Republicans, Brace Yourselves for a Miserable 6 Months

[ilikeverin]

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm certainly masturbating furiously to this topic.

OH ATLAS FORUM TOPIC, YOU'RE SO GOOD

OMG HOTTTTTTTTT

[ATFFL]

From what I've read, the case against Delay is very solid and he will be found guilty on at least one of the charges.

You mean the case where the prosecutors lost a key piece of evidence?

There are other thngs they could nail DeLay with.  This isn't one of them.

Where are you reading that the case is solid and a conviction likely?

[The Duke]

So you don't find it strange that Nixon was in Dallas then?

No. It's a free country. There's no law against going to a big city in the United States.
I don't think anything else even remotely points to him being involved in the murder of JFK anyway.

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Uh huh. So?

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Obviously to tell LBJ to tell GHW Bush to tell Oswald where to aim the gun

Oswald didn't shoot Kennedy.

(Wonder how many of you get that joke.)

Drew Carey Show

[muon2]

Well, at least there is some light at the end of the tunnel.  Welcome back again Mark.

Supersoulty,

There is, but I'm telling you that DARK f%$cking days lie ahead...LOL

I have advised all fellow Republicans with short tempers to take up a new hobby in the weeks to come...don't watch TV news, it will be too depressing.

On a better note, I just got an e-mail from my Cousin who is back in Iraq for Tour #2, and he tells me that things there are FAR better than our left wing media buddies are saying.

In an interesting verification to that, I caught Nic Robertson on CNN supporting the view that things are improving in Iraq. He had to be pushed by the studio anchor a bit, but then came up with two or three areas where he's seen improvement over the last few months.

[muon2]

2. BUT...the Patrick Fitzgerald investigation is about to EXPLODE in our faces in a bigger way than I ever could have imagined. Despite no real hard evidence beyond inference and "common sense" supposition, Fitzgerald will proceed with a host of charges against a host of people up and down the Bush administration. This issue will not stop at Rove and/or Libby. Get ready for the 2005 version of Iran Contra.

Do you believe that Fitz may go as high as the President and Vice President?  I doubt either could be indicted, but maybe unindicted co-conspirator?

Do you think that any of the charges will stick or will most be dismissed?

Thanks.

I've had the opportunity to follow Fitzgerald here in in IL on a variety of cases against figures from both parties. He is extremely methodical, and likes to build a step up case from low levels all the way to the top. Based on his pace here, I wouldn't be surprised if indictments at this stage are used to setup another round in 2006.

[Gabu]

I hope I'm wrong but from what Mark is saying it sounds pretty bleak this time around.

If I recall correctly, Mark said very strongly that Kerry was going to win in 2004 and that there was nothing to be done about it.

[J. J.]

First, I showed up after Mark left, but the post was quite good.

Second, it's really going to depend on the charge, if any.  From a political aspect, perjury is a dead end, for example.  It is going have to be a charge directly related to the Plame disclosure or conspiracy to do something illegal.  Anything short of that, it ends.

[Nation]

Nice to know you're thinking of us when you don't want us getting chafed, Mark.

Also nice to see you back. I'm interested in some more details on this, if you have any.  This could be the first really interesting political story (albeit bleak for the Republicans) in a while.

[Smash255]

First, I showed up after Mark left, but the post was quite good.

Second, it's really going to depend on the charge, if any.  From a political aspect, perjury is a dead end, for example.  It is going have to be a charge directly related to the Plame disclosure or conspiracy to do something illegal.  Anything short of that, it ends.

50/50 on any charges relating to the leak itself, but very likley to see both Rove & Libby face conspiracy & cover up charges.  Both will be fairly serious (Libby's will probably be more serious).  Not out of the question that Cheney could face some type of charges (although it will probably be less severe than what Libby & Rove will face, unless it it is found that Cheney led the whole barrage, which is a possibility).  Bush will probably stay away from any charges, but major charges brought up against Rove & Libby will deeply hurt an already battered President, and any possible Cheney charge will just add insult to injury for the White House.  Even if kittle comes out of this investigation too much damage may have already been inflicted (with this as well as other issues) for Bush to really recover, anything major that comes out of this Bush will probably be down for the count, and you will see a barrage of Congressional & Senatorial Republicans trying to distance themselves from him as much as possible during the next year

[J. J.]

