2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1056698446139285505

Dems gained 1 point from last week.

Different poll this is -2 for dems

Last week it was D+8.

There was another Harris Poll. That's confusing.

There are different Harris polls and different Rasmussen polls.  It's hard to keep them all straight.

[wbrocks67]

VA-07 Wason Center

Spanberger (D) 46%
Brat (R) 45%

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Oct-29-CD7-Report-Final.pdf

[Crumpets]

VA-07 Wason Center

Spanberger (D) 46%
Brat (R) 45%

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Oct-29-CD7-Report-Final.pdf

SLAY.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

[Gass3268]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

Wow, thats +4 from last week! Definite outlier, but one I like!

[ON Progressive]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

I wish.

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

Wow, thats +4 from last week! Definite outlier, but one I like!

It certainly could be an outlier, but it has seemed like in the last week or two there's been a gradual shift of momentum toward the Democrats, as shown by fundraising, party advertising choices, rating changes, etc.  This was already starting before the events of last week, so I think it may just be a late break to the out party, as seen in some previous elections (not all of them, of course).

[Comrade Funk]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

Wow, thats +4 from last week! Definite outlier, but one I like!

It certainly could be an outlier, but it has seemed like in the last week or two there's been a gradual shift of momentum toward the Democrats, as shown by fundraising, party advertising choices, rating changes, etc.  This was already starting before the events of last week, so I think it may just be a late break to the out party, as seen in some previous elections (not all of them, of course).

I tend to agree. Almost 0% chance the actual GCB is 17%, but what we should take away from this is that this could be evidence of a shift towards the Democrats.

Or it could be an outlier lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll, Oct. 3-17, 2003 young voters (18-29)

Total:

Trump Approve 26
Disapprove 68

GCB: D 55, R 37

Registered to vote?  Yes 71, No 23

Likelihood to vote:
   Definitely 40   (Among Democrats 54, among Republicans 43)
   Probably 15
   50-50 16
   Probably not 13
   Definitely not 12



Likely Voters (I think this is the "Definitely vote" group):

Trump Approve 25
Disapprove 72

GCB: D 66, R 32

Registered to vote?  Yes 96, No 2

[politicallefty]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

Wow, thats +4 from last week! Definite outlier, but one I like!

It certainly could be an outlier, but it has seemed like in the last week or two there's been a gradual shift of momentum toward the Democrats, as shown by fundraising, party advertising choices, rating changes, etc.  This was already starting before the events of last week, so I think it may just be a late break to the out party, as seen in some previous elections (not all of them, of course).

I tend to agree. Almost 0% chance the actual GCB is 17%, but what we should take away from this is that this could be evidence of a shift towards the Democrats.

Or it could be an outlier lol.

I'm pretty sure I remember reading that that was the most accurate poll in 2016. We didn't even get to 17% in the landslide years of 1964 or 1974. If it's even close though, there's a tsunami coming that a lot aren't seeing right now. If Democrats even get into the 12-14% margin range, Republicans are facing a catastrophic result worse than even Democrats had in 2010.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll, Oct. 3-17, 2003 young voters (18-29)

Total:

Trump Approve 26
Disapprove 68

GCB: D 55, R 37

Registered to vote?  Yes 71, No 23

Likelihood to vote:
   Definitely 40   (Among Democrats 54, among Republicans 43)
   Probably 15
   50-50 16
   Probably not 13
   Definitely not 12



Likely Voters (I think this is the "Definitely vote" group):

Trump Approve 25
Disapprove 72

GCB: D 66, R 32

Registered to vote?  Yes 96, No 2

The lack of youth spike in EV in places like Florida is concerning but we’ve had too many polls like these to dismiss youth enthusiasm going into the midterm. It’s very possible the Dems and youth vote are going to come out on ED

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson dropped a bunch of polls, apologies if any of these are repeats.

