Didn't the RNCC jump into this race last week? That suggests this internal might not be too far off the market.
It's not particularly surprising that this race will be much closer than many have expected.
Walden's support for repealing ACA was not especially popular among many of his constituents within the district that contains a much higher population of Senior Citizens than anywhere else within Oregon.
Additionally being associated with Trump's Trade War policies that are hitting Grain Farmers along the Columbia River Gorge portion of the district, are likely taking a hit on traditional 'Pub support levels in that part of the district, and created an opening for McLeod-Skinner to attack him on an issue of major concern to farmers and agricultural communities out here.
Also McLeod-Skinner is not a big fan of increased Gun Control, which likely plays well in a fairly Socially Libertarian district.
The fastest growing population centers of the District are in Jackson County and Deschutes County, where you have a decent # of educated Middle-Aged Voters, that in some places swung hard Romney > HRC between '12 and '16, including multiple precincts in East Medford and parts of Bend.
If 'Pubs are spending $$$ here, they are obviously seeing something going on in their own polling, despite by all standards this should be considered in general a "Safe Republican" district in normal election cycles.
https://www.opb.org/news/article/jamie-mcleod-skinner-oregon-house-democrat-candidate-greg-walden/
