MI EPIC-MRA: Stabenow +7
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Author Topic: MI EPIC-MRA: Stabenow +7  (Read 2501 times)
libertpaulian
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« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2018, 02:14:21 PM »

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At least I've battle tested my model. It's made two wrong calls in recent elections.

VA for Trump, and the Alabama senate race.

It went 49-1 in the Trump election with correct calls for MN (Hillary), MI (Trump), PA (Trump), WI (Trump).

The only races it's miscalled are races where there is a large lead that gets turned over at the very end. And that's because the safety margin is not quite large enough.

Feel free to supply your own model and we'll see how it does in these senate elections. Smiley
Weren't you the one who predicted Cruz would win bigly in Indiana and thus cause a brokered convention? Tongue
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2018, 02:17:41 PM »

MI, WI and PA are returning to form during the Obama years, in which he won the state by almost double figures
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2018, 02:23:24 PM »

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I also said that Hillary was obviously elected. Wink There's a difference between making a prediction and making an election call which is what ON progressive is talking about.

He's referring to my model that we can predict an election solely on the margin of the votes and the number of votes that are in. I've witnessed lots of elections, and it generally holds, that the inverse ratio of the votes counted will be the margin of the votes.

So, if 10 percent of the votes are in, a margin of 10 percent would be sufficient to call the votes. 20 percent of the votes being in, a margin of 5 percent would be sufficient to call the vote.

50 percent of the votes being in a margin of 2 percent would be sufficient to call the vote.

As you can see, occasionally this model doesn't work as it didn't with the early leads in VA and AL, Trump was up over 5 in VA, which triggered the early call. Same with Alabama.

The correct way to fix that would be 1/2x, meaning that 20 percent in and a margin of 10 percent is sufficient for a call, margin of 5 percent is callable at 40, and at 2 percent would be callable at about 75 in.

My data shows that this model would have gone 51-0 rather than 49-2. I may yet tweak it, but the math behind it is rather simple and profound.
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SN2903
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« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2018, 04:30:12 PM »

MI, WI and PA are returning to form during the Obama years, in which he won the state by almost double figures
Dream on. Trump is not on the ballot. Some voters that may want to put a check on him or are unhappy with the GOP congress may also prefer him for president over the democrat.
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Badger
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« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2018, 05:30:03 PM »

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At least I've battle tested my model. It's made two wrong calls in recent elections.

VA for Trump, and the Alabama senate race.

It went 49-1 in the Trump election with correct calls for MN (Hillary), MI (Trump), PA (Trump), WI (Trump).

The only races it's miscalled are races where there is a large lead that gets turned over at the very end. And that's because the safety margin is not quite large enough.

The fix is rather easy, expand the margins to 1/2x, and make sure that the margin clears and stays over that line rather than bouncing right at the edge. And/or, hold off on calling tossups until 75 percent are in. 

Feel free to supply your own model and we'll see how it does in these senate elections. Smiley

Having an incorrect model as one thing. Being blindingly obstinate about all facts and evidence to the contrary because it goes against your precious model, which is exactly what you did the night of the Alabama senate election, is wholly another thing.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2018, 05:49:23 PM »

The surge is real. I'm from Michigan and was at the James rally. 4,000 people there and 6,000 rsvped . The lead is down to single digits right now and that's if you believe the polls. The race is close to margin of error right now. I don't know anyone voting for Stabenow besides 2 people who always vote dem all the swing voters I know are voting for James. James ads are working. Stabenows negatives are up big time


Want to put money on it? Honest question. I'll put up a contract on predictit giving you 8 to 1 odds

Arrogance isn't the best kind of response.

Nor is sanctimoniousness. And that says nothing whatsoever about the pure irony ore content of your own post.

 BTW, there was nothing arrogant about my post. An 8 to 1 odds offer in this case is a ready source of earning money. What you blithely refer to as arrogance was a flat-out moneymaker for me.

