2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[KingSweden]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

I could see a bump from, let’s say, the average of 8 to around 10-11

[JG]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

It makes sense for me. The aftermath of Charlottesville was one of Trump's lowest points. The middle hates chaos and violence; they swung against Hillary Clinton because the Comey letter promised more investigations and mess from the beginning. The question is whether this carries through to Election Day or if something changes the subject.

It's pretty clear Fox want's to change the subject, they are already back talking about the caravan.

But even if Fox does, aren't most, if not almost all, of their viewers already locked in for the Republicans?

[Brittain33]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Are you sure that isn't for women vs men voting Dem? Here's what I see on their website:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.prri.org/research/partisan-polarization-dominates-trump-era-findings-from-the-2018-american-values-survey/

[Devout Centrist]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

+13?!

Makes me skeptical of the whole endeavor...

It's 2500 adults, not likely voters

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Are you sure that isn't for women vs men voting Dem? Here's what I see on their website:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.prri.org/research/partisan-polarization-dominates-trump-era-findings-from-the-2018-american-values-survey/

I'm going by the topline PDF, which says:

Q.8 Now,   suppose   the   2018   congressional   election   was   being   held   TODAY.   If   you   had   to   
choose   between [ROTATE   OPTIONS]   in   your   election   district,   who   would   you   vote   
for?
Oct.   
2018
Sept.   
2018
June   
2018
Mar.   
2018
Oct.   
2017
39 35 41 36 35 The   Republican   candidate
57 44 53 42 43 The   Democratic   candidate
- 6 - 5 6 Other/Third   Party   candidate   
(VOL.)
- - - 3 - Not   going   to   vote   (VOL.)
4 15 6 14 16 Don’t   know/Refused   (VOL.)
100 100 100 100 100 Total

[KingSweden]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

It makes sense for me. The aftermath of Charlottesville was one of Trump's lowest points. The middle hates chaos and violence; they swung against Hillary Clinton because the Comey letter promised more investigations and mess from the beginning. The question is whether this carries through to Election Day or if something changes the subject.

It's pretty clear Fox want's to change the subject, they are already back talking about the caravan.

But even if Fox does, aren't most, if not almost all, of their viewers already locked in for the Republicans?

And some R-leaning Indys who will probably vote R in the end

[Brittain33]

I'm going by the topline PDF, which says...

Hmm, yeah, I see it now. Not sure what's happening with the write-up, then.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm going by the topline PDF, which says...

Hmm, yeah, I see it now. Not sure what's happening with the write-up, then.

I see a possibility: the overall survey is of adults, and that's all the topline PDF seems to report.  But the 48/39 number appears to be among the RV subset (which isn't in the PDF):

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[politicallefty]

I'm hesitant to make any predictions at this point, but it's possible the bottom could be falling out now for Republicans. We could be looking at an outright tsunami at this point.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm hesitant to make any predictions at this point, but it's possible the bottom could be falling out now for Republicans. We could be looking at an outright tsunami at this point.

Combined with the fact that the NRCC is going up in districts like SC-01 and WI-06, it is indicative that things are breaking to the Dems at this point. Unless this is completely contradicted by other GCB polls, it is a strong indicator that undecideds are likely to break towards Dems - or at least not to break towards Rs (it could be even-ish).

The LA Times poll is an outlier at this point, but it is an outlier of the sort that we would expect to see in a real wave based upon polling in previous waves.

For example, in 2010 the last Gallup poll was R+15

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html#polls

And in 2006 the final RCP average was D+11.5, with a couple of polls even showing leads of 20+ for the Dems:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html#polls

[Gass3268]

Of course RCP doesn't use the USC poll, but they did in 2016.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll, Oct. 3-17, 2003 young voters (18-29)

Total:

Trump Approve 26
Disapprove 68

GCB: D 55, R 37

Registered to vote?  Yes 71, No 23

Likelihood to vote:
   Definitely 40   (Among Democrats 54, among Republicans 43)
   Probably 15
   50-50 16
   Probably not 13
   Definitely not 12



Likely Voters (I think this is the "Definitely vote" group):

Trump Approve 25
Disapprove 72

GCB: D 66, R 32

Registered to vote?  Yes 96, No 2

The likelihood to vote in this is apparently the highest ever:

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1056906315409383424

[Skye]

VA-07 Wason Center: Spanberger +1

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Oct-29-CD7-Report-Final.pdf

[KingSweden]

VA-07 Wason Center: Spanberger +1

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Oct-29-CD7-Report-Final.pdf

This is going to be a super close race

[Politician]

VA-07 Wason Center: Spanberger +1

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Oct-29-CD7-Report-Final.pdf

Let's hope the Brat gets spanked.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Older poll, but idk if it has been posted here, Colin slightly up.

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ECUTX3218m1-100118.pdf

[Gass3268]

They don’t do a CGB poll, but Trumps approval dropped 8 points [in Gallup's weekly poll --mod.] today. Will be interesting to see if other polls continue to pick this up and if it’s reflective in the CGB.

[Gass3268]

Suffolk/USA Today is releasing a FL Sen/Gov poll.

[SCNCmod]

What is up with Rasmussen Polls?  They seem to be wildly Off compared to other polls.  I know they are a Republican outfit, but do they just tend to poll pro-republican models or what?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What is up with Rasmussen Polls?  They seem to be wildly Off compared to other polls.  I know they are a Republican outfit, but do they just tend to poll pro-republican models or what?

It's been suggested that their likely voter screen is overly favorable to Republicans, especially in a national environment like this one. 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

NE-02 (DFM Research)

INCUMBENT Don Bacon (R) - 52
WEAK CANDIDATE Kara Eastman (D) - 45

http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/Nebraska_2nd_DISTRICT_Survey__2018_September_TOPLINE.pdf

[Gass3268]

Connecticut poll coming tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/1056984015490568192

[Pollster]

NE-02 (DFM Research)

INCUMBENT Don Bacon (R) - 52
WEAK CANDIDATE Kara Eastman (D) - 45

http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/Nebraska_2nd_DISTRICT_Survey__2018_September_TOPLINE.pdf

DFM is terrific, would be great to see them put out a ND poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NY-27: Tulchin Research (McMurray internal), Oct. 25-28, 400 LV (change from early Oct.)

McMurray (D) 47 (+5)
Collins (R, inc) 43 (+1)
Piegza (Reform) 4 (-2)

[IceSpear]

NY-27: Tulchin Research (McMurray internal), Oct. 25-28, 400 LV (change from early Oct.)

McMurray (D) 47 (+5)
Collins (R, inc) 43 (+1)
Piegza (Reform) 4 (-2)

Read that as Pizza (Reform)