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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Cruz +5
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Author Topic: TX Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Cruz +5  (Read 1170 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 24, 2018, 07:06:45 am »

https://reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1MY18D

Cruz 49
Beto 44
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2018, 07:07:53 am »

I get it, TX is a cool state to poll, but seriously.....
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2018, 07:21:23 am »

English only poll? In Texas? Are you kidding
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Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2018, 07:22:45 am »

English only poll? In Texas? Are you kidding
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10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill..
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2018, 07:24:00 am »


Cruz could be in for a rough night then?
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2018, 07:25:44 am »

Same with Nevada
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Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2018, 07:26:34 am »

He could be, yes. Right now I give Beto 25-30% of a chance - but if more polls come out that are favorable, that percentage will go up.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2018, 07:31:41 am »

If Cruz theoretically is only +5 with English speakers, then this is still a real race.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2018, 08:37:14 am »

I could probably get better results than Ipsos by throwing darts with a blindfold on. Toss it in the trash.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2018, 08:40:45 am »

How the hell did they get Cruz +5 in an English only poll?!
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2018, 08:42:26 am »

Ipsos is the only pollster who has shown Beto up, so they aren't exactly biased against him.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2018, 09:16:26 am »

Why does anyone still take Reuters/Ipsos polls seriously?

I mean, I could kind of understand it when we were getting very little polling, like desperately using a dirty needle to get your quick fix. Kind of. But now, when we're getting tons of data from quality pollsters every day? Come on guys...
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2018, 09:29:09 am »

Why does anyone still take Reuters/Ipsos polls seriously?
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2018, 11:46:27 pm »

#CruzUnder50
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Very Legal & Very Cool
RFA09
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2018, 04:16:56 am »

If Cruz theoretically is only +5 with English speakers, then this is still a real race.

I think it will be within 52-48 either way. A four point turnout based election. I'm hopeful for Beto but I expect Lying Ted to sneak by.
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mgop
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2018, 06:32:47 am »

ted cruisin' to victory
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2018, 08:45:22 am »


Lol, 5 points isnt cruising
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2018, 05:38:03 pm »

My gut tells me the results are going to be too close for comfort on election night at Cruz HQ.
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PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2018, 05:59:02 pm »


Um, what is with all the Weeping and wailing about ipsos polls? Genuine question as, after all the blathering about what a crappy poster they are, I looked it up and it turns out Fivethirtyeight gives them a B+ rating with a 0.6 democratic mean average bias.

That hardly screams unreliable to me. If anyone can come up with a better reason to dispute this poor as perhaps more than a or so friendly to Rourke due to in-house bias , I'm all ears.

Otherwise, O'Rourke down only five points in an English only poll seems pretty encouraging.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2018, 07:05:11 pm »


He's paddling with his hands if anything.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2018, 07:07:31 pm »


Um, what is with all the Weeping and wailing about ipsos polls? Genuine question as, after all the blathering about what a crappy poster they are, I looked it up and it turns out Fivethirtyeight gives them a B+ rating with a 0.6 democratic mean average bias.

That hardly screams unreliable to me. If anyone can come up with a better reason to dispute this poor as perhaps more than a or so friendly to Rourke due to in-house bias , I'm all ears.

Otherwise, O'Rourke down only five points in an English only poll seems pretty encouraging.
This same polling firm had Beto leading by 2% a month ago.
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PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2018, 07:09:32 pm »


Um, what is with all the Weeping and wailing about ipsos polls? Genuine question as, after all the blathering about what a crappy poster they are, I looked it up and it turns out Fivethirtyeight gives them a B+ rating with a 0.6 democratic mean average bias.

That hardly screams unreliable to me. If anyone can come up with a better reason to dispute this poor as perhaps more than a or so friendly to Rourke due to in-house bias , I'm all ears.

Otherwise, O'Rourke down only five points in an English only poll seems pretty encouraging.
This same polling firm had Beto leading by 2% a month ago.


Yes, but that doesn't begin to answer my question as to why it is supposedly unreliable.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2018, 07:29:50 pm »

Latinos and Blacks make up the largest majority out of any state, in TX, 25%, black. Unlike in MD, where they will go with Hogan, if there is a wave in the House, TN, MS and TX will flip
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