So you don't find it strange that Nixon was in Dallas then?

No. It's a free country. There's no law against going to a big city in the United States.
I don't think anything else even remotely points to him being involved in the murder of JFK anyway.

Let me guess, you actually believe lawyer Arlen Specter's magic bullet theory?

Well, here is the bullet:

 

You'll note that at the end, something has pushed the lead back, leaving a lump.  It's not pristine.  Interestingly, I saw the same Discovery Channel documentary and they were able to match this effect.

One of the great problems with alternative theories is that they don't explain where the bullet came from if it wasn't fired from behind and above.

If you want to start a thread on this subject, be my guest.

[J. J.]

50/50 on any charges relating to the leak itself, but very likley to see both Rove & Libby face conspiracy & cover up charges.  Both will be fairly serious (Libby's will probably be more serious).

It depends.  For the charge to have any political weight, Fitzgerald will have to show a conspiracy to do something illegal in regard to Joe Wilson or Valerie Plame.  A conspiracy do something legal isn't going to pass the giggle test.

[Nation]

I think what some peolpe may not realize is not whether the charges themselves are all that damaging and serious --- but you must all realize how every single Democratic Senator and the vast majority of Democratic Congressmen in the House will use this as an opportunity to overtake the media waves and trash the Bush Administration to a point where serious damage will occur.

[Sam Spade]

The argument between Al and jfern is priceless, I must say so myself.

I doubt (as I have said from the beginning) that charges will appear on the leak itself.  It is looking more and more likely they will appear on some type of perjury/obstruction of justice charges, probably with a little conspiracy thrown in.  However, conspiracy is a really hard thing to prove in court; Fitzgerald may want to go strong on it, but the chances of getting a conviction become lower the grander the conspiracy is.

On DeLay, Ronnie Earle is simply hoping to get a favorable location to conduct the trial (judge+Travis County) and trying to get someone from the other side to talk.  Without both, I place the chances of conviction at 5%-10%.

The charges are simply not that strong, conspiracy is hard to prove, and nothing I've seen within the money-laundering charges so far will cement proof in a court.

I will give updates as time moves forward.  (ladedah)

[J. J.]

I think what some peolpe may not realize is not whether the charges themselves are all that damaging and serious --- but you must all realize how every single Democratic Senator and the vast majority of Democratic Congressmen in the House will use this as an opportunity to overtake the media waves and trash the Bush Administration to a point where serious damage will occur.

It's really going to depend on what it is.  Just like impeachment a few years back, the Dems could very easily overplay their hand.  They've got to appear judicial.  Heck, that came close to sinking Nixon's impeachment before the House Committee.

[Smash255]

I think what some peolpe may not realize is not whether the charges themselves are all that damaging and serious --- but you must all realize how every single Democratic Senator and the vast majority of Democratic Congressmen in the House will use this as an opportunity to overtake the media waves and trash the Bush Administration to a point where serious damage will occur.

It's really going to depend on what it is.  Just like impeachment a few years back, the Dems could very easily overplay their hand.  They've got to appear judicial.  Heck, that came close to sinking Nixon's impeachment before the House Committee.

Granted, but chances are the charges are going to be more serious than what Clinton faced.  Not to mention the charges Clinton faced many people viewed as a witchunt to try nto get anything on Clinton & the head prosecuter was a very partisan figure in Starr, something Fitzgerald is not (& I belive Fitzgerald is actually a Republican). 

While it might be possible the Dems will overplay their handlike the GOP did with the Lewinsky scandal I doubt thats will be the case.  One thing is this is a more serious case, two more serious charges will probably be seen here, and  the differences between the Prrosecuters (one being a hard partisan, the other not)

[MarkDel]

I hope I'm wrong but from what Mark is saying it sounds pretty bleak this time around.

If I recall correctly, Mark said very strongly that Kerry was going to win in 2004 and that there was nothing to be done about it.

