FL-SEN: Nelson + 1 (Strategic Research Associates)

[2016]

https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Latest-poll-Florida-gov-senate-races-neck-and-neck-498545201.html

Nelson 46
Scott 45

Same Poll has DeSantis up 3 over Gillum.

[2016]

Has Trump approval at a 53-44 (+9) in Florida. #Yikes

Same Pollster has Cramer ahead by 16 in ND and Manchin ahead by 16 in WV.

[2016]

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

[2016]

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.

[2016]

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.

The panhandle is not a large region in terms of population. I can buy that the race will shift 2 points R, or the approval of Trump in the state by 3, but what you are suggesting is a move of around 10-15 approval points out of nowhere. It doesnt add up. And seriously, this is a brand new pollster with no background or history, we dont know its quality. But it should be incredibly clear that this is an outlier, no matter how you slice it.

If FL is an outlier so is West Virginia. LOL, quite funny how you bragged all around Manchin being up 16 when he clearly isn't.

[2016]

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.

The panhandle is not a large region in terms of population. I can buy that the race will shift 2 points R, or the approval of Trump in the state by 3, but what you are suggesting is a move of around 10-15 approval points out of nowhere. It doesnt add up. And seriously, this is a brand new pollster with no background or history, we dont know its quality. But it should be incredibly clear that this is an outlier, no matter how you slice it.

If FL is an outlier so is West Virginia. LOL, quite funny how you bragged all around Manchin being up 16 when he clearly isn't.

You must be confusing me with someone else, I never bought the Manchin +16 poll. It just shows how bad the pollster is. Manchin is up, probably by around 7-10 points, 16 is excessive.

Anyway, it seems like we can both agree that both polls, in fact, all polls done by this pollster, have been odd and outliers entirely.

No, I don't. FOX had Cramer up 12 in their latest Poll and this Poll has Cramer up 16...entirely reasonable.

I predict that Heitkamp will lose by 20.

[2016]

Here is now the entire Poll

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_FL_October_Survey.pdf

54 Female
46 Male

65 White
15 Black
13 Hispanic
7 Other

Party ID
D 43
R 41
I 15