tester: 508
                         Weak Candidate Matt Rosendale: 2

Florida governor

Gillum: 54
Desantis: 44
 
Iowa Governor
Hubbel: 48
Reynolds:43

Ohio Governor
Cordray: 49
Dewine: 44

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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2018, 11:41:18 am »

Morrissey leads 49-44.
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Father of Three
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2018, 12:12:13 pm »

Emerson poll of Colorado:
GOV:
Polis 45%
Stapleton 43%

CO-06:
Coffman 39%
Crow 39%

CO-03:
Tipton 8%
Mitsch Bush 3%
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2018, 12:15:12 pm »

Emerson poll of ME-02:

Poliquin: 38
Golden: 36

It’s over folks
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2018, 12:15:15 pm »

Emerson poll of Colorado:
GOV:
Polis 45%
Stapleton 43%

CO-06:
Coffman 39%
Crow 39%

CO-03:
Tipton 8%
Mitsch Bush 3%


Too high decided for the Gov race, not buying it.
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2018, 12:29:00 pm »

Gravis poll released for all 4 Utah congressional districts!

UT-01:
Rob Bishop (R): 50%
Lee Castillo (D): 42%
Others/Undecided: 8%

UT-02:
Shireen Ghorbani (D): 45%
Chris Stewart (R): 43%
Others/Undecided: 8%

UT-03:
John Curtis (R): 55%
James Singer (D): 42%
Others/Undecided: 3%

UT-04:
Mia Love (R): 42%
Ben McAdams (D): 41%
Others/Undecided: 17%
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Daines' Bipartisan Bills™
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2018, 12:32:21 pm »

Frederick Moore (R candidate for HD 37) on the ropes in his own internal (!), Democratic EARTHSLIDE incoming, MT GOP finished:

51% Moore (R)
44% Write-in: Jon Tester (D)
4% Write-in: Steve Bullock (D)
1% Undecided

Senate race in HD-37:

94% Tester (D)
3% Breckenridge (L)
2% Rosendale (R)
1% Undecided

House:

60% Gianforte (R)
37% Williams (D)
3% Swanson (L)

2020 Senate race:

51% Bullock (D)
37% Daines (R)

Trump approval: 66/33 (+33)

Please keep this strictly confidential, I don’t want to get into trouble.
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The Hunt for the Red October Surprise
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2018, 12:46:52 pm »

Poll of Alaskan Natives aged 18-21

Begich 95%
Walker 2%
Dunleavy 0%
Undecided: 3%

Sample size: 100, MoE: 0.4%
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Frenchy
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2018, 12:47:31 pm »

Random Number Generator (No undecideds, so lets pretend it's Vox Populi or something)

LA-Gov 2019
John Bel Edwards* - 10%
John Neely Kennedy - 90%

FL-27
Donna Shalala - 87%
Maria Elvira Salazar - 13%

ND-Sen
Heidi Heitkamp* - 64%
Kevin Cramer - 36%

FL-Sen
Bill Nelson* - 79%
Rick Scott - 21%

FL-Gov
Andrew Gillum - 53% (muh dragging Nelson over the finish line)
Ron DeSantis - 47%

NY-27
Nate McMurray - 16%
Chris Collins* - 84%

NY-Gov
Andrew Cuomo* - 20%
Marcus Molinaro - 79%
Miner/Sharpe/Hawkins - 1%

NV-Sen
Jacky Rosen - 2%
Dean Heller* - 98%
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Republicans for Biden
Zyzz
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2018, 03:00:22 pm »

NM Senate Race
Gary Johnson 55%
Heinrich 40%
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Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2018, 03:03:07 pm »

MI Senate-

John James: 103%
Satan-cow: -11%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2018, 04:52:58 pm »

FOX: Cramer +9

Atlas: "Told you guys Heidi was still in this. She's surging. At this rate she'll be ahead by January. Toss up/tilt D imo tbh imho"
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President Biden
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2018, 04:54:59 pm »

Edmondson +1

"Fake news! Gov-elect Kevin Stitt disagrees!"
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2018, 04:55:52 pm »

NV-Sen
Jacky Rosen - 2%
Dean Heller* - 98%

Are you sure that was an RNG and not the actual result?
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2018, 05:02:36 pm »

Ojeda 54
Miller 45

Bacon 55
Eastman 44
MUH CANDIDATE QUALITY


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