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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
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Author Topic: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5  (Read 2606 times)
SirWoodbury
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« Reply #25 on: October 21, 2018, 10:21:00 am »

This poll is obviously garbage. They rushed this right after the hurricane. This explains Nelson's unrealistic lead in this poll, because right now the panhandle is in turmoil. And the inhabitants there have more bigger problems than the senate race. Infact, this poll is pretty bad for Nelson. With the panhandle being mostly underpolled, he should be leading by 10+ They published this poll to mislead people in to believing that Scott never really had a hurricane bump to begin with. When we get closer to election day, with the panhandle recovering we will see a surge for Scott in the polls.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2018, 10:23:27 am »

This poll is obviously garbage. They rushed this right after the hurricane. This explains Nelson's unrealistic lead in this poll, because right now the panhandle is in turmoil. And the inhabitants there have more bigger problems than the senate race. Infact, this poll is pretty bad for Nelson. With the panhandle being mostly underpolled, he should be leading by 10+ They published this poll to mislead people in to believing that Scott never really had a hurricane bump to begin with. When we get closer to election day, with the panhandle recovering we will see a surge for Scott in the polls.

lol
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President Biden
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« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2018, 10:27:47 am »

This poll is obviously garbage. They rushed this right after the hurricane. This explains Nelson's unrealistic lead in this poll, because right now the panhandle is in turmoil. And the inhabitants there have more bigger problems than the senate race. Infact, this poll is pretty bad for Nelson. With the panhandle being mostly underpolled, he should be leading by 10+ They published this poll to mislead people in to believing that Scott never really had a hurricane bump to begin with. When we get closer to election day, with the panhandle recovering we will see a surge for Scott in the polls.
But Atlas told me only Democrats unskew polls.
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bilaps
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« Reply #28 on: October 21, 2018, 10:28:29 am »

What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

CNN was one of the most pro-Trump news outlet during 2016. Billions of dollars in free airtime playing full rallies without interruption or commentary.

They did it because of ratings and one could make a case that Trump exposure was to get him to win R primary cause he was thought to be the weakest candidate.

Really, I don't want to go all dems and unskew this poll but on the issue of CNN it's pretty stupid to have someone claim they were or are pro Trump at any time.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #29 on: October 21, 2018, 10:31:56 am »

What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

Imagine being dumb enough to think CNN is biased towards Clinton...

They are. Liberal Media. Nuff said.

Lmao.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #30 on: October 21, 2018, 10:33:25 am »

What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

Imagine being dumb enough to think CNN is biased towards Clinton...

They are. Liberal Media. Nuff said.

Yes because being being located in a big city where many elites who are socially liberal means by default they were biased towards Clinton.

By that standard Fox, based out of NYC, is liberal media too
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #31 on: October 21, 2018, 10:35:46 am »

This poll is obviously garbage. They rushed this right after the hurricane. This explains Nelson's unrealistic lead in this poll, because right now the panhandle is in turmoil. And the inhabitants there have more bigger problems than the senate race. Infact, this poll is pretty bad for Nelson. With the panhandle being mostly underpolled, he should be leading by 10+ They published this poll to mislead people in to believing that Scott never really had a hurricane bump to begin with. When we get closer to election day, with the panhandle recovering we will see a surge for Scott in the polls.

The part of the state Michael affected isnít even enough of the population to shift a poll 2 points, nevermind 15.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #32 on: October 21, 2018, 11:05:10 am »

Considering the gubernatorial has Gillum up by 12, this is still tossup, but I like seeing this poll.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #33 on: October 21, 2018, 12:00:00 pm »

I doubt Gillum wins by 7+ points, so Nelson better hope he's not underperforming Gillum by 7 points. But this is the only poll to show a spread that big, and seems like an outlier.
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Canis
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« Reply #34 on: October 21, 2018, 12:42:34 pm »

Imagine being a Gillum/Scott Voter lmao
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #35 on: October 21, 2018, 12:49:11 pm »

I doubt Gillum wins by 7+ points, so Nelson better hope he's not underperforming Gillum by 7 points. But this is the only poll to show a spread that big, and seems like an outlier.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #36 on: October 21, 2018, 12:57:09 pm »

I doubt Gillum wins by 7+ points, so Nelson better hope he's not underperforming Gillum by 7 points. But this is the only poll to show a spread that big, and seems like an outlier.
Well, the gap between Obama and Nelson was larger in 2012. And the gap in 2006 was enormous. We'll see what happens
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Republicans for Biden
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« Reply #37 on: October 21, 2018, 01:10:07 pm »



Florida Republican election night 2018 celebrations.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #38 on: October 21, 2018, 01:16:44 pm »

Strangely, or perhaps not, my model keeps wanting to predict ridiculously high voter turnout in Florida. It's significantly higher than 538's expected 52% turnout. Although I might have to take Michael into account, I suppose it does make some sense. Turnout was 51% in 2014, and that was a terrible year for turnout on a national scale. Since this year is expected to feature much higher turnout nationwide, the same thing might happen in Florida, especially since there's a competitive Senate race happening.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #39 on: October 21, 2018, 01:22:36 pm »

Still a toss-up, but Nelson had and still has the edge here.

