MI-Mitchell: Stabenow +6

[Xing]

Okay, sure, maybe this race has tightened, but notice that Stabenow is... how should I put it... above 50 percent. If there was a race to be found here, Republicans and Democrats alike would've quickly started to spend here, and they haven't. Sorry to break it to James fans, but not every election is going to go just like 2016.

[Xing]

Sorry to break it to James fans, but not every election is going to go just like 2016.

I didn’t claim that, but it’s certainly not the 15- to 20-point Stabenow wipeout we were told was guaranteed to happen. And the only reason I have it as Likely D is because James is a far stronger candidate than Vukmir or Barletta (which I have as Safe D) and running in a more GOP-friendly than Hugin (also Safe D), I don’t think he’ll actually win or that there will be a 2016 redux here.

I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.

[Xing]

I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.

I just don’t think Stabenow is the political goddess people are making her out to be or that MI is a deep blue state again, it’s just that she got really lucky with the national environment this year. I’ll stick with my Likely D rating even if people think it’s ridiculous, and I am also a little more cautious than most other posters here, which is why I have ND/MS-Special/TN still all as Toss-ups (hardly Republican hack ratings, but whatever).

Fair enough, that is at least consistent. I don't think she'll win easily because she's a political goddess, rather because if the GCB is anything like D+7-8, a D+1 state won't be especially close, even if Michigan is starting to trend rightward.

[Xing]

You are truly delusional if you think Kavanaugh helped the democrats. Even MSNBC is saying the GOP got a big boost from it. Americans like winners and democrats aren't winning anything lately. GOP is dominating all the political fights.

Most polls since things have calmed down say that the Kavanaugh confirmation has energized Democrats more than Republicans.

It physically hurts reading whatever SN has to say.

Well, it's basically "Republicans don't care at all about policy or how lawmakers affect the lives of Americans. It's all about 'winning' and triggering the libs" Exhibit A. It may be painful to read, but it's important to remind ourselves where we are right now.