This poll (and most others showing a Heller-lead) could be wrong ...
Here's why:
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-10/2018_state_topline_-_nevada_final_october.pdfAmong all adults, Rosen leads 38-37 with leaners. But among likely voters, she's down 44-49.
That's because only 76% of Democrats say they are "certain" to vote, but 83% of Republicans and 62% of Independents (Rosen actually leads among Indys by 52-19 with leaners).
That is not something that is supported by the early voting numbers, where Democrats seem to have a higher enthusiasm in NV than Republicans, but we'll see ...
