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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
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Author Topic: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12  (Read 4854 times)
Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #25 on: October 21, 2018, 11:25:27 am »

Gillum is up by I highly doubt by this much.

Agreed.

Also think Putnam would be keeping it much more competitive

Absolutely
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Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More
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« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2018, 11:28:51 am »

I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.

What would Gillum+5 look like on a map?

Obama 2008 minus Flagler, plus Duval, Madison and Seminole, maybe also plus Sarasota.

Maybe Polk too. Now, a Gillum +{high single digits or more} map would probably be Bill Nelsonís 2012 map minus some of the Demosaur panhandle counties

Maybe Sarasota. Doubt it. I think he takes Hillary + Seminole, St.Lucie, Monroe, Duval, Pinellas, and if this is remotely correct, then Polk and Sarasota.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2018, 11:38:58 am »

So Gollum is more popular than Obama in 2008.   We will see.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #28 on: October 21, 2018, 12:07:37 pm »

DeSantis is garbage.

But remember the KY-GOV 2015 polls? Remember the US Presidential 2016 polls?

FL GOP will realize that yes, Florida is a center-right state, but it is not Kansas or even Arizona-level right-wing.

Putnam would have had the race as Tossup.
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Lourdes
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« Reply #29 on: October 21, 2018, 12:09:20 pm »

Nice!
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Zaybay
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« Reply #30 on: October 21, 2018, 12:16:38 pm »

While disapproval of Trump is rather high in this poll, at least when compared to St Pete and other mediocre polls, its rather clear what is going on.

1. Gillum is leading DeSantis by a good amount

2. Nelson is favored in his race
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #31 on: October 21, 2018, 12:17:33 pm »

DeSantis is garbage.

But remember the KY-GOV 2015 polls? Remember the US Presidential 2016 polls?

FL GOP will realize that yes, Florida is a center-right state, but it is not Kansas or even Arizona-level right-wing.

Putnam would have had the race as Tossup.

Worst way to make a case for an election outcome is to say "but 2016" wrt polls.

Florida polls for 2016's presidential race were accurate.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #32 on: October 21, 2018, 12:17:43 pm »

Lol I predicted this. We've had 3 polls this month of Gillum being up by more than 7 points. Undecideds are breaking to Gillum. If Gillum achieves this number, the Florida Senate is likely to flip, and federally you have districts 6, 15, etc competitive. As someone who is working with the campaign on the ground I am not surprised by these numbers. Will it be as high as 12 points? Maybe not but I think Gillum +4-7 Is possible.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #33 on: October 21, 2018, 12:25:06 pm »

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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #34 on: October 21, 2018, 12:28:14 pm »



I'd rather trust independent pollsters than internals, I've been working on the ground plus other polling suggest a much bigger win than that. But I guess limoliberal is gonna be limoliberal.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #35 on: October 21, 2018, 12:30:46 pm »



I'd rather trust independent pollsters than internals, I've been working on the ground plus other polling suggest a much bigger win than that. But I guess limoliberal is gonna be limoliberal.

I'm not even sure those "internals" are real, given that it's a random reporter reporting them and only showing margins, not even mentioning actual numbers.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #36 on: October 21, 2018, 12:33:44 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #37 on: October 21, 2018, 12:44:46 pm »

ANDREW GILLUM LADIES AND GENTLEMEN
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #38 on: October 21, 2018, 12:46:10 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Swing voters certainly arenít the brightest despite their portrayal as magical RINO Tom-esque unicorns in the media
I mean, Gillum is running as the anti-Scott.  

Gillum: "Scott has screwed up our state for the past 8 years.  Let's not elect another 4 years of him, even if he goes by a different name!"

Florida Voter: "I agree!  Let's bring change to Tallahassee!"

Rick Scott: "I'm running for Senate!"

Florida Voter: "Ooh!  Our economy is nice, and he handled the hurricanes really great!!"

Bill Nelson: "Uh...Red Tide Rick!  I'm an astronaut!"

Florida Voter: "I'm voting for Scott!  Sure, I think he's corrupt from Tallahassee, but I trust him to have federal control of my life, not to mention the lives of 300 million other Americans!"