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-democrats-favored-pick-governorships-mi-nm-hold-us-senate-seat-nj

NJ-SEN: Menendez (D) 47, Hugin (R) 42
MI-SEN: Stabenow (D) 52, James (R) 43
MI-GOV: Whitmer (D) 52, Schuette (R) 41
NM-SEN: Heinrich (D) 48, Rich R (32), Johnson (L) 16
NM-GOV: Lujan Grisham (D) 53, Pearce (R) 44
NM-01: Haaland (D) 51, Arnold-Jones (R) 41
NM-02: Torres Small (D) 47, Herrell (R) 47
NM-03: Lujan (D) 54, McFall (R) 37

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac is releasing a TX-Sen poll today. They only do certain states, but Iowa or Ohio would have been better choices for this week.

[wbrocks67]

TBH, I don't really foresee younger voters voting early. It would seem more likely, to me, that they'll come out on Election Day. That's why I think some of these "young people aren't coming out to vote at all because they're not voting early" takes are very off.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

[Gass3268]

TBH, I don't really foresee younger voters voting early. It would seem more likely, to me, that they'll come out on Election Day. That's why I think some of these "young people aren't coming out to vote at all because they're not voting early" takes are very off.

About 40% would be pretty good! I do have to say I'm happy that I'm now in the 30-45 group now. We vote at higher rates!

[KingSweden]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

+13?!

Makes me skeptical of the whole endeavor...

[libertpaulian]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Yeah, I don't see Dems getting 18% of the popular vote.  If that's the case, not only do Dems hold all their 2012 seats, but they also pick up AZ, NV, TN, TX, and MS-Special.

I'd like to see a few more polls to corroborate this.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Yeah, I don't see Dems getting 18% of the popular vote.  If that's the case, not only do Dems hold all their 2012 seats, but they also pick up AZ, NV, TN, TX, and MS-Special.

I'd like to see a few more polls to corroborate this.

Well, the LA Times poll this morning was D+17.  But yeah, this large a jump needs more corroboration.

[Yellowhammer]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Yeah, I don't see Dems getting 18% of the popular vote.  If that's the case, not only do Dems hold all their 2012 seats, but they also pick up AZ, NV, TN, TX, and MS-Special.

I'd like to see a few more polls to corroborate this.

Well, the LA Times poll this morning was D+17.  But yeah, this large a jump needs more corroboration.

It's much more likely that Republicans actually win the house popular vote than for the democrats to win it by such an absurdly high number.

[Zaybay]

Huh, thats two now with Ds at that high of a margin. Still an outlier.....but Im starting to have second thoughts.

[Brittain33]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

It makes sense for me. The aftermath of Charlottesville was one of Trump's lowest points. The middle hates chaos and violence; they swung against Hillary Clinton because the Comey letter promised more investigations and mess from the beginning. The question is whether this carries through to Election Day or if something changes the subject. I know some people refuse to see any connection between the pipe bombs and the attacks and Trump but the median voter understands the danger in what Trump and his allies in the media have been saying about Dems and Soros.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Yeah, I don't see Dems getting 18% of the popular vote.  If that's the case, not only do Dems hold all their 2012 seats, but they also pick up AZ, NV, TN, TX, and MS-Special.

I'd like to see a few more polls to corroborate this.

Well, the LA Times poll this morning was D+17.  But yeah, this large a jump needs more corroboration.

It's much more likely that Republicans actually win the house popular vote than for the democrats to win it by such an absurdly high number.

Both are unlikely, but I strongly suspect the final margin will be closer to D+17 than to R+.00001.

[Gass3268]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

It makes sense for me. The aftermath of Charlottesville was one of Trump's lowest points. The middle hates chaos and violence; they swung against Hillary Clinton because the Comey letter promised more investigations and mess from the beginning. The question is whether this carries through to Election Day or if something changes the subject.

It's pretty clear Fox want's to change the subject, they are already back talking about the caravan.