Will a Republican presidential nominee exceed 65% with white voters?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Discuss.

[Camaro33]

I think yes, eventually. But it will only occur after a left wing Democrat is president when policy and rhetoric from Washington is slandered against white people and identity politics is rampant.

[dw93]

No. I think they've about maxed the White Vote. White Millennials, while still IRC Republican leaning, are much less Republicans than generations prior to them. Not since the GI Generation did you have such Democratic whites. For this reason alone, I don't think they'll exceed 65, hell I'd be somewhat surprised if they exceeded 60%, as even in 2012 and 2016 they got around 59 and 58%.

[Person Man]

Maybe in a 10 point landslide like this.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/2dVDP

[Technocracy Timmy]

The only times in American history where this has occurred was 1972 and 1984.


I’m not seeing it in the near future. White millenials are just far too Democratic relative to their white elders to get the GOP past 65% with the white vote. Long term it’s tougher to guess since this assumes that we can accurately predict if assimilated Hispanics/Asians will vote in the same numbers for Democrats in the future as they do today. Democrats will likely have to rely on getting 35-39% of the white vote to win presidential elections even as late as the 2050’s. And of course whiteness changes. Italians are viewed as white today due to intermarriage with lighter skinned Anglos despite their southern Italian ancestors being brown(er) skinned.

[warm istanbul]

I think it depends. As white people make up a smaller and smaller share of the population they could react by becoming increasingly fearful of a supposed "non-white threat". But that is assuming the next generation of voters is as racist as the current one

[Tekken_Guy]

In the future, anything is possible..

But it won’t be anytime soon. Until the GOP abandoned the white identity politics. Younger whites, especially women, don’t feel victimized like that. It’s like expecting all men to support MRAs.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Not any time soon, 2016 was likely where the GOP maxed out considering it was the first election where the Millenial+Gen X vote combined matched the Boomer vote and Democrats will gradually perform better among Whites as those two groups increasingly constitute more of the electorate. Millennial Whites in particular are quite left-leaning.

[RINO Tom]

Doubt it, but who knows?  Certainly possible in a blowout.

[Beet]

Maybe after two terms of Kamala Harris

[Continential]

Maybe when my generation will vote

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

The only times in American history where this has occurred was 1972 and 1984.

I expect a few similar landslides will happen this century, so it will probably happen again.

[warm istanbul]

Millennial Whites in particular are quite left-leaning.

The plurality of them voted for Cheeto

[dw93]

Millennial Whites in particular are quite left-leaning.

The plurality of them voted for Cheeto

Yes, but Hillary was Cheeto's opponent.

[ON Progressive]

Millennial Whites in particular are quite left-leaning.

The plurality of them voted for Cheeto

The margin was also significantly less than other white age groups.

To answer the OP's question, no. As has been said here, white youth are just too Democratic to allow a Republican to break 65% with whites.

[President Johnson]

Maybe after two terms of Kamala Harris

That was exactly my thought. But depends on how she governs.