I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.
I just don’t think Stabenow is the political goddess people are making her out to be or that MI is a deep blue state again, it’s just that she got really lucky with the national environment this year. I’ll stick with my Likely D rating even if people think it’s ridiculous, and I am also a little more cautious than most other posters here, which is why I have ND/MS-Special/TN still all as Toss-ups (hardly Republican hack ratings, but whatever).
If that were the case, then Abdul El-Sayed would have creamed Whitmer in the primary. This idea that Kavanaugh hurt Democrats is just plain bullsh**t and it’s actually turning voters against the Republican Party because despite what the GOP echo chamber keeps saying, the vast majority of Americans believe Blasey Ford and opposed Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
Here’s Debbie Stabenow’s map in 2006:
And 2012:
That’s what’s about to happen. Debbie Stabenow is the most well-known politician in this state and she is an entrenched incumbent. She has done nothing to cause her popularity to wane, and in a blue wave year voters are not going to turn out an incumbent Democrat with a high name recognition and approval rating. If her support were actually tanking as you say, then she would have gone negative on him a long time ago. She won’t win every county in the state like Levin used to, but she’s almost to the point of invincibility that Levin enjoyed for his last four terms. And as for the black vote question, Black voters don’t go and vote against their own interests and vote Republican just because the GOP candidate is black. John James won’t get a single African-American vote besides his own.
