REAGAN LOSES 1984, What the Future holds
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  REAGAN LOSES 1984, What the Future holds
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Author Topic: REAGAN LOSES 1984, What the Future holds  (Read 5210 times)
Reaganfan
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« on: October 22, 2005, 06:22:04 AM »

1984: President Ronald Reagan, the Republican nominee and Vice President George Bush are running for re-election against former Vice President Walter Mondale, the democratic nominee, and his running mate Rep. Geraldine Ferraro. Although he began the campaign with a sizable lead, President Reagan begins trailing in the polls after Mondale's campaign begins to pick up more and more momentum. By Fall of 1984, President Reagan is neck to neck with Vice President Mondale in the polls after performing badly in the first presidential debate. Mondale's impressive showing in the first debate gives his campaign an extra push, and he begins to lead Reagan in most polls, by about 46 to 40% nationally, with 14% undecided or voting for another candidate.

 Rep. Geraldine Ferraro loses the Vice Presidential debate to Vice President Bush, and her public opinion goes down, but does not affect the Mondale-Ferraro ticket's lead in the polls. President Reagan continues to mount the best possible campaign, striking that Mondale would weaken the defense of the United States in the Cold War era. Mondale fights back by showing that Reagan's build up of more nuclear weapons has made the United States even more likely to have a war with the Soviet Union. Just days before the election, polls tighten, and Mondale only leads Reagan nationally by two points, 50-48% with 2% undecided. Election night shows that the 1984 election will be one of the closest elections in US History.

In the end, Walter Mondale does surprisingly well in the states of Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida. The election comes to a 269 to 269 tie...however, a few hours later, Walter Mondale narrowly wins the unexpected Democratic win of New Hampshire, and is elected the 41st President of the United States.

Mondale/Ferraro: 273*
Reagan/Bush : 265



1988: President Reagan left office in 1984 with high approval ratings, and was even wanted by some people to run for President again in 1988. However, he declined wishing to enjoy private life from here on out. The Mondale-Ferraro administration was in dire straits come 1987, when President Mondale officially announced his intention to seek re-election, which he had said he would do back in 1984. Mondale's claim of "NEGOTIATING" with the Soviet Union had back fired, and Mondale's relationship with Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev was not one of friendship. Polls taken showed that nearly 45% of Americans still feared the threat of nuclear war, and polls also showed Mondale's approval rating down to 28%, the lowest approval rating of any president since Harry Truman's 23% approval rating in November of 1951. Mondale began his campaign promising to continue talks with the Soviet Union, and to get rid of the high unemployment rate in his second term.

Many Republicans saw the weak Mondale-Ferraro administration as the perfect opportunity to gain back the White House. So, up to seven Republicans joined the race for the Republican nomination:::

Former Vice President George H.W. Bush
Senator Robert Dole of Kansas
Governor James Thompson of Illinois
Senator Warren Rudman of New Hampshire
Governor Terry Branstad of Iowa
Governor Dick Thornburgh of Pennsylvania
Governor Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

In the Iowa Caucus, early polls showed Branstad and Dole in a neck to neck lead with Bush trailing third, and Alexander and Rudman in a neck to neck battle for fouth place. However, the Iowa Caucus results were as follows:::

Branstad: 38%--- Dole: 36%--- Bush: 18%--- Alexander: 4%--- Rudman: 3%--- OTHER: 2%

Thornburgh, and Thompson dropped out of the race after the Iowa Caucus.

With Branstad currently the apparent frontrunner for the GOP, polls showed how Branstad would stack up against President Mondale. Most polls showed that Branstad would beat Mondale by only a few points, but inside the margin of error. Bush's campaign began to become increasingly hostile towards the Branstad campaign as well as the Dole campaign. Polls showed Bush gaining in New Hampshire, just second to Dole and with Rudman trailing in third. The New Hampshire Primary results were as follows:::

Bush: 46%--- Dole: 40%--- Rudman: 10%--- Branstad: 4%

With Branstad losing so badly in New Hampshire, and losing his momentum in national polls, he decided to drop out of the race.

Bush made a comeback in the primaries, beating Bob Dole in the end, with Rudman having dropped out after South Carolina. Former Vice President George H.W. Bush was nominated at the Republican National Convention in New Orleans, LA in August 1988. Vice President Bush chose Lamar Alexander as his running mate at the convention. Polls after the conventions showed that Mondale's convention had only gotten five points bounce in the polls, while Bush's convention got a ten point bounce. Polls after both conventions showed Bush-Alexander leading Mondale-Ferraro by 55 to 42% with 3% undecided. Bush was said to have won all the Mondale-Bush debates, and Lamar Alexander and Vice President Ferraro debated a draw.

Bush pushed the message for peace between the Soviets and the United States by being a strong leader, rather than a weak leader like President Mondale, and also stressed lowering taxes and helping create more jobs. Mondale stressed the message of continued talks with the Soviet leader, and a balanced budget. On election night, all polls showed Bush leading, and most showed him leading by a sizeable margin. The election results were as follows:::

Bush-Alexander: 451*
Mondale-Ferraro: 87



MORE LATER...
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King
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2005, 02:45:53 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2005, 02:49:07 PM by King™ »

Scenario doesn't make sense.  You say Reagan still has high approval ratings yet loses states where Mondale barely got into the 30s.

