Oh the red avatars on here, trying to will a tossup race as anything other than a tossup, even going to the lengths of finding a sliver of hope in an old people poll conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 26. I get the enthusiasm and that you want to really win this seat, but... likely D, lean D, it is not.
Pure tossup and a race to watch late on Election Day. And, as it always has been, the most vulnerable Republican seat this cycle. Don't get ahead of yourselves using what basically is an old poll conducted over a way too long period. Keep that celebratory champagne on ice.
I have to agree with this. Most people on here act as if Nevada is a lean Democratic state, whereas I'm not so sure if it has reached that point. While I think Rosen will win, I also don't rule out the possibility of a narrow Heller victory. In my view, this race remains a tossup.
You don't think a state that went for Clinton and elected a Democratic Senator in a pretty bad night for Democrats twice (2010 and 2016) is at least a Lean D state? Bush was the last Republican to win there nationally, and Heller held on by the skin of his teeth against a damaged opponent.
Heller could win, but that does not suggest Democrats are having a good night at all. It probably means at least R+4 in the Senate, and that Democrats are coming up quite a bit short in the House. It amuses me that people disregard polls like this, but eat up a poll showing Heller winning Latinos.
I have to agree with this. Most people on here act as if Nevada is a lean Democratic state, whereas I'm not so sure if it has reached that point. While I think Rosen will win, I also don't rule out the possibility of a narrow Heller victory. In my view, this race remains a tossup.
First off, the reason why Harry Reid won in 2010 was because of his opponent. Sharron Angle was a terrible candidate, by all accounts, and if Reid had faced a more formidable Republican challenger, he almost certainly would have lost. Second, I don't deny the victories of Clinton and Cortez-Masto in Nevada during 2016. Their victory margins however, were under three points, and Nevada roughly approximated the national popular vote. Third, the fact that Heller did indeed manage to win narrowly in 2012, even with Obama at the top of the ballot, shows that he's not completely DOA.
Again, I think that Rosen will narrowly edge it out, but a pickup here is by no means guaranteed. And the polls continue to reflect that.
