Safe D race is Safe D. Even if the red wave is real, Menendez will win.
OMG NJ is close!! Competitive even!!! Then reality sets in and the Dems win by at least 10. The only time Jersey can swing Republican is if the Democrat is a crook, but I doubt this seat is changing hands although Menendez is a complete scumbag. Perhaps it's a 5-10 point win instead of a 15-20 point one at the end of the day.
Well the difference is that there's no one defending Menendez. There are plenty of people who defend Cruz, and some who will defend a vote for Blackburn, but I don't see many people say, "Yeah, Menendez is a great guy, OR 'yeah, Menendez sucks but here's why you should vote for him."
Basically the best argument for him is that he's a D and NJ is D and the Senate is on the line in a Trump midterm. That barebones argument will get him to something like 45% in a state like New Jersey, but where's the other 5% going to come from?
