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November 25, 2020, 08:37:45 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MI EPIC-MRA: Stabenow +7
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Author Topic: MI EPIC-MRA: Stabenow +7  (Read 1473 times)
DataGuy
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« on: October 25, 2018, 07:56:25 AM »
« edited: October 25, 2018, 08:01:35 AM by DataGuy »

Stabenow: 49%
James: 42%

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/25/free-press-poll-whitmer-lead-over-schuette-shrinks-5-points/1748709002/
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2018, 08:05:49 AM »

Interesting. Well, some pollsters are going to be very wrong this year.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2018, 08:17:58 AM »

+23 lead to a +7 lead in a month? Oh.

For now, it's an outlier.
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2018, 08:21:01 AM »

I wonder if everyone's gonna be wrong about MI's margin this year. Not that I believe that Stabenow will lose, anyway.
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We Made PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2018, 08:35:40 AM »

Oh great. Another two dozen headlines of James apparently closing the gap, blue wave receding, and Dems in dissaray. Just wait until the next Stabenow +17 poll.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2018, 08:41:45 AM »

Does anyone know if the NRSC or RGA are spending here?
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2018, 08:52:09 AM »

Remember!  I will trade JJ FOR Cruz.
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Neoliberalism Is The Enemy Of Civilization
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2018, 08:56:07 AM »

MI is not voting for a hack like JJ.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2018, 09:01:15 AM »


they're not going to vote for a hack like JJ Abrams but they will vote for an energetic young man with a promising future who will actually represent their interests, John James.
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2018, 09:13:25 AM »


they're not going to vote for a hack like JJ Abrams but they will vote for an energetic young man with a promising future who will actually represent their interests, John James.

Lower your expectations significantly
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2018, 09:15:05 AM »


they're not going to vote for a hack like JJ Abrams but they will vote for an energetic young man with a promising future who will actually represent their interests, John James.

Lower your expectations significantly
you mean to say, Curb Your Enthusiasm. Tongue
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2018, 09:24:30 AM »

One of our posters is really going to like this poll.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2018, 12:37:15 PM »

Outlier or not, the trend is for James right now. There has been appreciable movement in every poll by every garbage Michigan pollster away from Stabenow towards James in the past few weeks.

It likely will NOT be enough for James to pull off the upset. Real Clear Politics shifted the race from Likely to Lean D as a result of this poll, FWIW.

+23 lead to a +7 lead in a month? Oh.

For now, it's an outlier.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2018, 12:45:53 PM »

When the RCP average for this race is Stabenow +3.5, then we'll talk. Otherwise, Safe D.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2018, 12:49:59 PM »

Safe to Likely maybe. It would take something incredible for James to win.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2018, 01:04:39 PM »

No, James will not win. No, I donít think he will lose by double digits.
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Badger
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2018, 05:50:15 PM »

Why does Michigan have so many bad polling companies?
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2018, 05:59:23 PM »

Safe D -> Lean D.
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2018, 06:01:42 PM »


I see your laughable election night analysis of the Alabama Senate race has taught you nothing. Least of all circumspection or shame.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2018, 06:06:39 PM »


I see your laughable election night analysis of the Alabama Senate race has taught you nothing. Least of all circumspection or shame.

I enjoy coming back to the Alabama Senate results thread sometimes, in no small part to laugh at Ben Kenobi's mind model that failed miserably.
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SN2903
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2018, 06:06:56 PM »

The surge is real. I'm from Michigan and was at the James rally. 4,000 people there and 6,000 rsvped . The lead is down to single digits right now and that's if you believe the polls. The race is close to margin of error right now. I don't know anyone voting for Stabenow besides 2 people who always vote dem all the swing voters I know are voting for James. James ads are working. Stabenows negatives are up big time
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2018, 06:16:37 PM »

The surge is real. I'm from Michigan and was at the James rally. 4,000 people there and 6,000 rsvped . The lead is down to single digits right now and that's if you believe the polls. The race is close to margin of error right now. I don't know anyone voting for Stabenow besides 2 people who always vote dem all the swing voters I know are voting for James. James ads are working. Stabenows negatives are up big time


Want to put money on it? Honest question. I'll put up a contract on predictit giving you 8 to 1 odds
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2018, 07:50:54 PM »

The surge is real. I'm from Michigan and was at the James rally. 4,000 people there and 6,000 rsvped . The lead is down to single digits right now and that's if you believe the polls. The race is close to margin of error right now. I don't know anyone voting for Stabenow besides 2 people who always vote dem all the swing voters I know are voting for James. James ads are working. Stabenows negatives are up big time


Want to put money on it? Honest question. I'll put up a contract on predictit giving you 8 to 1 odds

Arrogance isn't the best kind of response.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2018, 10:49:28 AM »

The surge is real. I'm from Michigan and was at the James rally. 4,000 people there and 6,000 rsvped . The lead is down to single digits right now and that's if you believe the polls. The race is close to margin of error right now. I don't know anyone voting for Stabenow besides 2 people who always vote dem all the swing voters I know are voting for James. James ads are working. Stabenows negatives are up big time


Want to put money on it? Honest question. I'll put up a contract on predictit giving you 8 to 1 odds

Arrogance isn't the best kind of response.

Nor is sanctimoniousness. And that says nothing whatsoever about the pure irony ore content of your own post.

 BTW, there was nothing arrogant about my post. An 8 to 1 odds offer in this case is a ready source of earning money. What you blithely refer to as arrogance was a flat-out moneymaker for me.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2018, 02:13:42 PM »

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At least I've battle tested my model. It's made two wrong calls in recent elections.

VA for Trump, and the Alabama senate race.

It went 49-1 in the Trump election with correct calls for MN (Hillary), MI (Trump), PA (Trump), WI (Trump).

The only races it's miscalled are races where there is a large lead that gets turned over at the very end. And that's because the safety margin is not quite large enough.

The fix is rather easy, expand the margins to 1/2x, and make sure that the margin clears and stays over that line rather than bouncing right at the edge. And/or, hold off on calling tossups until 75 percent are in. 

Feel free to supply your own model and we'll see how it does in these senate elections. Smiley
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