MI-Mitchell: Stabenow +6

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I'm probably more cautious than the average person, so keep that in mind. MI is right now likely D. I have Wisconsin and Ohio also at likely D (but they're safer right now than Michigan), because we haven't seen a poll recently from those states, and i expect some polls in those states might show the race will be (barely) decided in single-digits. PA is solid D. Don't take polls too literally. I had Michigan as toss-up in 2016 because i didn't believe the polls in the Rust Belt were right, because during the primaries the polls there were terrible, and because the states weren't polled enough, and because i truly believed in the Rust Belt electoral college strategy (and turning out the WWC voters). Remember that Trump anticipated all of this, when he saw how Ventura was elected as governor in MN in 1998. He knew exactly what area would make him president (and of course the national environment in 2016 helped him).

It's worth noting that this is a mid-term and that this is very different to the 2016 elections. 1) There is no Trump on the ballot. 2) There is no Clinton on the ballot. 3) This is a mid-term election, with different turn-out and with actual politicians on the ballot. Trump basically carried Michigan with his anti-Washington and populist message, so most likely some of them will skip those elections. And 2020 might be very different from 2018 again for the same reasons mentioned again. So, if Stabenow win with a margin in double digits, don't assume that Trump will lose in Michigan in 2020, even if polls show him behind or with a low approval rating. I'm guessing that Trump in the polls when anticipating the 2016 election would have had low approval ratings in those states as well. This is why i'm skeptical of Democrats flipping Iowa and Ohio in 2020 if they aren't going to change their electoral strategy and platform (more focused on the economy, less on social issues and bashing Trump).