The combination of Nelson and Gillum on the ticket may just work out fine, since both drive different kinds of voters to the polls.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #40 on: October 21, 2018, 01:32:44 pm »

Scott wasn't gonna defeat Nelson
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DataGuy
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« Reply #41 on: October 21, 2018, 01:37:42 pm »


https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1030887840622764033

Just replace 25% with 35%.
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2016
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« Reply #42 on: October 21, 2018, 02:08:35 pm »

In the new NBC News/WSJ National Poll Trumps JA is 45-52 among Likely Voters...YET CNN claims Trump is - 8 in FL. That is garbarge by CNN.

CNN polled thus far in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri and Florida AND except for Texas they have Democrats up in every other Poll.

CNN/USAToday/Gallup was a very decent combination but they stopped after the 2004 Election. Since then is has gone a long way down for CNN.

MAN, I wish Bill McInturff & Fred Yang who are the braintrust behind the NBC/WSJ Poll would poll Statewide Races. They are both a ton better compared to every other Pollster. They correctly predicted Clinton winning the Popular Vote in 2016 despite losing the EC.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #43 on: October 21, 2018, 02:39:11 pm »

In the new NBC News/WSJ National Poll Trumps JA is 45-52 among Likely Voters...YET CNN claims Trump is - 8 in FL. That is garbarge by CNN.

CNN polled thus far in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri and Florida AND except for Texas they have Democrats up in every other Poll.

CNN/USAToday/Gallup was a very decent combination but they stopped after the 2004 Election. Since then is has gone a long way down for CNN.

MAN, I wish Bill McInturff & Fred Yang who are the braintrust behind the NBC/WSJ Poll would poll Statewide Races. They are both a ton better compared to every other Pollster. They correctly predicted Clinton winning the Popular Vote in 2016 despite losing the EC.

They are both only one poll. Both could be right, both could be wrong. But just go by the averages. Will Nelson win by 5? Probably not. But is Trump's approval 45-47%? Probably not.
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2016
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« Reply #44 on: October 21, 2018, 04:07:22 pm »

In the new NBC News/WSJ National Poll Trumps JA is 45-52 among Likely Voters...YET CNN claims Trump is - 8 in FL. That is garbarge by CNN.

CNN polled thus far in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri and Florida AND except for Texas they have Democrats up in every other Poll.

CNN/USAToday/Gallup was a very decent combination but they stopped after the 2004 Election. Since then is has gone a long way down for CNN.

MAN, I wish Bill McInturff & Fred Yang who are the braintrust behind the NBC/WSJ Poll would poll Statewide Races. They are both a ton better compared to every other Pollster. They correctly predicted Clinton winning the Popular Vote in 2016 despite losing the EC.

They are both only one poll. Both could be right, both could be wrong. But just go by the averages. Will Nelson win by 5? Probably not. But is Trump's approval 45-47%? Probably not.

Here are Trumps JA in every State CNN/SSRS has polled this year...
AZ 39/57
FL 43/51
MO 51/45
NV 45/51
TN 49/48
TX 49/48

CNN/SSRS says that the Likely Florida Electorate next month will be 40-37-23 D/R/I, a D+3 Electorate YET if you look at the Ballots that have already been returned it's 44R/38D/17I.

If you look at past MidTerms in FL

2006 FL-GOV Exit Poll
R 40
D 36
I 24
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/FL/G/00/epolls.0.html

2010 FL-GOV Exit Poll
R 36
D 35
I 27
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/16/2010-florida-and-ohio-governor-elections-how-the-unadjusted-exit-polls-were-forced-to-match-the-final-recorded-vote/

R 35
D 31
R 33
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/FL/governor/#exit-polls

If we have a D+3 Electorate in FL that would be the first time in History in a MidTerm.

Do you really believe Trumps JA in Florida is worse than in NV? I don't think so.
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Councilor CookieDamage (L-NJ)
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« Reply #45 on: October 21, 2018, 04:27:36 pm »

Atlas: I hate trolls

Atlas: *interacts with obvious trolls regularly; consistently debates troll like 2016 and hofoid knowing that they only empower trolls to continue being annoying*
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2016
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« Reply #46 on: October 21, 2018, 04:31:04 pm »

Atlas: I hate trolls

Atlas: *interacts with obvious trolls regularly; consistently debates troll like 2016 and hofoid knowing that they only empower trolls to continue being annoying*

Democrats = Angry Mob like Trump says and Trolls as well.
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Fuzzy Will Kick Covid's Ass!
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« Reply #47 on: October 21, 2018, 11:36:11 pm »

Folks, I assure you from experience that putting 2016 on ignore is blissful. I highly recommend doing it (in no small part, I admit, as I hate reading his awful posts bumped by others Tongue).
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The Mikado
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« Reply #48 on: October 22, 2018, 12:30:30 am »

I don't think Nelson wins by 5, though this poll is a good sign for him.

A deep pit in my gut keeps saying that this is going to be one of those classic Florida specials where the race comes down to within half a point and we don't know until the next day at the earliest.
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Councilor CookieDamage (L-NJ)
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« Reply #49 on: October 22, 2018, 02:05:34 am »

Folks, I assure you from experience that putting 2016 on ignore is blissful. I highly recommend doing it (in no small part, I admit, as I hate reading his awful posts bumped by others Tongue).
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