ND-Strategic Research Associates: Cramer +16

[Arkansas Yankee]

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Why are you traumatizing me with a photo of in unmissed Blanche.  

[Badger]

It's okay Dems. Goal should be to at least hold steady or even gain a seat at this point (which is remarkable given the map).

50-50 chance of either depending on MO.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't know what to say. It's true that polling is hard in North Dakota due to no voter registration. That said, I think she'll lose by double digits now.

[MT Treasurer]

Good riddance to one of the worst Democratic Senators, must be humiliating to lose by such a large margin in what most people think will be a massive Democratic wave year. I’ll keep this as Toss-up because I don’t want to get my hopes up and these red states always fall for Democrats who pretend to be "moderate", but this poll is certainly encouraging.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Good riddance to one of the worst Democratic Senators, must be humiliating to lose by such a large margin in what most people think will be a massive Democratic wave year. I’ll keep this as Toss-up because I don’t want to get my hopes up and these red states always fall for Democrats who pretend to be "moderate", but this poll is certainly encouraging.

Wrong, Tester's Coattails will easily close the gap and in fact Heitkamp will also win by 24.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good riddance to one of the worst Democratic Senators, must be humiliating to lose by such a large margin in what most people think will be a massive Democratic wave year. I’ll keep this as Toss-up because I don’t want to get my hopes up and these red states always fall for Democrats who pretend to be "moderate", but this poll is certainly encouraging.

If Dems replicate the 272 blue wall its a neutral year, even if they take the House, its not a full blown wave.

[IceSpear]

Good riddance to one of the worst Democratic Senators, must be humiliating to lose by such a large margin in what most people think will be a massive Democratic wave year. I’ll keep this as Toss-up because I don’t want to get my hopes up and these red states always fall for Democrats who pretend to be "moderate", but this poll is certainly encouraging.

You're saying "good riddance" and talking about her humiliating loss but still keeping it as a toss up?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Good riddance, though she's not as bad as McCaskill.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a realignment since Byron Dorgan left, it's not good riddance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yikes, lol. If only she did a little more retail politicking and shook a few more hands at the state fair and knocked on a few more doors, this race would be Likely D like Atlas told me!

Byron Dorgan was gonna lose to Hoeven, that's why he retired, it's a GOP state

[Beet]

Live footage of Heitkamp's Kavanaugh vote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_z4IuxAqpE

[Wisconsin+17]

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Goddamnit. Now I have to clean off my screen.

[Lachi]

I don't get how Heitkamp gets blanched as ND decisively votes to legalize Marijuana.

Cause its not passing.

Plus ND has been inundated with 20-40 something year old white guys looking for work in the oil field. Plenty of them are probably legalize-Cramer voters.

They won't be able to vote with the new ID laws if they don't have an address though.

[MT Treasurer]

Wrong, Tester's Coattails will easily close the gap and in fact Heitkamp will also win by 24.

Don’t forget the blue wave and high turnout, which I’m sure is going to very beneficial to Heitkamp in a Trump +36 state where he remains very popular.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Wrong, Tester's Coattails will easily close the gap and in fact Heitkamp will also win by 24.

Don’t forget the blue wave and high turnout, which I’m sure is going to very beneficial to Heitkamp in a Trump +36 state where he remains very popular.

Blue Wave + Morning Consult saying Trump is underwater in North Dakota + Tester Coattails + Retail politics + Candidate Quality = Heitkamp winning 80-20%

[libertpaulian]

Wrong, Tester's Coattails will easily close the gap and in fact Heitkamp will also win by 24.

Don’t forget the blue wave and high turnout, which I’m sure is going to very beneficial to Heitkamp in a Trump +36 state where he remains very popular.

Blue Wave + Morning Consult saying Trump is underwater in North Dakota + Tester Coattails + Retail politics + Candidate Quality = Heitkamp winning 80-20%

It's her flawless, masterful, unbeatable Retail Politics™ that will save her in the end, just you wait!!!

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's okay Dems. Goal should be to at least hold steady or even gain a seat at this point (which is remarkable given the map).

That is the most reasonable best case scenario. The results in Missouri and Indiana will probably the best indicators of how the night turns out for the Democrats' fate in the Senate.

[Mr. Smith]

She won in a landslide before the fall.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, this looks like it's over, while the margin won't be 16 points. Maybe 5-8. Too bad Heitkamp is the one Dem to go, I would prefer to sacrifice Manchin in exchange.

[Badger]

Good riddance to one of the worst Democratic Senators, must be humiliating to lose by such a large margin in what most people think will be a massive Democratic wave year. I’ll keep this as Toss-up because I don’t want to get my hopes up and these red states always fall for Democrats who pretend to be "moderate", but this poll is certainly encouraging.

Just curious, how do you consider Heidi heitkamp one of the worst Democratic senators out there?

I can understand how true believers would disparage Joe manchin or even Dianne Feinstein for not being as liberal as they could be, and likewise I could see how blue dogs and conservatives in general might decry ideological Warriors Like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Etc. But how does a by all accounts genuinely decent and politically independent senator who is relatively moderate and has no odious personality traits or penchant for saying stupid things --unlike a certain North Dakota Congressman for example-- so earn your ire?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Good riddance to one of the worst Democratic Senators, must be humiliating to lose by such a large margin in what most people think will be a massive Democratic wave year. I’ll keep this as Toss-up because I don’t want to get my hopes up and these red states always fall for Democrats who pretend to be "moderate", but this poll is certainly encouraging.

Just curious, how do you consider Heidi heitkamp one of the worst Democratic senators out there?

I can understand how true believers would disparage Joe manchin or even Dianne Feinstein for not being as liberal as they could be, and likewise I could see how blue dogs and conservatives in general might decry ideological Warriors Like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Etc. But how does a by all accounts genuinely decent and politically independent senator who is relatively moderate and has no odious personality traits or penchant for saying stupid things --unlike a certain North Dakota Congressman for example-- so earn your ire?

Yeah I'm a bit confused myself. I remember MTTreasurer/whatever other name he's used being a pretty big Heitkamp cheerleader early into the election. He helped convince me for awhile that she was more favored for re-election than McCaskill or Donnelly. Was it all just sarcasm that I fell for?

[TML]

This poll certainly is atrocious on the surface, but it still doesn't erase the overall lack of reliability of polls conducted here. Remember that in 2016, the forecasted margin by 538 (according to polls tracked by them) was R+23, which was 13 points off the actual result of R+36. In addition, 538's founder also pointed out that the average polling error conducted at this stage of campaigns since 1998 was 6 points, which implies that even polling leads of 10-15 points aren't necessarily considered "safe."