Also, how would Mondale even make it past the Democratic Primary unopposed on 28% approval ratings when Johnson failed and Carter barely made it on approval ratings in the low 40s?
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Gabu
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2005, 02:49:58 PM »

I liked my timeline, because it at least didn't even try to make sense. Cheesy
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2005, 03:11:03 PM »

Scenario doesn't make sense.  You say Reagan still has high approval ratings yet loses states where Mondale barely got into the 30s.

Also, how would Mondale even make it past the Democratic Primary unopposed on 28% approval ratings when Johnson failed and Carter barely made it on approval ratings in the low 40s?

Reagan becomes very unpopular throughout the entire campaign.

He eventually won the primary...he was backed by his party, since they thought he was the best show at not losing the election.
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Gabu
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2005, 03:17:58 PM »

Reagan becomes very unpopular throughout the entire campaign.

How did this happen?  I can't think of anything save for Reagan eating dead babies that would have made him unpopular enough to lose to Mondale.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2005, 03:31:59 PM »

Reagan's "LOSS OF ABLENESS" due to old age, Mondale's youth, and the ongoing negative campaign from Walter Mondale.
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Gabu
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2005, 04:07:35 PM »

Reagan's "LOSS OF ABLENESS" due to old age, Mondale's youth, and the ongoing negative campaign from Walter Mondale.

Why wouldn't this have happened in real life?
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King
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2005, 06:12:23 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2005, 06:15:20 PM by King™ »

Reagan's "LOSS OF ABLENESS" due to old age, Mondale's youth, and the ongoing negative campaign from Walter Mondale.

Reagan was still sane in 1984 and how can he be vastly unpopular on Election Day and vastly popular on Inauguration Day?

I still don't see how about 40% of the country in 1988 (Democrats) could vote to make somebody with a 28% nationwide approval rating their nominee and call him "their best choice."
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2005, 11:46:52 PM »

1992: President Bush and Vice President Alexander begin their first two years in office by working to ease tensions between the US and the Soviet Union. By December 1989, something amazing had happened...President Bush and Soviet Primer Gorbachev signed the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which when put into affect, had eliminated over 2,000 nuclear weapons in the world between the Soviet Union and the United States by October of 1992.

Also, in 1990...the Soviet Union removed their troops from Afghanistan, and the Berlin Wall fell. By late 1991, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty or START I had been signed by both sides, further making the future of nuclear war less likely. From 1990-1991, the Gulf War took centerstage, and the United States was successful. President Bush enjoyed 90% approval ratings after the Gulf War, and then in early 1992, the Soviet Union collapsed...and Bush remained with approval in the 80-90% range until summer 1992.

Nevertheless, the Democratic Party still wanted the White House, and they had five candidates in running:::

Former Vice President Geraldine Ferraro
Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas
Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia
Governor Gerald Baliles of Virginia
Senator Max Baucus of Montana

Senators Nunn and Baliles both performed horribly in the Iowa Caucus, and dropped out of the race after it, however..Clinton won Iowa, with Ferraro coming in second and Baucus coming in third. Ferraro was said to have lost the momentum of her unexpectedly popular campaign, however she won huge in the New Hampshire Primary, with Clinton coming in second, and Baucus coming in third. Baucus eventually drops out. Ferraro becomes known as the "Comeback Candidate". In her late 50's, Ferraro ran on the record of economic issues, and that Bush had raised taxes, and lost American Jobs. She ran more against Bush in the primary than her primary opponent Bill Clinton. She ended up winning just enough delegates at the Democratic National Convention in New York City in July of 1992, to win the nomination in one of the closest primary battles in US History. Vice President Ferraro chose Bill Clinton as her running mate at the convention, and made notice that politics may be dirty, but people can always reconcile. Her speech focused mainly on economic issues, and Clinton's speech focused more on family values. Many pundits said Bill Clinton appeared more presidential than Ferraro.

Nevertheless, Ferraro-Clinton was still lagging behind the popular ticket of Bush-Alexander by up to 20 points, with Bush taking a 59 to 37% lead in polls by early October 1992, after the successful reminder that IRNF Treaty had eliminated over 2,000 nuclear weapons in Bush's first four years. With only 4% undecided, and Bush seemingly "clobbering" Ferraro's economic talk with his fantasic record on foreign policy in all three of the Presidential debates. Vice President Alexander was said to have lost the Vice Presidential debate to Governor Clinton, but was said to have performed well nonetheless.

By election night, television screens around the nation flashed with polls and numbers. A poll that was heavily shown on election night was an approval rating poll taken just days earlier, showing President Bush's approval rating at 72%. Many polls showed Bush-Alexander leading Ferraro-Clinton by 15-20 points nationally.

The election night results, were no surprise, with Bush winning in what was said to be a "LANDSLIDE". However, many democratic pundits were quick to point out the surprise democratic win of Arkansas, which was a sign that Democrats could improve in the South. Also, they were quick to point out that Bush's re-election win of 397 electoral votes, were not as many as his 1988 election win of 451 electoral votes. Also, many pundits...democrat and republican, saw Governor Clinton's future as "BRIGHT".
 
Bush-Alexander: 397*
Ferraro-Clinton: 171

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King
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2005, 02:08:46 PM »

What is with this retarded love affair between the Democratic Party and the hated Mondale-Ferraro administration?
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Gabu
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2005, 02:29:26 AM »

How do you have an approval rating of 72% against an opponent who was VP in an administration with an approval rating of 28% when it got kicked out and not manage to break 400 electoral votes?
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King
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2005, 09:57:54 PM »

How do you have an approval rating of 72% against an opponent who was VP in an administration with an approval rating of 28% when it got kicked out and not manage to break 400 electoral votes?

Who knows...
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