Gabu,

Not exactly. What I did say about a week before the election was that it was more likely than not that Kerry would win, and if he did, I was reminding Republicans of their duties as Americans to not behave in the same fashion that Democrats have done the past 4 years. I could go find the exact post if you like.

[MarkDel]

Mark,

It doesn't surprise me that Miers is not worth much.  A lot of us including myself were all over her on day one her the boards.

I have been getting a very bad feeling about the Special Prosecutor these last two days.  So it doesn't shock me that some one might get indicted soon.

Dark days?  Maybe.  But its always darkest before the dawn.  Perhaps some demons need to be excorcised before the party can get its bearings again.  And we had lost our way long before Quagmiers and Rovegate.

I have to agree with you here, John.

The Republican congress has behaved disgracefully on spending, and stands for nothing at this point beyond the maintenance of its own power.  Denny Hastert has become our own Republican version of Tip O'Neill -- big, fat and out of control, at least with respect to government spending.

Of course, I hate the Democrats, and view them as a worse alternative.  But politics should be about a little more than choosing the party you hate the least.  Every party needs a good jolt occasionally to wake up those who have led it astray.

John Ford/Dazzleman,

While I certainly agree with you that the Republican Party is in need of the political version of an "enema" I do not agree that this is a good time for that to take place. If this were a different time in our history, we might be able to afford a Democratic Presidency, but their party has moved so far left on issues of national security that we cannot afford to let one of them sit in the White House in the 21st Century. Perhaps when the Democrats have conquered their own demons and purged themselves of the "Utopian Pacifists" who now dominate their rank and file, then we can endure another Dem in the White House. But for now, Republicans need to put off internal battles for the good of the nation, otherwise I foresee a day when the daily suicide attacks we see in Iraq will be commonplace on US soil, or a major attack will be carried out here involving nuclear and/or chemical weapons. The Democratic Party has firmly established that they do NOT take the threat of Islamic Extremism/Terrorism seriously, and the very future of our nation would be in question with the wrong person sitting in the White House at this moment in history.

[MarkDel]

I just want to confirm to all newcomers that Mark is a reliable source.  He gave  us the John Edwards information 12 hours before the mainstream media broke it.

Boss Tweed,

Thanks, I know that had to hurt considering how much you dislike me.

[MarkDel]

2. BUT...the Patrick Fitzgerald investigation is about to EXPLODE in our faces in a bigger way than I ever could have imagined. Despite no real hard evidence beyond inference and "common sense" supposition, Fitzgerald will proceed with a host of charges against a host of people up and down the Bush administration. This issue will not stop at Rove and/or Libby. Get ready for the 2005 version of Iran Contra.

Do you believe that Fitz may go as high as the President and Vice President?  I doubt either could be indicted, but maybe unindicted co-conspirator?

Do you think that any of the charges will stick or will most be dismissed?

Thanks.

Nick,

Those would seem to be the relevant questions. Unfortunately, I don't have a definitive answer to all of those questions. What I was told by someone I know at Justice is that Rove and Libby will be indicted soon, and other indictments are being prepared over the next several months. Apparently, Cheney will also be named as unindicted co-conspirator in the Rove/Libby/Plame scandal. Also, Fitzgerald is attempting to build a case accusing administration officials (all the way up) of manipulating intelligence related to the decision to go to war in Iraq. Now this is wayyyyyy beyond the power of his mandate, but my source tells me that the normally sensible Fitzgerald has gone NUTS with power and seems to be taking on this role of "ultimate arbiter" on all matters related to decision to go to war in Iraq.

Do I think Rove and/or Libby get convicted? No, they will definitely not be convicted of "outing" Valerie Plame since the evidence there is beyond weak. But, they MAY get convicted of Perjury and/or Obstruction of Justice. As for the other rumored stuff....who the hell knows...it will be too political to predict. Personally, I can't see how Bush, Cheney or anyone else can be in any real legal jeopardy, but in modern America, all that matters is politics, not the truth, not the law, nothing...so who knows what will happen.

[MarkDel]

Nice to know you're thinking of us when you don't want us getting chafed, Mark.

Also nice to see you back. I'm interested in some more details on this, if you have any.  This could be the first really interesting political story (albeit bleak for the Republicans) in a while.

