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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
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Author Topic: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12  (Read 4805 times)
Biden 2020, Haley 2024
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #50 on: October 21, 2018, 02:08:55 pm »

Pretty clearly a bad sample. Gillum doesn't need to win by 12 and he's not going to.

DeSantis is in trouble if even the friendlier polls never show him leading, though. Unless the GOP has been saving a Sinema-style oppo dump for the last few weeks, this race is pretty close to midnight.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #51 on: October 21, 2018, 02:12:38 pm »

Pretty clearly a bad sample. Gillum doesn't need to win by 12 and he's not going to.

DeSantis is in trouble if even the friendlier polls never show him leading, though. Unless the GOP has been saving a Sinema-style oppo dump for the last few weeks, this race is pretty close to midnight.

The fact that Gillum has proximity to that FBI investigation and still is leading comfortably in the polls (mostly) makes me doubt that whatever oppo they could scare up, if any, will be effective. It would have to be some pretty serious stuff. Also, given how desperate DeSantis seems to be getting, I'm not even convinced he would hold on to it until the last minute (which would be unwise anyway, due to early voting).

Most likely scenario here seems to be that DeSantis is a dud candidate on track to lose.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #52 on: October 21, 2018, 02:18:00 pm »

A trend I have noticed. Polls that are considered high quality and have done polls around the USA have shown large leads for Gillum, while polls done by medicore/poor polls based in FL have shown a really close race.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #53 on: October 21, 2018, 02:25:21 pm »

A trend I have noticed. Polls that are considered high quality and have done polls around the USA have shown large leads for Gillum, while polls done by medicore/poor polls based in FL have shown a really close race.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

Introducing the new gold standard, St. Pete Polls!
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #54 on: October 22, 2018, 01:33:21 am »

#Gillumunder55
#DeSantisunder43
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #55 on: October 22, 2018, 09:46:29 am »

If DeSantis doesn't reach low-single digits soon, the RGA should triage this race and focus on Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Iowa.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #56 on: October 22, 2018, 07:31:28 pm »

This is a very encouraging poll from a race that has been unexpectedly encouraging. He won't win by this much though. Gillum winning by anything will make me satisfied though, even if it's by one-twelfth of this.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #57 on: October 22, 2018, 08:06:49 pm »

UWS says tilt R because Scott 61% approvals. FL is lean D
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #58 on: October 22, 2018, 09:11:37 pm »

Triage time.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #59 on: November 12, 2018, 04:07:09 am »

Junk poll!
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #60 on: November 12, 2018, 04:37:44 am »


The poll was fine, it's the electorate that's junk.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #61 on: November 12, 2018, 08:00:42 am »

Iím going to find it hard to trust CNN polls in the future
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #62 on: November 12, 2018, 10:09:41 am »

The Gillum Effect.
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History505
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« Reply #63 on: November 12, 2018, 10:59:26 am »

Lol.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #64 on: November 12, 2018, 12:40:33 pm »

Though the discrepancies between the polls and all that we are learning now point to another conclusion- The election wasn't an election.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #65 on: November 12, 2018, 05:35:23 pm »

2010 Alex Sink, 2014 Charlie Crist and 2018 Andrew Gillum, third midterm in a row, where polls got it wrong in FL.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #66 on: November 12, 2018, 09:02:09 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.

There's the possibility that some folks could simply leave the Senate race blank in the end

Which is exactly what just happened, but in reverse in Broward County!
The ballot designs there are/were awful!
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Strong Candidate
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« Reply #67 on: November 12, 2018, 09:24:18 pm »

Guys, CNN's final poll for this race was Gillum +1. This is clearly a bad poll, but it's unfair to use it to criticize the pollster.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #68 on: November 12, 2018, 09:25:37 pm »

Guys, CNN's final poll for this race was Gillum +1. This is clearly a bad poll, but it's unfair to use it to criticize the pollster.

The race was never Gillum +12 or anywhere close to that.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #69 on: November 12, 2018, 10:11:55 pm »

Good on them at least for not herding.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #70 on: November 13, 2018, 04:33:01 am »

Gillum never lead by 12
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UncleSam
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« Reply #71 on: November 13, 2018, 01:21:44 pm »

Good on them at least for not herding.
This. They probably had a D-friendly sample and a D-friendly turnout model and got a weird result but just went with it. Ultimately itís hard to place too much blame on a pollster for something like this. That being said, if this had been a Rosendale +12 poll everyone here would be saying Ďthis is garbage LOL throw it in the junk foreverí so
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #72 on: November 14, 2018, 07:28:10 am »

Good on them at least for not herding.
This. They probably had a D-friendly sample and a D-friendly turnout model and got a weird result but just went with it. Ultimately itís hard to place too much blame on a pollster for something like this. That being said, if this had been a Rosendale +12 poll everyone here would be saying Ďthis is garbage LOL throw it in the junk foreverí so

We knew it was an outlier from the beginning. But why there was a 5 point discrepancy in the race? Either the election was fraudulent or polls are pretty much useless beyond the methodology because there are too many people that are inherently dishonest or a dishonest as a form of passive aggression against the "fake news" media.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #73 on: November 14, 2018, 11:03:45 am »

I hate polling!!!!!
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #74 on: November 14, 2018, 05:30:46 pm »

This poll is funny, now.
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