After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:
Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944
Total votes: 1,975,437
These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.
I think it will be over 2 Million Votes. How do you come up with these Numbers? Sinema would need to win Maricopa County to win the Election and she won't win that County. The last Democrat to win that County running in a Statewide Race I believe was former Governor Janet Napolitano in 2006. Dems haven't won Maricopa in a Governor, Senate or Presidential Race ever since.
we actually won it in 2014, in a downballot race. Besides, I don't see how you could say that unless mcsally was leading every poll by 3+ points in every poll. Sinema will likely win it regardless of the winner of the overall race.