2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Tender Branson]

New CBS/YouGov polls coming today for FL, AZ and IN.

[Tender Branson]

NC (SurveyUSA) has it D+4 in the GCB:

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48-44-2 D/R/I

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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d095bb31-8110-4a7d-8fea-571bf017360f&c=294

[Tender Branson]

NC (SurveyUSA) has it D+4 in the GCB.

D+4 in NC means something like D+10 or D+11 nationally, right ?

[Tender Branson]

NC (SurveyUSA) has it D+4 in the GCB.

D+4 in NC means something like D+10 or D+11 nationally, right ?

In 2016, the US House vote in NC was 53.5-46.5 R btw ...

It was R+1 nationally.

That's a swing of 11 points to the Dems.

[Tender Branson]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

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Awesome, so under the very likely scenario that Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House by a significant margin, both sides will go crazy.

Republicans holding the Senate isn't "very likely".

All it takes is a pickup in AZ and NV and a slight polling error in TX or TN and ... it's gone.

[Tender Branson]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

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Awesome, so under the very likely scenario that Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House by a significant margin, both sides will go crazy.

Republicans holding the Senate isn't "very likely".

All it takes is a pickup in AZ and NV and a slight polling error in TX or TN and ... it's gone.

That's assuming that the Democrats win all the other close races, which is far from certain.  Yes, there's a plausible path for it to happen, but the Democrats have to get all the breaks.  Their chances of doing this are about the same as filling an inside straight in poker.   Sometimes people do fill inside straights, but there's a reason that's a metaphor for something really unlikely happening.

Not all, I assumed ND is a lost cause for the Dems ...

[Tender Branson]

Des Moines Register / Selzer poll for IA congressional districts (GCB):

Iowa (statewide): D+6

IA-01 (Blum-R): D+7

IA-02 (Loebsack-D): D+12

IA-03 (Young-R): D+9

IA-04 (King-R): R+4

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https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/11/03/iowa-poll-suggests-closer-contest-steve-king-2018-jd-scholten-midterms-election-chances-vote-said/1872299002

[Tender Branson]

NM-01 and NM-02 (Research & Polling Inc. / ABQ Journal):

   

https://www.abqjournal.com/1241736/herrell-torres-small-locked-in-tight-race-for-congress.html

[Tender Branson]

CBS will have their final "Battleground tracker" today, but I guess this will only be their House forecast and no new Senate/Governor polls.

[Tender Branson]

Do you think Q will release a final TX poll today ?

[Tender Branson]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

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Wasn't the adjusted D lead something like D+7 only ?

There were a lot of races which had no Republicans running and therefore were uncontested.

Uncontested races shouldn't exist. They just distort the results.

Still, Rasmussen was the worst though.