2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pollster]

Yougov dropped: FL-tied, AZ: Sinema 3+, IN: Braun 3+ https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tight-contests-mark-critical-senate-races-cbs-news-battleground-tracker-poll/?__twitter_impression=true

All of these numbers seem to be slightly to the right of where other public polls have had these races.

[Pollster]

NE-02 (DFM Research)

INCUMBENT Don Bacon (R) - 52
WEAK CANDIDATE Kara Eastman (D) - 45

http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/Nebraska_2nd_DISTRICT_Survey__2018_September_TOPLINE.pdf

DFM is terrific, would be great to see them put out a ND poll.

[Pollster]

Interested to know how Change Research's patented Bias Correct technology has avoided the typical obstacles to polling in Indiana.

Indiana only strictly regulates telephone polling - Change Research is an online pollster.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

The notion that internals by nature show a candidate in a more favorable position than in reality is completely untrue - at least not internals from pollsters who actually want to be of use to their clients and continue working with credibility in the field.

[Pollster]

The D+7 conventional wisdom also does not take into account the strength of candidates recruited in districts like KY-6, WV-3, ME-2, NM-2, WA-3, KS-2, etc.

[Pollster]

Yvette Herrell seaking a rematch in NM-2

[Pollster]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

[Pollster]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

damn it, this is like the one person who can take down Rose pretty easily.

yeah this is an amazing recruit. Great for the GOP image too. She's a star, and I expect Elise Stefanik's new PAC to absolutely DUMP money into supporting her.

Now watch your star recruit losing the primary to Grimm.

I mean, I wouldnt be so sure hell win considering he lost the primary 64-36

Donovan was an incumbent. Grimm put up a reasonably strong result.

However, I agree with jdb that NY-11 starts off as Tilt D at this point.

Even if he loses the primary, Michael Grimm will run a scorched earth campaign and do serious damage to her.

[Pollster]

Obviously not a top tier candidate, but Stephen Lynch has his first primary challenger.

[Pollster]

Crenshaw has drawn his first opponent, and she seems pretty strong. Navy veteran & teacher Elisa Cardnell filed with the FEC today.

Obviously know very little about her, but she appears as though she was created in a factory that produces ideal Democratic candidates.

[Pollster]

Crisanta Duran announces primary challenge to Diana DeGette

[Pollster]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

[Pollster]

Former Cobb County Democratic Party chairman Michael Owens, a Marine Corps veteran who unsuccessfully challenged David Scott in 2014, is seeking a rematch against the nine-term congressman in Georgia’s 13th Congressional District.

[Pollster]

How can someone be a progressive, and a lobbyist?

Many progressive organizations (Planned Parenthood, Greenpeace, labor unions) hire lobbyists and/or retain lobbying firms for the same reasons that oil companies, the NRA, and pharma do. Less attention is paid to this, though, because progressive organizations tend to spend significantly more on grassroots organizing and elections than on legislative lobbying.

[Pollster]

If the best the NRCC can do here is Kean +2 (he has been a political institution in this area for some time and has ran competitively statewide before), Malinowski is probably doing just fine.

[Pollster]

McLaughlin poll has Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leading Irina Vilariño 45-33, Curbelo leads DMP 45-42

[Pollster]

Tlaib in good shape but possibly vulnerable in Dem primary

[Pollster]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

These allegations have been around since 2018:
https://www.cjonline.com/news/20181026/steve-watkins-gop-candidate-for-congress-confronts-allegations-of-sexual-misconduct

What changed?

Apparently someone got hold of photos.

I am hearing that this is a new one - something to do with an intern in his office.

[Pollster]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

These allegations have been around since 2018:
https://www.cjonline.com/news/20181026/steve-watkins-gop-candidate-for-congress-confronts-allegations-of-sexual-misconduct

What changed?

Apparently someone got hold of photos.

I am hearing that this is a new one - something to do with an intern in his office.

I haven't found any news source other than randoms mumbling about it on Twitter. Mind linking something?

Nothing reported yet, but I've got a series of contacts in Kansas (I've done a lot of work there in the Brownback and post-Brownback era) who have all alluded in one way or another. Nobody is telling a consistent story, though. Latest I've heard is that a news outlet (not sure which one) is waiting on a comment from his spox. Could be a Friday night news dump.

Clarifying though that these are strictly rumors, just rumors I am hearing from usually credible sources.