Nation,

I thought you had seen the light and changed to a Republican, what happened?

[Nation]

Nice to know you're thinking of us when you don't want us getting chafed, Mark.

Also nice to see you back. I'm interested in some more details on this, if you have any.  This could be the first really interesting political story (albeit bleak for the Republicans) in a while.

Nation,

I thought you had seen the light and changed to a Republican, what happened?

I'm still a registered Democrat, but you know I'm not exactly the guy they'd want representing the party. I still vote for the individual, not the party. In New York politics, I'm certainly more a Republican than a Democrat. I'm helping out the Republican Mayoral candidate in Buffalo by getting him some time on the radio station I DJ at, 91.3 FM WBNY in B-lo --- and not giving the Democrat, Byron Brown, any time at all. Bwaha.

On the other hand, I dislike Bush a lot right now, so, take that as you will.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Mark,

It doesn't surprise me that Miers is not worth much.  A lot of us including myself were all over her on day one her the boards.

I have been getting a very bad feeling about the Special Prosecutor these last two days.  So it doesn't shock me that some one might get indicted soon.

Dark days?  Maybe.  But its always darkest before the dawn.  Perhaps some demons need to be excorcised before the party can get its bearings again.  And we had lost our way long before Quagmiers and Rovegate.

I have to agree with you here, John.

The Republican congress has behaved disgracefully on spending, and stands for nothing at this point beyond the maintenance of its own power.  Denny Hastert has become our own Republican version of Tip O'Neill -- big, fat and out of control, at least with respect to government spending.

Of course, I hate the Democrats, and view them as a worse alternative.  But politics should be about a little more than choosing the party you hate the least.  Every party needs a good jolt occasionally to wake up those who have led it astray.

John Ford/Dazzleman,

While I certainly agree with you that the Republican Party is in need of the political version of an "enema" I do not agree that this is a good time for that to take place. If this were a different time in our history, we might be able to afford a Democratic Presidency, but their party has moved so far left on issues of national security that we cannot afford to let one of them sit in the White House in the 21st Century. Perhaps when the Democrats have conquered their own demons and purged themselves of the "Utopian Pacifists" who now dominate their rank and file, then we can endure another Dem in the White House. But for now, Republicans need to put off internal battles for the good of the nation, otherwise I foresee a day when the daily suicide attacks we see in Iraq will be commonplace on US soil, or a major attack will be carried out here involving nuclear and/or chemical weapons. The Democratic Party has firmly established that they do NOT take the threat of Islamic Extremism/Terrorism seriously, and the very future of our nation would be in question with the wrong person sitting in the White House at this moment in history.

WTF are you talking about? The majority of the Democrats in the Senate voted to go to war for absolutely no good reason. Bush on the other hand, ignored the 8/06/01 memo warning of imminent attack on the US by Bin Laden, and then he let Bin Laden get away, instead focusing on the irrelevant Iraq.

[The Duke]

Mark,

I agree we can't afford a Democratic President, but three years is a long way off.  Having a bit of a shakeup (Rove, Libby removed, Bush taken down a peg, Hastert discomforted, Frist retiring in shame) now doesn't elect Hillary Clinton President.  In three years, people will elect a President based on the state of the economy, how many troops are in Iraq, and whether another terrorist attack has taken place.  George Allen or whoever will not lose the White House because Scooter Libby went to jail.

I do not believe this "enema" will result in a Democratic President.  The country has by and large rejected the Democratic Party.  If they couldn't beat Shrubya, they pretty much can't beat anyone.

[J. J.]

Granted, but chances are the charges are going to be more serious than what Clinton faced.  Not to mention the charges Clinton faced many people viewed as a witchunt to try nto get anything on Clinton & the head prosecuter was a very partisan figure in Starr, something Fitzgerald is not (& I belive Fitzgerald is actually a Republican). 

It depends.  If the charges are that Libby, Rove, et al., did not give the grand jury information, but there was no underlying crime, it ends.  If Fitzgerald comes up with something like there was a conspiracy to tell the truth that Cheney didn't send Wilson to Niger, it's not going to have political legs.