MI-EPIC/MRA: Whitmer +5

[Virginiá]

I am just ecstatic that Jocelyn Benson is looking like the next Michigan Secretary of State, and riding on a wave that will not only deliver a huge package of pro-voter reforms but also fair redistricting.

I mean, look at this bio snippet:

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She seems like a true believer in voting rights and voter access. It's a huge change from the dominant force in SoS offices around the country over the past 8 years: Republican empty suits or full blown partisan hacks who have leaned heavily on their official powers to shrink the electorate to advantage the GOP. I'm not saying all of them are bad, not at all, but taken as a whole, they are bad enough to where it's fair to say that even for Republican-leaning voters, let alone any Democrat or left-leaning voter, who care about fair elections should never, ever vote for a Republican Secretary of State. Not in this climate. Not if they don't want to risk accidentally putting in a person more devoted to their party's grip on power than the people.

[Virginiá]

This thread is a good example of the extreme partisanship which time and time again is displayed by posters on this board. While the most recent polls have tightened somewhat, I still think that Democrats will win easily in Michigan's statewide races this year. There has been a trend away from the Republican Party, and Michigan is still a Democratic leaning state.

Michigan is not really a dem leaning state anymore. Snyder got elected twice for governor. Trump won in 2016. Macomb county used to be a democratic county but has been moving toward the republicans for years. Oakland County actually has moved left from where it used to be because of the yuppie base for the democrats it has there. Michigan is a purple state.

Depends on how you want to look at it. Look at the party vote share of legislative elections over the past 15+ years:




You see a trend, right? In the state House popular vote - particularly relevant since they hold elections every 2 years vs 4 for the Senate, Democrats have won the popular vote in all but 3 cycles since 2002. And in 2 of the 3 they lost it, they came very close to winning.

Michigan isn't as Republican as you think. It's swingy enough for the party that doesn't control the White House to win executive offices, but the electorate definitely leans Democratic as a whole. The only reason the MIGOP has had a grip on the legislature is because of gerrymandering. They would have lost the state House in 2012 otherwise.