NV Benenson/AARP poll with 79% 50+ voters: Heller +1
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  NV Benenson/AARP poll with 79% 50+ voters: Heller +1
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Author Topic: NV Benenson/AARP poll with 79% 50+ voters: Heller +1  (Read 1080 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 25, 2018, 10:55:05 AM »

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/elderly-voters-split-on-senate-governor-races-but-oppose-question-3-new-poll-found/

Heller 44
Rosen 43
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2018, 10:56:50 AM »

And the youth there are predominately D, right? I think Rosen will be the next Reid or Hillary and not the next Berkley or whoever lost to Heller last.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2018, 10:58:24 AM »

Not the greatest poll for Heller.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2018, 11:04:33 AM »

If this is accurate (big if) then Sisolak Rosen will easily win. Trump won 50+ voters in Nevada by 7 points.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2018, 11:05:37 AM »

And the youth there are predominately D, right? I think Rosen will be the next Reid or Hillary and not the next Berkley or whoever lost to Heller last.

Even Berkley did better than the polls showed. They had Heller up by 4 and he won by 1.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2018, 11:12:57 AM »

Watch the usual suspects ignore the 50+ voters or the +1 part and say "Welp, Heller's ahead again, this race is over, I knew it."

If Democrats only remain slightly ahead in early voting, I might move this to Lean D, but for now, Likely D race is Likely D.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2018, 11:30:20 AM »

The unbeatable titan will be slain

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2018, 11:34:35 AM »

As young people will represent much more than 21% of the electorate, this is a good poll for Rosen.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2018, 11:35:14 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2018, 11:41:41 AM by Seriously? »

Oh the red avatars on here, trying to will a tossup race as anything other than a tossup, even going to the lengths of finding a sliver of hope in an old people poll conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 26. I get the enthusiasm and that you want to really win this seat, but... likely D, lean D, it is not.

Pure tossup and a race to watch late on Election Day. And, as it always has been, the most vulnerable Republican seat this cycle. Don't get ahead of yourselves using what basically is an old poll conducted over a way too long period. Keep that celebratory champagne on ice.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2018, 11:52:41 AM »

Oh the red avatars on here, trying to will a tossup race as anything other than a tossup, even going to the lengths of finding a sliver of hope in an old people poll conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 26. I get the enthusiasm and that you want to really win this seat, but... likely D, lean D, it is not.

Pure tossup and a race to watch late on Election Day. And, as it always has been, the most vulnerable Republican seat this cycle. Don't get ahead of yourselves using what basically is an old poll conducted over a way too long period. Keep that celebratory champagne on ice.

I have to agree with this. Most people on here act as if Nevada is a lean Democratic state, whereas I'm not so sure if it has reached that point. While I think Rosen will win, I also don't rule out the possibility of a narrow Heller victory. In my view, this race remains a tossup.
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2018, 11:56:22 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2018, 12:13:56 PM by Xing »

Oh the red avatars on here, trying to will a tossup race as anything other than a tossup, even going to the lengths of finding a sliver of hope in an old people poll conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 26. I get the enthusiasm and that you want to really win this seat, but... likely D, lean D, it is not.

Pure tossup and a race to watch late on Election Day. And, as it always has been, the most vulnerable Republican seat this cycle. Don't get ahead of yourselves using what basically is an old poll conducted over a way too long period. Keep that celebratory champagne on ice.

I have to agree with this. Most people on here act as if Nevada is a lean Democratic state, whereas I'm not so sure if it has reached that point. While I think Rosen will win, I also don't rule out the possibility of a narrow Heller victory. In my view, this race remains a tossup.

You don't think a state that went for Clinton and elected a Democratic Senator in a pretty bad night for Democrats twice (2010 and 2016) is at least a Lean D state? Bush was the last Republican to win there nationally, and Heller held on by the skin of his teeth against a damaged opponent.