What I meant by arrogance is that you so casually dismiss the arguments that other people put forth.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2018, 05:55:48 PM »

They will both lose, but if Robert O'Rourke had John James's biography and James had O'Rourke's slobbering media obsession, they would both win
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Politician
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« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2018, 05:56:32 PM »

They will both lose, but if Robert O'Rourke had John James's biography and James had O'Rourke's slobbering media obsession, they would both win
What is with your O'Rourke derangement syndrome?
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2018, 06:01:46 PM »

They will both lose, but if Robert O'Rourke had John James's biography and James had O'Rourke's slobbering media obsession, they would both win
What is with your O'Rourke derangement syndrome?
He's basically the drunk, violent, and spoiled prep schooler you guys spent months pretending Brett Kavanaugh was
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SN2903
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« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2018, 06:08:31 PM »

They will both lose, but if Robert O'Rourke had John James's biography and James had O'Rourke's slobbering media obsession, they would both win
What is with your O'Rourke derangement syndrome?
He's basically the drunk, violent, and spoiled prep schooler you guys spent months pretending Brett Kavanaugh was
Haha yeah he seems like a phony.
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Jags
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« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2018, 06:38:51 PM »

They will both lose, but if Robert O'Rourke had John James's biography and James had O'Rourke's slobbering media obsession, they would both win
Nice zinger calling Beto Robert, vote Rafael Cruz!
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Badger
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« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2018, 06:42:55 PM »

The surge is real. I'm from Michigan and was at the James rally. 4,000 people there and 6,000 rsvped . The lead is down to single digits right now and that's if you believe the polls. The race is close to margin of error right now. I don't know anyone voting for Stabenow besides 2 people who always vote dem all the swing voters I know are voting for James. James ads are working. Stabenows negatives are up big time


Want to put money on it? Honest question. I'll put up a contract on predictit giving you 8 to 1 odds

Arrogance isn't the best kind of response.

Nor is sanctimoniousness. And that says nothing whatsoever about the pure irony ore content of your own post.

 BTW, there was nothing arrogant about my post. An 8 to 1 odds offer in this case is a ready source of earning money. What you blithely refer to as arrogance was a flat-out moneymaker for me.

What I meant by arrogance is that you so casually dismiss the arguments that other people put forth.

Yes, I readily and casually disregard arguments others put forth when their arguments are utter drek. It's called intelligence, not arrogance.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2018, 06:46:26 PM »

They will both lose, but if Robert O'Rourke had John James's biography and James had O'Rourke's slobbering media obsession, they would both win
What is with your O'Rourke derangement syndrome?
He's basically the drunk, violent, and spoiled prep schooler you guys spent months pretending Brett Kavanaugh was

Yes, a DUI and jumping the fence at a high school pool is completely analogous to sexual assault. Good call.

Plus there's the little thing of being able to acknowledge and repent from one's younger if your behavior. Something Kavanaugh has shown no inclination 4, because people like you will Embrace him, sexual batterer or not.

And before you complain how unfair that an accusation that is, please recall that a majority of Republicans polled supported Kavanaugh being confirmed even if the allegations against him proved true. Only 1/3 opposed that position. It is very clear which column you are in, which rob you any sort of moral authority to pass judgment.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #38 on: October 26, 2018, 06:55:46 PM »

They will both lose, but if Robert O'Rourke had John James's biography and James had O'Rourke's slobbering media obsession, they would both win
What is with your O'Rourke derangement syndrome?
He's basically the drunk, violent, and spoiled prep schooler you guys spent months pretending Brett Kavanaugh was

Yes, a DUI and jumping the fence at a high school pool is completely analogous to sexual assault. Good call.

Plus there's the little thing of being able to acknowledge and repent from one's younger if your behavior. Something Kavanaugh has shown no inclination 4, because people like you will Embrace him, sexual batterer or not.

And before you complain how unfair that an accusation that is, please recall that a majority of Republicans polled supported Kavanaugh being confirmed even if the allegations against him proved true. Only 1/3 opposed that position. It is very clear which column you are in, which rob you any sort of moral authority to pass judgment.
Except it's proven that Bobby almost killed people in a drunken rage while trying to evade police, there has never been any proof whatsoever presented with regards to the Kavanaugh allegations
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