I mean...do Florida voters REALIZE they have to go through these types of mental gymnastics?!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #39 on: October 21, 2018, 12:47:47 pm »

This is one of those threads that will inevitably be bumped the day after the election.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #40 on: October 21, 2018, 12:49:25 pm »

This is one of those threads that will inevitably be bumped the day after the election.
Wen Gillum wins by 30
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #41 on: October 21, 2018, 12:51:52 pm »

This is one of those threads that will inevitably be bumped the day after the election.
This won't be the only one. Wink
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OneJ
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« Reply #42 on: October 21, 2018, 12:57:03 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


My best guess of what one might look like. Tongue

Gillum/Scott voter: Nelson has been in office for far too long. We need new blood. I like what Scott's been doing for our state. I'll vote for Scott.

Also Gillum/Scott voter: DeSantis loves making a fool out of himself. I like Gillum. He's enthusiastic or whatever.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #43 on: October 21, 2018, 12:59:19 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


My best guess of what one might look like. Tongue

Gillum/Scott voter: Nelson has been in office for far too long. We need new blood. I like what Scott's been doing for our state. I'll vote for Scott.

Also Gillum/Scott voter: DeSantis loves making a fool out of himself. I like Gillum. He's enthusiastic or whatever.

Yeah, remember how many Trump/Greitens/Kander there were? Swing voters donít base their votes on actual issues, lol.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #44 on: October 21, 2018, 01:02:35 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.

There's the possibility that some folks could simply leave the Senate race blank in the end
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gottsu
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« Reply #45 on: October 21, 2018, 01:10:25 pm »

I am taking this poll with a little pinch of salt as a moderate outlier. Gillum leads, but not by double digits.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #46 on: October 21, 2018, 01:17:54 pm »

Clearly an outlier, but I'll let atlas have their fun for the day...enjoy it people.
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OneJ
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« Reply #47 on: October 21, 2018, 01:19:57 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


My best guess of what one might look like. Tongue

Gillum/Scott voter: Nelson has been in office for far too long. We need new blood. I like what Scott's been doing for our state. I'll vote for Scott.

Also Gillum/Scott voter: DeSantis loves making a fool out of himself. I like Gillum. He's enthusiastic or whatever.

Yeah, remember how many Trump/Greitens/Kander there were? Swing voters donít base their votes on actual issues, lol.

Especially considering that in a scenario in which Kander becomes Senator he would likely vote to McCaskill's left despite her already being fairly to the left of MO.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #48 on: October 21, 2018, 01:49:47 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Swing voters certainly arenít the brightest despite their portrayal as magical RINO Tom-esque unicorns in the media
I mean, Gillum is running as the anti-Scott.  

Gillum: "Scott has screwed up our state for the past 8 years.  Let's not elect another 4 years of him, even if he goes by a different name!"

Florida Voter: "I agree!  Let's bring change to Tallahassee!"

Rick Scott: "I'm running for Senate!"

Florida Voter: "Ooh!  Our economy is nice, and he handled the hurricanes really great!!"

Bill Nelson: "Uh...Red Tide Rick!  I'm an astronaut!"

Florida Voter: "I'm voting for Scott!  Sure, I think he's corrupt from Tallahassee, but I trust him to have federal control of my life, not to mention the lives of 300 million other Americans!"

I mean...do Florida voters REALIZE they have to go through these types of mental gymnastics?!

The problem is you're assuming they're doing any mental gymnastics or justifications. They are not.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #49 on: October 21, 2018, 01:50:42 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Swing voters certainly arenít the brightest despite their portrayal as magical RINO Tom-esque unicorns in the media
I mean, Gillum is running as the anti-Scott.  

Gillum: "Scott has screwed up our state for the past 8 years.  Let's not elect another 4 years of him, even if he goes by a different name!"

Florida Voter: "I agree!  Let's bring change to Tallahassee!"

Rick Scott: "I'm running for Senate!"

Florida Voter: "Ooh!  Our economy is nice, and he handled the hurricanes really great!!"

Bill Nelson: "Uh...Red Tide Rick!  I'm an astronaut!"

Florida Voter: "I'm voting for Scott!  Sure, I think he's corrupt from Tallahassee, but I trust him to have federal control of my life, not to mention the lives of 300 million other Americans!"

I mean...do Florida voters REALIZE they have to go through these types of mental gymnastics?!

The problem is you're assuming they're doing any mental gymnastics or justifications. They are not.

That's true. These type of voters are too dumb to even be able to do either of them.
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