Heller could win, but that does not suggest Democrats are having a good night at all. It probably means at least R+4 in the Senate, and that Democrats are coming up quite a bit short in the House. It amuses me that people disregard polls like this, but eat up a poll showing Heller winning Latinos.
I have to agree with this. Most people on here act as if Nevada is a lean Democratic state, whereas I'm not so sure if it has reached that point. While I think Rosen will win, I also don't rule out the possibility of a narrow Heller victory. In my view, this race remains a tossup.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2018, 12:05:16 PM »


Wacky Mikasa
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2018, 12:15:18 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2018, 12:23:32 PM by Seriously? »

No. It's a tossup in every definition of the word.

I am not saying Heller couldn't lose. He definitely can. However, as I have stated before: 1) Heller is an incumbent. Nevada likes incumbent Senators, generally; 2) Average margin gives a slight 2-point edge to Heller here per 538.

This state of the polling in this race is not even close to a lean D at this point. It's a tossup.

Others may have eaten up polls about the Latino vote looking "favorable" to Heller. I am not going to bank anything on a small subsample of any ethnic group for anything. I've consistently called this race what it is: a tossup.

Oh the red avatars on here, trying to will a tossup race as anything other than a tossup, even going to the lengths of finding a sliver of hope in an old people poll conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 26. I get the enthusiasm and that you want to really win this seat, but... likely D, lean D, it is not.

Pure tossup and a race to watch late on Election Day. And, as it always has been, the most vulnerable Republican seat this cycle. Don't get ahead of yourselves using what basically is an old poll conducted over a way too long period. Keep that celebratory champagne on ice.

You don't think a state that went for Clinton and elected a Democratic Senator in a pretty bad night for Democrats twice (2010 and 2016) is at least a Lean D state? Bush was the last Republican to win there nationally, and Heller held on by the skin of his teeth against a damaged opponent.

Heller could win, but that does not suggest Democrats are having a good night at all. It probably means at least R+4 in the Senate, and that Democrats are coming up quite a bit short in the House. It amuses me that people disregard polls like this, but eat up a poll showing Heller winning Latinos.
I have to agree with this. Most people on here act as if Nevada is a lean Democratic state, whereas I'm not so sure if it has reached that point. While I think Rosen will win, I also don't rule out the possibility of a narrow Heller victory. In my view, this race remains a tossup.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2018, 12:44:02 PM »

Oh the red avatars on here, trying to will a tossup race as anything other than a tossup, even going to the lengths of finding a sliver of hope in an old people poll conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 26. I get the enthusiasm and that you want to really win this seat, but... likely D, lean D, it is not.

Pure tossup and a race to watch late on Election Day. And, as it always has been, the most vulnerable Republican seat this cycle. Don't get ahead of yourselves using what basically is an old poll conducted over a way too long period. Keep that celebratory champagne on ice.

I have to agree with this. Most people on here act as if Nevada is a lean Democratic state, whereas I'm not so sure if it has reached that point. While I think Rosen will win, I also don't rule out the possibility of a narrow Heller victory. In my view, this race remains a tossup.

You don't think a state that went for Clinton and elected a Democratic Senator in a pretty bad night for Democrats twice (2010 and 2016) is at least a Lean D state? Bush was the last Republican to win there nationally, and Heller held on by the skin of his teeth against a damaged opponent.

Heller could win, but that does not suggest Democrats are having a good night at all. It probably means at least R+4 in the Senate, and that Democrats are coming up quite a bit short in the House. It amuses me that people disregard polls like this, but eat up a poll showing Heller winning Latinos.
I have to agree with this. Most people on here act as if Nevada is a lean Democratic state, whereas I'm not so sure if it has reached that point. While I think Rosen will win, I also don't rule out the possibility of a narrow Heller victory. In my view, this race remains a tossup.

First off, the reason why Harry Reid won in 2010 was because of his opponent. Sharron Angle was a terrible candidate, by all accounts, and if Reid had faced a more formidable Republican challenger, he almost certainly would have lost. Second, I don't deny the victories of Clinton and Cortez-Masto in Nevada during 2016. Their victory margins however, were under three points, and Nevada roughly approximated the national popular vote. Third, the fact that Heller did indeed manage to win narrowly in 2012, even with Obama at the top of the ballot, shows that he's not completely DOA.

Again, I think that Rosen will narrowly edge it out, but a pickup here is by no means guaranteed. And the polls continue to reflect that.
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