After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:
Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944
Total votes: 1,975,437
These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.
I'd be interested in seeing how you arrived at those numbers. They do seem plausible.
