|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2020, 01:09:18 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL St Pete's: Scott +0.3 lol
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL St Pete's: Scott +0.3 lol  (Read 1020 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 738
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 22, 2018, 08:19:29 am »

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenate_October21_J83D.pdf

Yes, they have a new poll out already.

Scott 48.6, Nelson 48.3
Logged
History505
Guest
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2018, 08:26:49 am »

Decimals lol.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,113
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.12, S: 0.10

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 08:30:19 am »


Clearly Solid R because of the hurricane bump. 
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2018, 08:38:30 am »

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.
Logged
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,826
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2018, 08:39:52 am »

Hahahahahahahaha. They already released a new one. And man, oh man, that hurricane bump is brutal.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,072
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2018, 08:41:13 am »

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.

NPA's are essentially young people and Puerto Ricans.
Logged
wbrocks67
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,450
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2018, 08:45:06 am »

IIRC, most of the polls of FL recently (1-2 months) have shown Nelson and Gillum with sizeable leads among Indies.
Logged
🌋🌋🌋🌋🌋🌋
DTC
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2018, 08:46:02 am »

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.


High margin of error and sampling error
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2018, 08:47:22 am »

Out with a new poll already? Damn.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,481
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2018, 08:49:14 am »

Gillum was shown winning 9% of Republicans, so their lead among voters who already voted might have a small portion to do with that?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,072
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2018, 08:50:23 am »


I have to imagine they are going to have a weekly release until the election.
Logged
10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill..
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,699
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2018, 08:52:51 am »


I have to imagine they are going to have a weekly release until the election.

Hopefully, that's one or two more this entire season. Isn't this Nelson's best poll so far from SPP?
Logged
President Biden
Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,056
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2018, 09:06:49 am »

#ScottUnder48.7
#NelsonUnder48.4
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2018, 09:33:47 am »

Or people are lying to pollsters or more likely, the subgroup's MOE is very high.

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.
Logged
10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill..
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,699
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2018, 09:38:18 am »

Or people are lying to pollsters or more likely, the subgroup's MOE is very high.

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.

That interviewee fraud is so widespread should be a pretty damning indictment about where the United States is heading in the next twenty years. If that is the case. The point is that no one should see themselves as benefiting from poll interviewee fraud.  It's not a success story or anything to be proud of.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2018, 10:11:05 am »

Or people are lying to pollsters or more likely, the subgroup's MOE is very high.

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.

That interviewee fraud is so widespread should be a pretty damning indictment about where the United States is heading in the next twenty years. If that is the case. The point is that no one should see themselves as benefiting from poll interviewee fraud.  It's not a success story or anything to be proud of.
It probably works both ways and cancels things out, but my guess is it's simply just sample size and MOE that caused this discrepancy.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Moderators
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,694
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2018, 10:18:36 am »

Gillum was shown winning 9% of Republicans, so their lead among voters who already voted might have a small portion to do with that?

Gillum winning 9% of GOP voters seems odd. I wonít complain, but I would have to ask: why would a Republican vote Gillum?
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2018, 11:15:36 am »

Well, this pollster had Scott up 2 before, so I guess there's no hurricane bump, huh?
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2018, 11:56:41 am »

Gillum was shown winning 9% of Republicans, so their lead among voters who already voted might have a small portion to do with that?

Gillum winning 9% of GOP voters seems odd. I wonít complain, but I would have to ask: why would a Republican vote Gillum?

Trying to psycho analyze RINO Tom-like Republicans is a foolís errand

~10% crossover is fairly typical actually. Obama won 10% of Republicans while McCain won 10% of Democrats. The 2012/2016 results were pretty similar. I'm guessing it's just the same people over and over who always vote for the party they're not registered to but are too lazy to switch their party affiliation.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,302
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2018, 02:49:44 pm »

Gillum was shown winning 9% of Republicans, so their lead among voters who already voted might have a small portion to do with that?

Gillum winning 9% of GOP voters seems odd. I wonít complain, but I would have to ask: why would a Republican vote Gillum?

Iíd say a combination of people too lazy to switch their party affiliation, "reasonable" RINO Tom-like Republicans who also vote for people like Clinton, Bredesen, etc. and minority voters/moderates who canít stand Trump and/or DeSantis.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.138 seconds with 15 queries.